United States: 2-Year US Treasury Note Futures, CRB Commodity Index, Belite Bio, NFT, Celsius Network and more

• The Fed’s 75-bp rate hike was widely expected by the market.
• We expect CT10 of 4% at year end and we see rising risk on the upside now that the war between Russian and Ukraine has no end in sight.
• Slowing growth and uncontained inflation is spread-negative for Asian bonds, in our view, as rising rates will increase its refinancing risk.

• Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China’s zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week
• Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low
• Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone

• Belite Bio (BLTE US) shares jumped 383% from its IPO price of $6 (announced in late April). Its lead candidate LBS-008 is in clinical trial for currently untreatable eye diseases.
• LBS-008 continues to be well-tolerated. Interim safety and preliminary efficacy data from ongoing two-year phase 2 trial remained positive in Stargardt disease.
• Belite is well-funded to commercialize its pipeline. With the progression of the clinical trial and more data readouts, we believe further stream is left in Belite Bio’s share price.

The things that are important in the next crypto cycle will be created when the price is low and attention is fleeting. 

Sorare for example is a project that was built during the last time crypto dipped this hard between 2017 and early 2020. 

Through this newsletter, and outside of it, I’m lucky enough that many people reach out with their projects very early on. Some for advice, some to evangelise. 

• Phase 1 of bear markets is a piece of cake: it feels more like a healthy correction. 
• Phase 2 looks more is peak chaos and peak pain. It’s when hen things go South bad. 
• Phase 3 is when tedium kicks in, and people genuinely contemplate their lives’ decisions.