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China Archives | Page 120 of 198 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief China: Luzhou Laojiao Co Ltd A, Pacific Basin Shipping, Growatt Technology, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?
  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Continue to Thrive in a Sound Market
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Impressive Profitability Growth from Riding on Industry Tailwinds
  • Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources
  • Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

China Beverage: Baijiu – The Most Addictive & Profitable Alcoholic Beverage in This Planet?

By Douglas Kim

  • Baijiu, the most popular liquor in China, is perhaps one of the most addictive and profitable alcoholic beverages in this planet.
  • The focus of this insight is a pair trade (go long on Luzhou Laojiao and go short on Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery).
  • The major reasons for this pair trade include higher sales growth rate and ROE for Luzhou Laojiao as well as capitalize on the recent share weakness of Luzhou vs Jiangsu.

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Continue to Thrive in a Sound Market

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) had an impressive 1H22 with 204.2% YoY growth in underlying profit. Overall dividend payout ratio of 75% is also ahead of expectations.
  • It covered 58% Handysize days and 64% for Supramax for 2H22, though rates are lower HoH as spot market retreated. However, low costs mean it’s still enjoying very fat margin.  
  • Its 0.96x P/B for FY22 and 0.85x for FY23 look well justified by ROEs of 40.4% and 25.6%. Strong profitability and cash flow will allow for sustained high dividend yield.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Impressive Profitability Growth from Riding on Industry Tailwinds

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption and energy digitalization. 
  • The firm has seen strong revenue growth on the backdrop of global PV inverter and energy storage industry tailwinds despite the effects of COVID-19.

Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: KWG Living Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, 21Vianet Group, Country Garden Holdings Co, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Digital Turbine, ABM Investama, Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd, Tencent, Concord Healthcare Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert
  • VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners
  • Country Garden – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather
  • Asia HY Trade Book – July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH) – Potential for Reversals Despite Short-Term Pressure on Performance
  • Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK) Pre-IPO: Accumulated Loss and Cash Burn Cloud Growth Prospects

Alibaba Dual-Primary-Listing: An Opportunity to Raise Money Without A Trouble Alert

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced yesterday that it is seeking to change its listing status in Hong Kong to a primary listing before the end of 2022.
  • With the risk of de-listing from the US, a dual-primary-listing in Hong Kong would allow Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) to smoothly transition all its trading from the US to Hong Kong.
  • In addition, the company could possibly use this opportunity to raise more money from capital markets as it is desperately seeking funding for its loss making ventures.

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for 21Vianet Group (VNET US). Considerations are at a preliminary stage.
  • A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   
  • Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity.     

Country Garden – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view Country Garden as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company’s projects are geographically spread across China, albeit concentrated in Tier 3 and 4 cities. Demand in lower-tier cities is weak, amid poor market sentiment and strict COVID-19 related measures. Positively, Country Garden has a broad debt maturity profile and access to onshore markets.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Country Garden is “Negative”, given expectations of a significant decline in contracted sales and weakening credit metrics amid challenging market conditions. The company has substantial exposure to low-tier cities with weak economic fundamentals. Recovery in these cities will likely be much slower than in high-tier cities, especially with pandemic-related disruptions that would further dampen market sentiment. That said, we believe Country Garden maintains a good cash collection rate, has an adequate liquidity buffer and enjoys good access to onshore funding.

Controversies are “Material”, with the escrow account for Country Garden’s Fuzhou projects having been frozen by local authorities due to customer complaints about poor quality. The matter has since been resolved, with the freeze being lifted. However, this may raise concerns over the quality of the company’s projects. In addition, escrow account freezes may impact Country Garden’s liquidity. Hence, we view the ESG Impact on Credit as “Moderately Negative”. 


Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • On 22nd June, China released a draft rule that would prevent third-party e-commerce platforms from selling drugs directly to consumers online.
  • Alibaba Health’s share price is down more than 10% since the announcement of the draft rule, however, third-party e-commerce platforms accounts for about 10% of Ali Health’s revenues.
  • Pharmaceutical direct sales business has been generating lower GPM compared to JD Health’s direct biz, and the company’s margins have continued to deteriorate during the last 2-years.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the mobile growth platform provider, Digital Turbine.
  • Digital Turbine is now in an expansion mode as evident from its recent results as well as its acquisition-oriented strategy.
  • However, in recent quarters, the investors of Digital Turbine have turned against various technology-focused assets, and its stock price also lost much value.

Asia HY Trade Book – July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH) – Potential for Reversals Despite Short-Term Pressure on Performance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main logic of Micro-Tech’s performance growth is import substitution, but the Company is facing some challenges in the short term, such as centralized procurement, pandemic, inflation, etc.
  • Micro-Tech will face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022. Since the whole series of products would be covered by centralized procurement, the valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray.
  • However, there are possibilities for Micro-Tech to achieve a turnaround (with bottom-fishing opportunity) if it could make a breakthrough in internationalization and product innovation. We recommend investors follow Micro-Tech closely.

Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market

By Ming Lu

  • Online game sales decreased for the first time in 1H22.
  • The main problem is the unstable policy of the new game license.
  • Big companies like Tencent and NetEase are seeking overseas markets.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Digital Turbine is a major mobile growth platform provider across the globe and is operating in expansion mode as evident from its recent results as well as its acquisition-oriented strategy.
  • However, in recent quarters, the investors of Digital Turbine have turned against various technology-focused assets, and its stock price also lost much value.
  • Digital Turbine recently unveiled a single strategy and a unified corporate brand for its partners and clients.

Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK) Pre-IPO: Accumulated Loss and Cash Burn Cloud Growth Prospects

By Tina Banerjee

  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK), the second largest private oncology healthcare company in China, has submitted application proof for an IPO on the HK Stock Exchange in May 2022.  
  • The company has an accumulated loss of RMB1.7 billion during the last three years, with current net debt-to-capital ratio of 170.1%. Its finance cost account for 92.5% of total revenue.
  • Concord has a cash balance of just RMB136 million, which makes it hard to grab the growth opportunities in China’s capital-intensive oncology healthcare services segment.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Eastroc Beverage Group, PC Partner, Legend Biotech Corp, China Education Group, Plus Digital Technologies, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs, Jabil Circuit, Fidelity National Info Serv and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 26th July 2022
  • Chinese GDRs on the SIX Exchange – More Names, Smaller Discounts, Smaller Size, Less Liquidity
  • Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap
  • Legend Biotech Follow-On – A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction
  • China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining Growth Trajectory
  • Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – The Potential Disposal of Generic Drug Business and the Outlook
  • Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning – 26 July – Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX.
  • When Alibaba listed in NY, it was on ADRs. When it listed in HK, it was the shares underlying the ADRs but it was a quickie secondary listing.
  • It will now seek a dual primary listing as others have. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible and will slightly improve BABA’s HSI funding trade prospects in future. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 26th July 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flags those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Chinese GDRs on the SIX Exchange – More Names, Smaller Discounts, Smaller Size, Less Liquidity

By Travis Lundy

  • China started mulling an expansion of its Stock Connect relationships in late 2021 with plans to allow GDR issuance in Switzerland and eventually Germany.
  • New GDR issuance rules came into effect in February and companies started planning to issue GDRs in Switzerland in March.
  • The new SIX Listing Rules went into effect 25 July. Two companies priced GDRs on 22 July and two more yesterday. US$1.5bn so far. There are 6 more near-term.

Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • 1H22 was a story of two halves: 1Q22 still showed record profits but 2Q22 got progressively worse. 3Q22 started weak with inventory clearance and Nvidia new GPU launch awaited.
  • Even after paying a fantastic final dividend in June 2022, it is now trading below net cash on the balance sheet.  
  • We estimate net cash on the balance sheet is now 9 HKD vs 7 HKD share price.

