In today’s briefing:
- The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
- [ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
- Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin
- VNCE: Snapping the Store; Moving to Another Winning Season; Reiterate Buy, PT
- Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity
- LEXX: Second Quarter Results
- Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates
The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
- The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
- When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
- What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.
[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
- For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
- Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
- Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.
Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
- Demand for Auto & Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
- Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs.
- Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) revenue grew 19% YoY to $2.3B in 1Q25. Procedures volume grew ~17% YoY, which boosted instruments and accessories revenue.
- The company placed 367 da Vinci surgical systems, compared with 313 in 1Q24. It included 147 da Vinci 5 systems, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
- Intuitive has raised the procedure growth guidance range from 13–15% to 15–17%, while trimming down gross margin to the range 65–66.5% from 67–68%, due to tariffs.
VNCE: Snapping the Store; Moving to Another Winning Season; Reiterate Buy, PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $6 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
- We believe the company has continued to drive strong in-store results with impressive product offerings, continued expansion of the color palette, a deepening commitment to the men’s arena (and accessories), a focus on key tops and providing seasonal twists to key items such as sweaters and dresses.
- Further, Vince continues to focus on full price selling, maintaining discipline during key events in terms of overall price cuts, which we believe will help overall returns.
Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity
- 1Q better than guided, 2Q a bit better but margins and net income remain very low. Reiteration that 1Q25 is the trough. Mngt mentions concerns about “the macro” and “tariffs”.
- CEO emphasizes “it won’t be easy” to fix products, manufacturing, culture. Re-org is coming but no details. Lower Opex but “we have not yet identified what that means for headcount”.
- Consensus continues to expect a swift runaround into 2026. Based on this optimistic forecast, the stock trades at 18x 2026 EPS. Too many unknowns.
LEXX: Second Quarter Results
- Lexaria is a biotechnology company seeking to enhance the bioavailability of multiple drug agents using DehydraTECH (DHT), its technology using oral and topical delivery.
- It combines lipophilic APIs with specific fatty acid and carrier compounds followed by dehydration.
- DHT offers several attractive features: substantial improvement in bioabsorption in terms of time to measurable plasma levels & AUC, brain permeation, taste masking & side effect reduction.
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates
- First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates.
- Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.
- First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.
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