In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
- Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
- The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today
- Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
- Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.
CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
- Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
- CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.
[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
- The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
- After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
- Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
- Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
- Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
- The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
- The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.
Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
- Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
- Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.
- CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not.
The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
- First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
- Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
- The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent. A stake it acquired twenty years ago.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today
- TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session
- UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short
- ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short
Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young
- The long-standing divorce case between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and his estranged wife Roh So-young refuses to end.
- Rather, the Supreme Court of Korea overturned a lower court ruling that ordered Chey Tae-won to pay 1.38 trillion won ($973 million) to Ro So-young.
- Our NAV valuation of SK Inc suggests implied market cap of 25.8 trillion won or target price of 355,918 won per share, which is 63% higher than current levels.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
