India: HDFC Bank, SBI Cards & Payment Services and more

We expect regulatory convergence on the back of the RBI’s recent narrative for digital lenders although FinTech BNPLs are likely to sustain their superior user experience. Within a bouquet of BNPL options, credit cards remain the most exhaustive and profitable and, in fact, offer an up-sell opportunity for credit-tested top-of-the-BNPL-pyramid customers. India’s Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) is positioned as a source of gateway credit and poised to grow to USD56bn by FY26 (~5% of digital P2M payments) on the back of rising ecommerce and digital payments penetration.

We initiate on SBI Cards with BUY and RI-based target price of INR1,100. SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Cards), India’s second largest credit card issuer, has established itself as an enviable franchise, delivering on all fronts (~40% EPS CAGR from FY18 to FY20, ~5-6% RoA, prudent risk management, etc.). With a balanced customer acquisition strategy across open market and banca (SBI), SBI Cards has diversified its revenue streams (fee income at ~50% of total income) to drive earnings, which is poised for a 45% EPS CAGR over FY21-FY24E.