Legend Biotech Follow-On – A Little Opportunistic. Last Deal Did Well, After a Large Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US), a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), is planning to raise up to US$250m in its follow-on offering.
  • The company last raised cash in Dec 2021 in a similar sized deal, which ended up doing very well after a sharp share price correction.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining Growth Trajectory

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK) has retreated 23% from recent high with no regulatory and company news. Given its secured earnings growth outlook, we see an opportunity. 
  • We believe drivers are higher enrollment and tuition, further capacity growth, good progress in overseas education and light capex. There are positive developments in these aspects recently. 
  • CEG may return unused share buyback funds to shareholders via dividend, suggesting a potential resumption of payout. At just 5.7x PER for FY23F, its growth prospect is undervalued.

Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Plus Digital Technologies (PDT CH) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Jefferies and Guotai Junan.
  • Plus Digital Technologies provides digitalised sales and marketing and SaaS+ services to its customers to enhance their offline sales and marketing efficiency and drive their offline retail sales. 
  • Its provision of services is supported by its Field Management Ecology System (FMES) platform, which contains a variety of digitalised products with different functionalities to meet customers’ various requirements.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – The Potential Disposal of Generic Drug Business and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The disposal of generic drug segment would bring one-time cash flow. Together with the cash on hand, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK) is undervalued based on its current market value. 
  • In the context of its innovative drug segment facing long-term losses, and the decreasing profit margins of medical beauty segment due to increasing competition, Sihuan’s prospects are no brighter.
  • Due to the concerns on outlook and its development mode, Sihuan’s upside potential could be lower than expected, and the share price could fluctuate largely. 

Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on diversified manufacturing services and solutions provider, Jabil Inc.
  • The company has maintained a strong diversification strategy which has helped it perform despite a difficult supply chain environment and widely reported shutdowns in China.
  • During the quarter, the company further collaborated with two companies, SolarEdge and Cardo Systems, to expand its supply chain.

Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the leading global technology solutions provider to the banking and finance industry – Fidelity National Information.
  • The company’s annual organic growth expectations were all exceeded with a 9% organic top-line growth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Gotion High-Tech Co Ltd, Gem Co Ltd A, Pop Mart International Group Limited, Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial, Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd-H, Onewo Space-Tech, Honghua Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications
  • Gotion High Tech GDR Listing – Recent GDRs Have Seen Narrowing Discounts
  • GEM Co., Ltd. GDR Listing – Better Discount than Last Two and Ming Yang Has Held Up
  • Pop Mart: Aggressive Overseas Expansion to Hurt Profitability
  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial Pre-IPO – Earnings Recovered but Nothing Really Stands Out
  • Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) – The Story May Have Changed
  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Lowest Growth, Will Recover in December Quarter, Buy
  • Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the Largest and Still Growing Fast
  • Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Tata Steel Thailand

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) currently has a Secondary Listing in Hong Kong and is looking to become dual primary listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
  • The main change will be inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect program where mainland investors will be able to buy the stock.
  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) is capped at 8% in the HSCEI INDEX and is close to 8% of the HSI INDEX, there will be negligible impact on the dividend futures.

Gotion High Tech GDR Listing – Recent GDRs Have Seen Narrowing Discounts

By Clarence Chu

  • Gotion High-Tech Co Ltd (002074 CH) (GHT) is looking to raise US$1bn from its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC and Haitong International.
  • The shares offered in GHT’s GDR offering ranges between 16.65m – 33.29m GDRs (83.24m – 166.47m A-shares), ranging the deal size between US$499m-US$1bn. 
  • At the top end, in terms of number of GDRs offered, the deal would represent 4.7 days of ADV on the A-share market and 9.6% of current mcap.

