In today’s briefing:
- Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
- Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?
- Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?
- AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?
- AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity
- Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote
- Alphabet 4Q’24 Update
Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
- Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
- This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
- The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May.
- The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer.
Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer
- On the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
- The Offer Price is HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th February, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA says “fair and reasonable”.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?
- TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
- Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
- Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?
- Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
- How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
- Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.
AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?
- Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
- AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
- H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.
AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.
- 4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.
- Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.
- Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity
- TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
- ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
- ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level
Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote
- Pentamaster International (1665 HK)’s IFA opines that Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 February.
- The IFA analysis is biased because it conveniently ignores a relative valuation analysis, which would show that the final offer is unattractive compared to its global peers.
- Disappointingly, there is little minority opposition to an arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging valuation multiple discrepancies across two exchanges.
Alphabet 4Q’24 Update
- Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.
- Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.
- I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”.
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