In today’s briefing:
- Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors
- FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
- A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- [Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- 2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
- ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors
- Mao Geping Cosmetics (1318 HK) raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, the firm offers a wide range of Color cosmetics and Skincare products.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
- Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
- The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.
StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
- At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy‘s words: “Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise.”
- Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
- The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
- What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.
China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
- The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
- I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
- But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
- In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
- Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.
2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
- Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey.
- SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.
- Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.
ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares.
- The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December).
- The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
- Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
- Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.
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