In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
- TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
- Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jan-2025): Apple’s supply chain shifts to India and China.
- Cellnex Share Repurchase Programme: Valuation and Potential Impact on Stock Price
- Wisetech Global Ltd : Valuation Summary – December 13, 2024
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.
TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
- TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
- Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?
TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.
- 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
- 2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn.
- The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS. This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
- Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.
- AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),
Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
- Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025
- In Q4 2024, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) ranked fourth in China (mainland) smart phone market, achieving the highest annual growth among the top vendors at 29%.
- Chinese government’s recently expanded subsidy program now covers smartphones and wearables, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000. This could boost demand growth in 2025.
- China’s smartphone market rebounded in 2024, driven by affordable premium designs driving upgrade demand in the mass market while innovations like GenAI, foldables, and proprietary systems attracted high-end users.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook
- In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.
- The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.
- The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jan-2025): Apple’s supply chain shifts to India and China.
- Apple suppliers shifting focus to India and China for iPhone production growth, adapting supply chains to changing markets.
- Jensen Huang boosting AI chip production by visiting SPIL’s new Taiwan factory; Huawei’s Mate X6 smartphone making global comeback in EMEA markets.
- TSMC forecasting 5% revenue decrease in 1Q25, setting record capex for 2025; India-US tech ties in jeopardy due to export controls on AI chips.
Cellnex Share Repurchase Programme: Valuation and Potential Impact on Stock Price
- Share Repurchase Programme: EUR 800M buyback (4% of market cap) aims to cancel shares, boosting EPS and shareholder value, funded by non-core asset sales.
- Valuation Insight: Current market price significantly undervalued versus EUR 42.68 consensus target and EUR 43.80 DCF valuation, offering substantial upside potential.
- Strategic Alignment: Ensures financial discipline (DFN/EBITDA 5–6x target by 2025/2026) while enhancing returns via repurchase programme and increased dividend payouts from 2026 onward.
Wisetech Global Ltd : Valuation Summary – December 13, 2024
- To establish a comparable universe we benchmarked and divided into tiers the 25 most comparable companies after a preliminary screen of over 2,000 technology listed companies.
- To derive reliable forecast assumptions, we conducted ratios trend analysis (using income statement ratios, balance sheet common size analysis, liquidity ratio and operating statistics, leverage ratios, and additional profitability ratios) as well as a comparative ratio analysis (the same ratio analysis as per above for each company in the peer group, as presented below), which allowed us to develop multiple forecast scenarios and sense check the forecasted financials.
For the purpose of the final recommendation we used the “Upside” scenario, to show that even with optimistic forecasting assumptions, fundamentals fail to justify the current market price.
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