In today’s briefing:
- Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap
- StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
- China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
- Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
- Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
- There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.
Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
- TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
- In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
- Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
- Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
- The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
- China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
- Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
- Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
- Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.
Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
- Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
- Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
- If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
- The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
- The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
- The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
- The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
- Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
- While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
- The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
