In today’s briefing:
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries
- Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook
- [Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds
- Overweight Europe and Japan Equities
- [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
- HEM: Pausing Policy Easing
- Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries
- WTI futures fell by 0.9% for the week ending 28/Feb, marking its sixth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and demand concerns.
- WTI fell 3.8% in February, its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and bearish economic indicators pressured prices.
- WTI OI PCR rose to 0.98 on 28/Feb from 0.95 on 21/Feb. Call OI increased by 7.4% WoW, while put OI rose by 10.5%.
Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
- Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023
- Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024
- North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook
- For the week ending 28/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of milder weather forecasts and expectations of weakening demand.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 1.00 on 28/Feb from 1.04 on 21/Feb. Call OI fell by 9.5% WoW, while put OI decreased by 13.3%.
- Put OI was notable at the 2, 2.5, and 3 strikes, while call OI was concentrated at 4, 5, and 6.
[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds
- Gold miners’ revenue grew 4% QoQ in Q1 2025, the highest in 15+ years, driven by rising gold prices and demand.
- Gold markets face volatility with rising COMEX inventories and widening futures-spot spreads, but signs of stabilization are emerging.
- GLD ETF is bearish, breaking key support, while options data show bullish sentiment with strong call interest above $3000.
Overweight Europe and Japan Equities
- On European equities be discerning. While there are some green shoots the European economy is fragile. Value and quality stocks are recommended.
- Sector bias is towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence before moving into consumer discretionary and industrials later in the year. .
- Japan – overweight equites – industrials, banks and consumer discretions – unhedged and underweight government bonds.
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
- Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
- Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
- China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.
HEM: Pausing Policy Easing
- Central banks are advised to slow, pause, or stop reducing rates due to rising inflation and labour costs.
- Inflation is unexpectedly increasing, and labour costs are exceeding target-consistent levels.
- Monetary policy is almost neutral according to activity trends, but rate hikes in 2026 could counteract unnecessary easing.
Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal
- Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his “independence from America” requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar’25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts.
- This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden’s command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports.
- If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports.
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