GEM Co., Ltd. GDR Listing – Better Discount than Last Two and Ming Yang Has Held Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Gem Co Ltd A (002340 CH) is looking to raise around US$245m in its Swiss GDR listing.
  • Proceeds will be used mainly for overseas expansion, such as the development of the Indonesian Nickel Resource Base and development of its production base and recycling center in Europe.
  • In terms of discount, relative to the most recent two deals, Keda Industrial and Ningbo Shanshan, GEM’s GDRs are offered at a more enticing 11.7-14.2% discount to its A-shares,

Pop Mart: Aggressive Overseas Expansion to Hurt Profitability

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Pop Mart’s share price has lost more than 50% YTD as resurgence of Covid in China has severely impacted the company’s operations including closure of physical stores and robo shops.
  • The company also issued a profit warning last week for 1H2022 that was severely impacted by the spread of Covid-19 as well as business expansion related costs.
  • We expect the company’s aggressive overseas expansion strategy to continue to impact the company’s profitability and there is further downside.

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial Pre-IPO – Earnings Recovered but Nothing Really Stands Out

By Ethan Aw

  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (1317437D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (SPI) is a fruit retail operator in China. According to Frost & Sullivan, it ranked first among all fruit specialty retail operators in China in 2021.
  • However, the firm operates in a highly fragmented industry with low market share of 1.0%, even as the largest player. 

Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) – The Story May Have Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.
  • One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy – Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  
  • Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.

Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Lowest Growth, Will Recover in December Quarter, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • We believe Alibaba’s revenue growth rate will reach historical low in 1Q23, but it will recover two quarters later.
  • Alibaba’s stock price fell from HK$300 in October 2020 to HK$100 today.
  • We believe Alibaba has at least an upside of 43%.

Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the Largest and Still Growing Fast

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo Space-Tech (OST) aims to raise around US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK).
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited, BYD, China Longyuan Power, Alibaba Group, China Resources Medical, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!
  • BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support
  • China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive
  • China Internet Weekly (25Jul2022): Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, IQiyi, Miss Fresh
  • China Resources Medical – Hard to Earn High Profits Due to Poor Business Model and Policy Risk
  • Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, CIFI Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Reliance Industries

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!

By Brian Freitas


BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BYD (1211 HK) is a short on upticks near the gap and physical resistance for a decline to pressure intermediate support at 240 (break expected).
  • Sell volumes spiked on the jolt down with sellers waiting overhead on a secondary bounce attempt.
  • RSI shows a compelling bearish set up after topping at the 70+ sell zone with bear divergence that supports a downside surprise.

China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Share price of China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has been under pressure over the last two weeks due to concern on future offshore wind power project return.
  • We believe the low tariff of Rmb0.19/kWh won by a Huaneng Power Group consortium in Fujian is more an exceptional case and should not be taken as a new normal.
  • China Longyuan’s growth has been well secured by its project pipeline as well as 21GW potential injection from parent. This round of de-rating is just too excessive. 

China Internet Weekly (25Jul2022): Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, IQiyi, Miss Fresh

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s Freshippo expands to two inland cities, which reflects its success in coastal areas.
  • Online game’s revenue and players decreased for the first time in 14 years.
  • NetEase set up the second game studios in the United States.

China Resources Medical – Hard to Earn High Profits Due to Poor Business Model and Policy Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China Resources Medical has more advantages than ordinary private medical institutions in terms of its State-owned Key Enterprises background, delicacy management, cost reduction and efficiency increase, resources/talents, industrial chain layout.
  • However, due to the policy environment, China Resources Medical just represents “a small area of relatively little risk in a large area that is clearly risky”. 
  • General hospitals have poor business model and profitability. Despite its strength, we are conservative about the outlook of China Resources Medical, which is difficult to achieve a higher valuation.

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, CIFI Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Reliance Industries

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tianqi Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador

By Brian Freitas

  • We have gone through days 1-5 of the review period for the MSCI September rebalance. There are multiple review cutoffs in the coming week.
  • The announcement of the changes to the LQ45/IDX30/IDX80 indices should be made early in the coming week and implemented at the close on 29 July.
  • China had the largest ETF inflows over the last week, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.

