Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Bullish US, Gold, IonQ , Lennar Corp A, Crude Oil, Navan, Honeywell International and more

• Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
• Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
• Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).

• Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update. 
• They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
• And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US)  and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too. 

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is setting up an offshore headquarters in Taipei, and is currently in the process of acquiring land.
• Taiwan’s central government is currently ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while Taipei City is governed by a mayor from the Kuomintang (KMT), creating political complications.
• Politics often takes precedence over economics, yet in a democracy, politics is driven by competing parties—inevitably leading to conflicts of interest.

• Tether has bought significant amounts of gold, acquiring 19 tonnes in the first half of the year
• Gold prices have surged, surpassing $4000 an ounce and hitting $6000 Australian dollars per ounce
• The market is seeing a shift towards gold as a safe haven asset amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Gold and bitcoin are both scarce assets that are gaining renewed attention as investors seek resilience in their portfolios
• Gold has a long history as a store of value and tends to come into focus during uncertain times, while bitcoin is a newer digital asset with evolving investor access
• Factors such as economic growth, geopolitical risks, and interest rates can impact the attractiveness of gold and other non-yielding assets in a portfolio

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• IonQ, valued at $12 billion, is shifting focus from quantum hardware to software and hybrid solutions amid industry challenges.
• The company reported only $3.1 million in hardware revenue last quarter, indicating a decline, alongside $4.5 million from consulting and cloud services.
• Investor sentiment is cautious, reflected by a short interest of 14.8% and a borrow cost of 0.5%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• LEN shareholders can exchange stock for MRP at a 6.38% premium, with an upper limit of 4.1367 MRP shares per LEN share.
• Odd-lot holders (99 shares or less) are prioritized and exempt from proration; oversubscription is expected, applicable to odd-lot positions only.
• The final exchange ratio is determined by VWAP from November 3-5; borrow risk for MRP exists, potentially impacting hedged positions.

• Crude oil futures were sharply lower Friday, extending the previous session’s losses as oversupply fears and tariffs returned, while the Gaza ceasefire was seen eroding the risk premium.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.71/b (2003 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $65.02/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.81/b against a previous close of $61.51/b.
• Thursday’s selloff had already wiped out most of the week’s steady gains amid a growing chorus flagging concerns over a significant oil surplus for this quarter and beyond, while additional losses Friday dragged benchmarks down to fresh four-month lows.

• Navan is offering 36.9mm shares at $24-$26 and will debut on October 31st invoking a 20-day effectiveness rule during the current government shutdown.
• Their revenue grew 33% year-over-year from $402 million in fiscal 2024 to $537 million in fiscal 2025.
• Navan (formerly TripActions) is led by two high-profile co-founders who previously sold had a business acquired in this space.

• Recently, Blackstone published a report titled “Investing in the Picks and Shovels of AI.” You can read the report here.
• One image from the report that caught my eye was the growth in data that will be consumed and stored.
• One natural beneficiary of this massive increase in data is Western Digital (WDC) and its hard drive business.