In today’s briefing:
- De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
- Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
- [Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
- Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: Rare Sector-Neutral ADDs Vs DELs Trade with Positive Momentum
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
- TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price
- Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Some New Expectations; Try Sector-Neutral Pairs
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
- With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
- As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
- There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
- Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
- The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.
Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
- In February Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share after getting the cold shoulder for months.
- Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) was asked to bid, and they did a week ago, bidding ¥4,500/share. Yesterday the Shibaura CEO was in an article saying an overbid would be considered.
- Mid-Day, I boomeranged my piece, saying I thought Yageo would overbid. Today after the close, Yageo has overbid with a whopping ¥5,400/share bid, with unchanged start date of 7 May.
[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
- Last night, Topcon Corp (7732 JP) announced that KKR had agreed a deal with ValueAct Capital who owns 14.62% of Topcon to have VAC tender shares and invest in Bidco.
- Topcon’s Special Committee saw nothing wrong with this in terms of fairness. I think that argument needs to be investigated at a broader level.
- If Bidder wants 50.1% control and expects passive to agree, and Bidder gets 50.1% to join Bidco at terms, obviously, majority of minority disappears. This is an unintended loophole.
Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer
- On the 22 July 2024, waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
- On the 17th March 2025, all pre-conditions were (finally) satisfied.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 12th May, with payment on or before the 10th June. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable“.
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: Rare Sector-Neutral ADDs Vs DELs Trade with Positive Momentum
- STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the June 2025 index rebal event.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
- All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value.
- There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.
TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price
- TRYT (9164 JP) was bought by EQT years ago and IPOed on TSE Growth in July 2023 at ¥1,200/share. The shares tanked on Day 1, almost reached ¥1,000 days later.
- Then they fell, and fell some more, reaching the ¥370s early in Q1, then again post Trump tariff announcement. EQT still holds ~60%. Shares closed at ¥374 on 16 April.
- In February, there were noises about EQT putting the business up for sale, reportedly seeking an offer close to ¥1,200/share. Now there are noises of a Second Round.
Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely
- KRX’s move on SK Enmove this morning ramps up the odds of an SKI rights issue.
- Timing’s again the key — unlike POSCO Future M, this isn’t a clean setup. Word is SK may wait for H2 rate cuts and a more risk-on market backdrop.
- So, doesn’t look near-term — likely post-June once local tape firms up. Watch quirky local hot money flows that front-run moves like this.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Some New Expectations; Try Sector-Neutral Pairs
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.
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