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Daily Brief China: 51 Job Inc Adr, Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture, Yunnan Chuangxin New Material, BYD, Agile Property Holdings, Factset Research Systems Inc, Kwg Property Holding, Carmax Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings
  • Zhuangyuan Pasture (1533 HK): Offer Now Unconditional
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 22 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 22 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • FactSet Research Systems Inc.: Defensive Business Model & Key Drivers, Major Competitive Threats & Other Risks, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Jul 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Jul 2022
  • CarMax Inc: Digital Platform Upside, Marketing & New Sponsorships, Other Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

51job’s Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 1 March, 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, down 22.8% from the initial terms.
  • This merger was approved at an EGM on the 27 April and became effective on the 6 May.
  • Court proceedings have commenced for dissenters, accounting for a staggering 30.9% of shares out. It’s not just “fair value” under the microscope; but the legality of the downward revision.

Zhuangyuan Pasture (1533 HK): Offer Now Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 25 April, PRC dairy farmer Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture (1533 HK) announced a Conditional Cash Offer for all its H-shares at $10.89/share. 
  • This two-step voluntary cash offer incorporated a Scheme-like vote and a 90% tendering condition. 
  • Shareholders voted for the transaction on the 29 June. The tendering condition has now been satisfied. The last day of trading is on the 1 August.  

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Chinese Property Weekly – 22 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 22 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


FactSet Research Systems Inc.: Defensive Business Model & Key Drivers, Major Competitive Threats & Other Risks, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • FactSet has a fundamentally solid business model and its business has not been significantly affected despite the bearish trends in the S&P500.
  • Asia Pacific continued to be a growth-driving geography with ASV growth at 14.3%, driven by demand from asset managers and vested owners.
  • With greater expansion with asset owners and asset managers, respectively, both CTS and analytics contributed to growth.

Weekly Wrap – 22 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. China South City
  3. Lenovo
  4. Agile Property Holdings
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 22 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. China South City
  3. Lenovo
  4. Agile Property Holdings
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


CarMax Inc: Digital Platform Upside, Marketing & New Sponsorships, Other Key Drivers, inancial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • CarMax had a decent start to the 2023 fiscal and generated total sales of $9.3 billion in the first quarter, up 21% from the previous year’s period.
  • Total unit sales in their retail division fell by 11% in the first quarter, and used unit comps dropped by 12.7% from the same period in 2017.
  • The same broad macroeconomic factors that contributed to a market-wide decline in used car sales during the quarter drove CarMax’s performance.

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Daily Brief China: Xtep International, China Mineral Resources Group, China Jinmao Holdings, DiDi Global, Amazon.com Inc, Alteryx Inc, Best Wellness Innovation Group, Waste Management, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Xtep International Placement – Parent Trimming at ATHs, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • China Debuts $3 Billion State Iron Ore Giant
  • China Jinmao – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Are Didi’s Regulatory Troubles Finally Over with a US$1.2bn Fine?
  • Alphyn Capital Management Letter To Investors Q2 2022
  • Alteryx, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Enterprise Analytics, Public Sector Offerings & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)
  • Pre-IPO Best Wellness Innovation Group – Here Are the Concerns
  • Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)
  • Republic Services, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy, Venture With Archaea Energy & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China South City, Future Retail Ltd, KWG Living Group

Xtep International Placement – Parent Trimming at ATHs, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Group Success Investments is looking to raise up to US$133m by trimming its holdings in Xtep International (1368 HK).
  • We can’t say that the deal is expected and short interest on the stock hasn’t been creeping up as well. 
  • While the deal won’t be a large one, representing just 5.7 days of three month ADV, the firm’s last deal hasn’t done well.

China Debuts $3 Billion State Iron Ore Giant

By Caixin Global

  • China’s central government formally launched a state-owned iron ore giant to consolidate China’s massive mining investments and coordinate global purchases of steelmaking materials for the world’s largest steel producing nation
  • With registered capital of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion), China Mineral Resources Group was established Tuesday in the Xiongan New Area
  • Creation of the enterprise is seen as part of China’s long-pursued goal of enhancing its position in the global iron ore trade

