In today’s briefing:
- Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- SKT Foreign Room Play Heating up — Entry Could Come Sooner than Expected with Today’s Fine Out
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
- [Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
- HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
- A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
- MIXUE IPO Lockup – US$480m Cornerstone Lockup Release
- Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
- The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
- BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
- Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
- The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
- Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.
SKT Foreign Room Play Heating up — Entry Could Come Sooner than Expected with Today’s Fine Out
- SKT foreign room rising ahead of PIPC sanction decision today; fine confirmation could trigger ESG fund exits.
- Large ESG money still in SKT; post-sanction exits could push foreign room past 25% sooner than expected — a key factor for trading setup.
- Nov review momentum could hit early; post-fine, a foreign room surge toward 25% signals our entry, with the pullback setting up the SKT Nov inclusion trade.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
- A day before the close of Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s offer, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has strategically stated that it expects to receive FEFTA approval by 10 September.
- Minebea had tried to convince shareholders that its lower offer provides an opportunity to monetise their shares quickly and with certainty. This line of reasoning is no longer credible.
- As Minebea will not increase its offer or extend the closing date, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)‘s Board will have to recommend Yageo’s offer.
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
- Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
- Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
- Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”
HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
- HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
- Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
- This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.
A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
- It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
- HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
- HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
- Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
- True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
- Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.
MIXUE IPO Lockup – US$480m Cornerstone Lockup Release
- Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance
- Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
- The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 23.7% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
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