In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- 2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics
- The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
- Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
- The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
- StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
- Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
- Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
- There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.
2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics
- Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
- Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
- Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
- Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
- The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
- Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
- I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.
The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger
- In Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
- That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That’s close. SMALL EFFECT.
- Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
- The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
- At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
- At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.
StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
- StubHub Holdings (STUB US) went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.
- StubHub Holdings (STUB US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.
- The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.
Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track
- Hamee reported earnings on September 12, and the stock traded down ~6%.
- The headline earnings looked awful but they included many one time and/or non cash expenses.
- To me, the underlying business looks strong. The spin-off is on track for early November, and I expect it to serve as a hard catalyst to drive shares higher.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