China Jinmao – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view China Jinmao as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is one of Sinochem’s most profitable subsidiaries, and enjoys sound relationships with provincial governments. Overall, we believe Jinmao’s credit profile is supported by its SOE status. A Change of Control will be triggered under the USD notes indenture if Sinochem ceases to be Jinmao’s largest/controlling shareholder. In addition, the indenture for Sinochem’s offshore notes contain cross acceleration in the event of default by any significant subsidiary.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Jinmao is “Negative”, on account of the industry’s prolonged sales weakness and the company’s uncertain access to offshore capital markets. T

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Are Didi’s Regulatory Troubles Finally Over with a US$1.2bn Fine?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • The CAC of China said on Thursday that it has fined the country’s ride-hailing giant DiDi Global (DIDI US)  with RMB8.03bn (US$1.2bn) for violating data protection rules since 2015.
  • According to their findings, Didi had been illegally collecting its users’ information which has been used in a manner which had endangered national security.
  • In addition to the above fine on the company, CAC also has imposed two fines of RMb1m each on Didi’s Chief Executive Cheng Wei and President Jean Liu.

Alphyn Capital Management Letter To Investors Q2 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • Alphyn Capital Management LLC (“ACML”) is a registered investment advisor in New York. We help clients invest in high quality public companies to both preserve and grow their wealth over the long-term.
  • The Master Account, in which I am personally invested alongside SMA clients, returned -14.7% net in Q2 2022, as reported by our fund administrator.
  • With the threat of increasing rates, investors have renewed their focus on profits.
  • I try not to take a position on a discrete event, such as interest rates or quarterly earnings, as the odds of getting these right are too low, and the costs of getting these wrong are too high.

Alteryx, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Enterprise Analytics, Public Sector Offerings & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on process automation player, Alteryx.
  • The company had a great start to 2022 and saw increasing traction with large enterprise customers.
  • The company’s brand-new, integrated Alteryx Analytics Cloud platform now offers access to its entire cloud portfolio.

Pre-IPO Best Wellness Innovation Group – Here Are the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The growth in revenue and profit was mainly driven by the face mask business, but this business has ceased, which raises the concerns on future growth momentum of Best Wellness.
  • Best Wellness’s weak performance of its own-brand business would prevent it from standing out in the fierce market competition in the long term. 
  • Together with over-reliance on limited customers and the complex international relations, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.

Waste Management, Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Waste Management Inc is the market leader in the waste management business with a dominant share in the U.S. market.
  • The company’s strong performance in the initial months of the year has set the tone for the remainder of 2022.
  • Among major developments, the seventeenth R&D plant in their network and the fifth created by Waste Management will be coming online shortly in Oklahoma.

Republic Services, Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy, Venture With Archaea Energy & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on environmental services player, Republic Services.
  • The company has had a decent start to 2022 delivering EBITDA and revenue growth and showed an increase in the generated adjusted earnings.
  • Also, Republic Services continues to realize the advantages of its investments in technology.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China South City, Future Retail Ltd, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tian Tu Capital, Beneunder, Innovent Biologics Inc, Lenovo and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Beneunder Pre-IPO – The Positives – Basking in the Sun
  • Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) – Innovent Is Not Optional but Necessary in Portfolio
  • Lenovo – Event Flash – Dual-Tranche Bond Offering And Tender Offer – Lucror Analytics
  • Beneunder Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Doubts Remain, Including Related Party Dealings
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Lenovo

Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JP Morgan and Huatai International.
  • Tian Tu Capital is a private equity investor that invests in Chinese consumer brands/companies, managing capital for institutional investors and high-net worth individuals.  
  • Among the 205 portfolio companies it had invested in up to FY21 (Dec 31, 2021), 23 of them had reached a valuation of US$1bn at that date. 

Beneunder Pre-IPO – The Positives – Basking in the Sun

By Sumeet Singh

  • Beneunder Limited (BL) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to CIC, it was the largest sunprotection apparel brand in China in terms of both total retail sales value and online retail sales value with 5.0% and 12.9% marketshare. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) – Innovent Is Not Optional but Necessary in Portfolio

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Innovent is expected to transform from a biotech to a biopharma. From the present point of view, the Company is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety.  
  • With high R&D efficiency, strong sales capability, top talent teams, and mindset keeping pace with the times, investors could consider to replace Hengrui with Innovent in the portfolio.  
  • Innovent’s valuation anchor is HK$40 billion, below which it’s undervalued. Its market value could reach about RMB80 billion to RMB120 billion, based on sales of RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion. 

