In today’s briefing:
- FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!
- JD Industrials IPO – Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go
- Swiggy Possible Placement – US$1bn Raising, Will Be Well Flagged, Might Not Be Well Liked
- A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- JD Industrials IPO (7618 HK): Valuation Insights
- Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility
- Unisound AI IPO Lockup (9678.HK): ~US$1.6B Early Lockup Release for Co-Founders
- Nvidia’s $2 Billion Synopsys Bet: AI Chip Design Just Got A Massive Upgrade!
- Shopify BREAKS DOWN On Cyber Monday: Can It Afford Another Slip-Up?
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
- Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
- The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.
Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!
- Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
- The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically. Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
- Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.
JD Industrials IPO – Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go
- JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO.
- JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
- We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.
Swiggy Possible Placement – US$1bn Raising, Will Be Well Flagged, Might Not Be Well Liked
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The company now plans to raise another US$1bn worth of fresh funds.
- Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and possible placement.
A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
- The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
- What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.
JD Industrials IPO (7618 HK): Valuation Insights
- JD Industrials (7618 HK) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$420 million.
- I previously discussed the IPO in Jingdong Industrials (JDI) IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.
Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility
- Marvell Technology (MRVL US) became eligible at the last minute for S&P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL US) experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.
- The company’s market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.
Unisound AI IPO Lockup (9678.HK): ~US$1.6B Early Lockup Release for Co-Founders
- Unisound AI Technology, a Beijing-based AI solution provider focusing on the sales of conversational AI products and solutions, completed an initial public offering at HK$205/share in June.
- The company raised HK$251M in its Hong Kong IPO, including additional net proceeds from the over-allotment shares issued upon the full exercise of the over-allotment option.
- The stock peaked at HK$879.00 in September and fell ~41% over the next two months. The company’s early IPO lockup will expire on December 29, 2025.
Nvidia’s $2 Billion Synopsys Bet: AI Chip Design Just Got A Massive Upgrade!
- The recent quarter’s performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing domains.
- Garnering revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, NVIDIA continues to benefit from burgeoning demand in the accelerated computing and AI sectors, setting a new record with a $10 billion sequential revenue growth.
- Such figures underscore the company’s position within the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape.
Shopify BREAKS DOWN On Cyber Monday: Can It Afford Another Slip-Up?
- Shopify’s third-quarter results for 2025 highlight several strategic themes that underlie its current performance and future prospects, balanced by some challenges and considerations that investors should weigh.
- On the positive side, Shopify reported a significant 32% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue, with a notable 38% increase in Merchant Solutions revenue.
- This was largely driven by the rising adoption of Shopify Payments, which has reached a penetration rate of 65%.
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