In today’s briefing:
- Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- Applied Materials Hit By U.S. Export Crackdown: Could This Derail The Semiconductor Equipment Boom?
- Milian Technology IPO Preview: Driving Profitable Expansion Through Yidui and Tietie Apps
- Paychex Inc.: PEO & ASO Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts That Are Driving Our Optimism!
- BT Group Behind the Scenes: How It Plans to Balance Growth, Debt, & Dividends!
- Full Report – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – September 17, 2025
- TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains
- Tactical Alert: Undervalued Stocks Poised to Rally This Week
- Capgemini (CAP FP): WNS – A Bet on the Agentic AI Revolution
- DoubleVerify Is Winning With Programmatic Ads — But How Far Can Flexible Pricing Take It?
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
- A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.
Applied Materials Hit By U.S. Export Crackdown: Could This Derail The Semiconductor Equipment Boom?
- The U.S. government has introduced new export restrictions targeting the shipment of advanced chipmaking equipment to China.
- These rules, enforced by the Bureau of Industry and Security, have landed a heavy blow on Applied Materials, the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
- The company now anticipates a significant $710 million revenue shortfall: $110 million in Q4 2025 and an additional $600 million in 2026.
Milian Technology IPO Preview: Driving Profitable Expansion Through Yidui and Tietie Apps
- Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company has achieved significant traction with now ~10M avg. MAUs.
- Milian Technology has raised ~US$77M in equity financing to date from investors, including Xiaomi, XVC Fund, Shunwei Capital, and Sky9 Capital, among others.
- I believe Milian Technology’s growth is exceptionally high for any online social networking platform company in China at such scale.
Paychex Inc.: PEO & ASO Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts That Are Driving Our Optimism!
- Paychex, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, has reported a strong start to its fiscal year 2026.
- The company achieved a 17% revenue increase alongside a 5% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share in the first quarter.
- This robust performance is attributed to successful integration with its recent acquisition, Paycor, and sustained demand for Paychex’s human capital management solutions despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
BT Group Behind the Scenes: How It Plans to Balance Growth, Debt, & Dividends!
- BT Group’s latest earnings presentation highlights both progress and challenges in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
- The company has aggressively advanced its strategy by focusing on next-generation network connectivity, customer service improvement, and operational simplification.
- However, the company faced both revenue pressures and structural shifts in the market.
Full Report – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – September 17, 2025
- Japan System Techniques Co., Ltd. (hereafter, JAST or the Company) is a fully independent system integrator.
- The Company’s business portfolio consists of the DX&SI business, the Package business, the Medical Big Data business and the Global business.
- In recent years, the Company has seen an increase in prime contract development projects, and for the current fiscal year it expects net sales to rise for the 15th consecutive year and operating profit to reach a record high for the 11th straight year.
TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains
- Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.
- Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.
- Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.
Tactical Alert: Undervalued Stocks Poised to Rally This Week
- China Mobile (941 HK) and Meta (META US) are both oversold according to our quantitative tactical models.
- We have been discussing China Mobile (941 HK) before, in early September, we said the pattern was bearish (“brief rally then down again”) , but now this has changed.
- Meta (META US) is a different story, looks like a bearish pattern but it is very oversold, it could rally 2 weeks before going lower.
Capgemini (CAP FP): WNS – A Bet on the Agentic AI Revolution
- Capgemini’s acquisition of WNS is aiming to transform its BPO capabilities through AI. The acquisition, at a 35–40% premium over Genpact, boosts Capgemini’s BPO revenue share to 8%.
- The strategic rationale hinges on leveraging AI to move the BPO model to outcome-based, intelligent operations. While WNS brings industry-specific platforms and early digitalisation, AI adoption is still nascent.
- Capgemini targets 7% EPS accretion by 2027 via synergies, though the high acquisition price leaves limited margin for error. Short-term share price impact is likely muted until margin gains emerge.
DoubleVerify Is Winning With Programmatic Ads — But How Far Can Flexible Pricing Take It?
- DoubleVerify Holdings (DV) reported notable growth in its second quarter of 2025, with revenues rising by 21% to $189 million, surpassing the company’s previously revised guidance.
- This result reflects broad-based expansion across DV’s three key revenue areas: activation, measurement, and supply side.
- The advertiser business, representing 91% of the company’s total revenue, also mirrored this robust growth rate of 21%, marking its strongest quarterly growth since late 2023.
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