In today’s briefing:
- NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…
- STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two
- Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive
- Lens Technology A/H Listing – Diversifying but Is Tarrified for Now
- AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!
- President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”
- All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets
- Soluna Holdings, Inc: Announces First Solar Project with 75 MW Facility in Texas
- Fortinet’s Global Playbook: Can It Withstand Geopolitical Chaos & Still Dominate Cybersecurity?
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…
- Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan.
- He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
- NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two
- There could be 1 constituent change (maybe 2) for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in June. The announcement of the potential change will be made after market close on Friday.
- Anker Innovations Technology could replace Suzhou Maxwell Technologies in the index. If AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is added to the index, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment could be deleted.
- Anker Innovations Technology could have opposite flow and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies could have same way flow from passive trackers of other indices on the same day.
Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive
- Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus.
- The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen’s point: “it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed”. The Good Times Keep Rolling.
- This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.
Lens Technology A/H Listing – Diversifying but Is Tarrified for Now
- Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
- Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!
- AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.
- The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.
- This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.
President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”
- China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining.
- China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design.
- Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.
All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets
- By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
- The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
- If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.
Soluna Holdings, Inc: Announces First Solar Project with 75 MW Facility in Texas
- Soluna is on a mission to make renewable energy a global superpower using computing as a catalyst.
- The company designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure that transforms surplus renewable energy into global computing resources.
- Soluna’s pioneering data centers are strategically co-located with wind, solar, or hydroelectric power plants to support high-performance computing applications including Bitcoin mining, generative AI, and other compute-intensive applications.
Fortinet’s Global Playbook: Can It Withstand Geopolitical Chaos & Still Dominate Cybersecurity?
- Fortinet’s first-quarter 2025 financial results showcased a mixture of strong operational metrics and cautious forward-looking guidance amid broader economic uncertainties.
- On the positive side, Fortinet reported significant financial achievements, with total revenue rising by 14% year-over-year to $1.54 billion.
- This growth was largely driven by product revenue, which increased 12%, and was complemented by service revenue, which similarly grew by 14%.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- US treasuries climbed yesterday, with yields declining in the long end.
- This came on the back of a solid auction of 2Y notes, as well as a rally in JGBs on signs that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance to ease market volatility.
- The yield on the 2Y UST edged down 1 bp to 3.98%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 7 bps to 4.45%.
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