In today’s briefing:
- Regarding Next Monday’s SOL AI Semis TOP 2 Plus Rebalance
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation
- MiniMax-W: Beware the Throat-Cutting Competing Model From Anthropic
- StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s “Cheapness” Is Still A Punt
- How Much Ahead Does Samsung Electronics’ Share Price Look Forward Change in Operating Profit?
- Aequitas: Gpixel IPO Lockup – Cornerstones Could Look to Sell, Shares Are Well Above Deal Price
- Jio Platforms Ltd (1797135D IN): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (08 Oct 2026)
- Jio Platforms Pre IPO: Steadily Broadening Its Band
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Prelim – ₩107T Clears a Lower Bar; the Selling Was Plumbing
- TSMC (2330 TW): 3Q26 Preview – The Beat Is Known and Priced; Margin and the Q4 Guide Decide 15 Oct
Regarding Next Monday’s SOL AI Semis TOP 2 Plus Rebalance
- Jusung and Hanmi Semiconductor remain mcap Top 4, but weak momentum Z scores keep both low probability inclusion candidates for Monday’s 0167A0 rebalance.
- Samsung and Hynix stay Top 2; Samsung E-M, Square, Isu and Daeduck hold Top 4. TES stays, with Simmtech, Fadu and Hana Micron likely replacing PSK, VM and Wonik IPS.
- Simmtech is the strongest inclusion candidate, with ~KRW 200bn passive inflow, over 4% of float and ~1x recent DTV, making it a key name to watch Monday.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2026.
- We expect two ADDs and two DELs for December 2026. We also estimate there to be ~US$118mn in one-way flows including the effects of capping.
MiniMax-W: Beware the Throat-Cutting Competing Model From Anthropic
- Anthropic released Haiku 5.5 on 7 Oct at an OpenRouter list price of USD0.10 per 1M input tokens and USD0.50 per 1M output tokens.
- We analysed Haiku 5.5’s competitiveness against five Chinese models, including MiniMax-M3, on intelligence scores and OpenRouter list prices.
- We reiterate our short view on MiniMax, as M3.1 is unlikely to match Haiku 5.5 and MiniMax faces a placement overhang.
StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s “Cheapness” Is Still A Punt
- Genting Bhd (GENT MK) is trading “cheap” to Genting Singapore (GENS SP). However, the cleaner, more liquid, GENS is the better play.
- Preceding my comments on GENT and GENS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
How Much Ahead Does Samsung Electronics’ Share Price Look Forward Change in Operating Profit?
- In this insight, I revisit the growth in the quarterly operating profit/operating margins of Samsung Electronics in the past 16 years and compare them against their actual share price performances.
- I remain moderately Bullish on Samsung Electronics since the first two pros (super cheap valuations and huge shareholder returns) outweighs the cons, in my view over the next 3-6 months.
- Certainly, we are not in the 2nd/3rd round of the super AI semiconductor cycle. We are probably closer to the 7th/8th inning. Nonetheless, time seems to be running out.
Aequitas: Gpixel IPO Lockup – Cornerstones Could Look to Sell, Shares Are Well Above Deal Price
- Gpixel (3277 HK) raised around US$332m in its Hong Kong IPO in April 2026. The lockup on cornerstones is set to expire soon on 16 October 2026.
- Gpixel is a provider of CMOS image sensors (CIS), products widely used in industrial imaging, scientific imaging, professional photography and video, as well as medical imaging.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Jio Platforms Ltd (1797135D IN): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (08 Oct 2026)
- Valuation Tension: Jio Platforms is targeting a post-money valuation of ₹10.3 trillion to ₹12 trillion ($114 billion to $146 billion) for its upcoming October 21, 2026 IPO. However, public market investors are debating the justification of this premium over Bharti Airtel, given that Jio’s ARPU of ₹215.6 significantly lags Airtel’s ₹264 as of Q1 FY27.
- FWA-Driven Capex Shift: While Jio’s 5G standalone (SA) network carries over 55% of its data traffic, direct monetization remains elusive. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA via JioAirFiber) is the primary growth engine with 14 million subscribers as of June 2026, but this comes at the expense of high capital intensity, with equipment and rental costs nearly doubling in FY26.
- Balance Sheet Cleansing: The structured ₹30,000 crore to ₹37,700 crore IPO is a 100% fresh issue designed to repay ₹27,500 crore of debt at the telecom subsidiary level (RJIL). This shift from a rumored Offer for Sale (OFS) was driven by valuation disagreements with minority financial backers (Meta and Google) and the urgent need to shore up cash flows as RIL transitions past its peak investment cycle.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Jio Platforms Pre IPO: Steadily Broadening Its Band
- Jio Platforms has filed for an India IPO. The company is a technology platform combining mobile, fixed broadband and digital services.
- Jio Platforms intends to use the proceeds for prepayment, in full or in part, of the principal amount outstanding of certain borrowings and for general corporate purpose.
- Jio Platforms’ strong market presence, brand recognition, coupled with consistent subscriber addition does make this issue attractive for investors.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Prelim – ₩107T Clears a Lower Bar; the Selling Was Plumbing
- 3Q26 prelim OP ₩107.4T (+20.0% QoQ): 0.7% below our ₩108.2T, 1–2% above a street bar that fell 7% since August. Revenue ₩195T is 2.6% light on the won.
- The 2.4% fall was plumbing: ETF rebalancing, options expiry and the end of the ₩15T buyback, which absorbed ~76% of September’s selling. Samsung fell less than the KOSPI.
- BULLISH, TP ₩400,000 held (+53%). At 3.9x consensus FY27E, the market doubts 2028, not 2027. January’s ₩55–75T could be five times the buyback that just ended.
TSMC (2330 TW): 3Q26 Preview – The Beat Is Known and Priced; Margin and the Q4 Guide Decide 15 Oct
- 3Q26 revenue is NT$1,494bn (+17.6% QoQ, +50.9% YoY), about US$46.7bn: 2% above the top of guidance and 2.3% above consensus. The beat is a public fact, no surprises.
- A known beat moves nothing, AI stocks have been sticky. In July a beat-and-raise cost the ADR 4–6%; Micron’s went nowhere. Margin, the Q4 guide and capex decide 15 Oct.
- Maintain BULLISH, FV NT$3,450/US$545 held. We model 67.0% gross margin and EPS NT$29.2. Do not chase into the print; own it in Taipei, not the ADR (17% premium).
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