In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow
- [Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- [Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
- SBI Shinsei Bank IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Peers Mini-Rally Will Help
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
- At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
- The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
- There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
- The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
- We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.
[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693
- Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP). At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.
- There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they’ll offset that.
- This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
- The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
- There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+
- The Nikkei came out post-close with an article saying that KKR had offered “more than 10%” (“higher than ¥2,800”) for Mandom Corp (4917 JP) vs the revised ¥2,520 CVC Bid.
- Mandom announced a revision to the Opinion Statement to include some but not a lot of details. That triggers an extension to the deal, closing 5 Jan vs 18 Dec.
- The language in the Mandom release is kind of interesting. This price gets us closer, but it may not be high enough.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.
- I previously discussed the IPO in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive.
- The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.
SBI Shinsei Bank IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Peers Mini-Rally Will Help
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, raised around US$2.1bn in its Japan listing.
- SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
- We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
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