In today’s briefing:
- Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
- [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
- Inconsistently Dovish Pricing
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
- Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
- [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
- Labour’s Collapsing Credibility
- Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
- There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.
Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
- A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
- There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
- This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
- After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
- This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
- This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.
Inconsistently Dovish Pricing
- Dovish market fears from April have unwound for the Fed, yet deepened for the BoE, despite broadly resilient data and cautious guidance from policymakers reluctant to cut.
- Equity prices have relied on this resilience to recover, yet expectations for extended rate-cutting cycles imply it breaks. Payrolls only forced half of the gap to close.
- We expect ongoing resilience to keep rolling market pricing for rate cuts later, with the unnecessary easing ultimately never being delivered by the BoE, Fed, or ECB.
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities.
- In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
- Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO’s intrinsic value.
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
- KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).
- Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
- There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.
[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too.
- Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.
- Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.
Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
- KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
- KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Labour’s Collapsing Credibility
- Labour failed to campaign on a platform up to the UK’s structural problems, depriving it of the support to deliver change in its first year. Reform UK now lead most polls.
- Spending cut U-turns compound the fiscal hole exposed by the slippage of optimistic assumptions, making further tax hikes and more persistent deficits seem inevitable.
- Far-centrism has been rejected, but challenges to Labour’s right and left break its ability to triangulate back towards success. Investors may not stay so forgiving.
Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel
- Market focus is now on retroactive impact — existing treasury holdings above 10% must be canceled within a year, flipping earlier expectations that they’d be exempt.
- DP’s fast-tracking the bill, targeting a September vote and mid-October go-live, with this Commercial Act tweak topping their legislative priority list.
- Excel below shows 230 stocks above the 10% treasury cap, including 35 large-caps — prime candidates for momentum trades as the mandatory buyback burn bill gains steam.
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