In today’s briefing:
- UK Structurally Unemployed
- BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy
- Crypto Week Unleashes a Bitcoin Blitz and Sparks the Altcoin Catch-Up
- CX Daily: AI Foray Is Teaching China’s Edtech Firms a Valuable Lesson
UK Structurally Unemployed
- Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
- That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
- The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.
BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)
- HSI poised to break 25k for first time since 2022. Next resistance 27100. Hong Kong market outperforming global markets by wide margin since our BUY was initiated in March 2024.
- Financial, materials and healthcare sectors leading the market higher as tech sector consolidates. China shares still offer the best valuation metrics in Asia.
- Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) , renamed Damai Entertainment has seen increased analyst attention as the company becomes the Live Nation Entertainment, Inc (LYV US) of China.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy
- Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.
- Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.
- Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.
Crypto Week Unleashes a Bitcoin Blitz and Sparks the Altcoin Catch-Up
- U.S. “Crypto Week”—GENIUS Act signed, CLARITY + anti-CBDC bills advanced—promises fresh stable-coin liquidity, yet practical impacts will lag the market’s rapid pricing.
- Bitcoin touched a $123k ATH on $19 bn YTD ETF inflows, while ETH and SOL still sit 20–30 % below prior highs despite Q2 gains of +35% and +24%.
- Altcoins caught up fast—XRP led the charge, ETH also outpaced BTC, while SOL trailed peers—showing a brisk, uneven rotation away from Bitcoin dominance.
CX Daily: AI Foray Is Teaching China’s Edtech Firms a Valuable Lesson
- AI / In Depth: AI foray is teaching China’s edtech firms a valuable lesson
- Wells Fargo /: Wells Fargo executive barred from leaving China amid criminal probe
- Tax /: Chinese investors face 20% tax bill on offshore trading profits
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