Lenovo – Event Flash – Dual-Tranche Bond Offering And Tender Offer – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lenovo has launched a roadshow to market dual-tranche 144A/RegS bond offerings of 5.5Y and 10Y. The 10Y notes will be the company’s first green bonds, while the 5.5Y bonds will be conventional notes. Proceeds from the green bonds will be used to finance or refinance eligible projects, including green buildings and renewable energy initiatives. 

Lenovo also launched a concurrent tender offer for the USD 4.75 23 notes, of which USD 687 mn is outstanding. The tender offer price is USD 1,005 per USD 1,000 principal. The consideration will include accrued interest. The tender cap will be determined and announced on or around July 22nd, after the company has priced the notes offerings.

Initial price guidance was announced earlier today, as follows: 5.5Y: CT5 + 290 bps, and 10Y: CT10 + 370 bps. We find this fair, in view of the existing LENOVO curve and taking into account global peers HPQ and DELL.


Beneunder Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Doubts Remain, Including Related Party Dealings

By Sumeet Singh

  • Beneunder Limited (BL) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to CIC, it was the largest sunprotection apparel brand in China in terms of both total retail sales value and online retail sales value with 5.0% and 12.9% marketshare. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Lenovo

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (A), ACM Research Shanghai Inc, Beijing UBOX Online Technology, Fosun Tourism, Yanlord Land, China South City and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Swire Acquires Coke’s Ops in Vietnam & Cambodia
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Adds Outperforming the Deletes
  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – Trimming Losses, but yet to Factor in 2022 Lockdowns
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances
  • Yanlord Land – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources

StubWorld: Swire Acquires Coke’s Ops in Vietnam & Cambodia

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) expands its beverages ops, its best-performing unlisted segment, via the acquisition of Coke bottling operations in Vietnam and Cambodia. 
  • Preceding my comments on Swire – and Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Adds Outperforming the Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • Over 96% of the way through the review period, we see 1 change using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using the shorter minimum listing history since the potential adds have much larger market caps than the potential deletes.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month and there could be more once the current consolidation is complete.

Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – Trimming Losses, but yet to Factor in 2022 Lockdowns

By Clarence Chu

  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology (1741985D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology (UBOX) is an unmanned retail operator (vending machine) in China. 
  • As per F&S, it was the largest unmanned retail operator in China, with the largest retail machine network in the country. 

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) expects a sharp 87.5-92.5% reduction in its losses in 1H22, driven primarily by significant revival in its Club Med business, though China is weak.
  • Outlook for 2H22 looks very encouraging as booking figures indicate good YoY volume growth and double-digit rate improvement in EMEA and Americas. 
  • China also witnessed solid rebound in Jul and Aug after removal of lockdowns in 2Q22. New Club Med Joyview resorts including Changbaishan and Qiandaohu are added contributors. 

Yanlord Land – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view Yanlord Land as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a strong brand name, having established its reputation as a high-end Chinese property developer over the last 20 years. While Yanlord’s scale is small, its projects are of good quality and distributed across key Tier 1/2 cities in the Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions. Yanlord enjoys higher gross margins compared to peers, due to its focus on premium products in high-tier cities. This helps the company maintain stronger interest coverage compared to peers, which provides a buffer for rising land prices and ASP declines. These positives are slightly offset by Yanlord’s high reliance on JV structures (with low attrition rates).

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Yanlord is “Negative”, due to a prolonged sales weakness and subdued financing environment across the Chinese Property industry. That said, the company has a good-quality asset base and sizeable investment property portfolio which may allow it to obtain new financing. Yanlord also has a clean debt structure compared to peers.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Morning Views Asia: China South City, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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