Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 20 of 222 | Smartkarma

• While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. 
• SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
• FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.

• In this insight, we discuss the emergence of the North Korea reconciliation related stocks that are starting to outperform. We have seen this playbook before.
• With the new President Lee Jae-Myung, there is likely to be an outperformance of some of these stocks once again.
• Among the 6 stocks listed above, we believe Hyundai Elevator is one of best stocks to capitalize on the increased reconciliation with North Korea.

• Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
• Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
• What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

• TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
• Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
• We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally

• In today’s edition: • ABN Amro | restructuring within Corporate Banking • BE Semiconductor Industries | increases long-term financial targets • Heineken | intends to invest USD 2.75bn in Mexico until 2028 • KPN | VodafoneZiggo secures access to part of Delta Fiber’s network • KPN | CEO denounces ‘populistic discussion’ on high broadband tariffs • InPost | court dismisses motion for injunction against Yodel • DHL | CMA to start DHL/EVRi merger inquiry

Team Internet’s 10-year deal to run the .co top-level domain (TLD) enhances the growth prospects for Domains, Identity and Software (DIS), the group’s highest-quality division in terms of revenue diversity and visibility. Growth prospects may strengthen with ICANN’s planned new Generic Top-Level Domains (gTLD) Program, scheduled for 2026. This is welcome news at a time when visibility for Search is low. Our estimates are unchanged, but we see upside potential to our 55p/share sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for DIS as prospects strengthen, and believe that the current valuation factors in modest prospects for DIS and Comparison and no value for Search.

• Cross-Holding Overhang Easing:Denso Corp (6902 JP) accelerates exit from Toyota Industries stake via tender offer, unlocking capital and aligning with capital efficiency and governance reforms.
• Profitability Set to Improve: FY2026 profit outlook strong, driven by reduced quality-related costs, better operating leverage, and ongoing cost controls post fuel pump recall.
• Valuation Comfort with Growth Drivers: Stock trades below historical average P/E; SDV, electrification, and semiconductor focus positions Denso well for re-rating amid sector tailwinds.

• Apimeds US is a clinical-stage biopharma company that is developing an intradermal bee venom-based toxin, Apitox, for pain associated with inflammatory conditions, including knee OA and multiple sclerosis (MS), for the US market.
• Apitox is licensed from Apimeds, Inc. in South Korea (Apimeds Korea), where the therapy has Korean approval as Apitoxin for treatment of OA.
• Honeybee venom has anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties.

• Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) and Knight Therapeutics (GUD CN) entered into exclusive license and supply agreements to commercialize Myfembree, Orgovyx, and vibegron in Canada.
• Sumitomo Pharma and Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB DC) have entered into a co-promotion agreement in Japan for Ozempic subcutaneous injection.
• Streamlining efforts and scouting for new revenue streams augurs well. Sumitomo stock remains in contention, up 27% in last 5 days.

Molten Ventures confirmed the key highlights from its FY25 trading statement published in April, including a positive uptick in portfolio valuations and, in turn, a 4% NAV per share total return in H225 (1.4% in FY25 to end-March 2025), strong cash realisations of c £135m in FY25 (ahead of the original guidance of £100m) and a robust cash balance of £89m at end-March 2025. Molten has collected a further £30m in proceeds so far in FY26 from the exits of Lyst and Freetrade. The company earmarked £30m of its FY25 proceeds for share buybacks amid a continued wide discount to NAV (c 53% at present), of which £24m has been executed to date.

• In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
• We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. 
• These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

• Department stores had a terrific year in FY2024, especially some of the more iconic stores like Isetan Shinjuku and Hankyu Umeda. 
• Declining custom from tourists is beginning to be a worry but the emphasis on capturing data on core local customers has, and will, pay big dividends for the best stores.
• The rest of the sector however, will continue to contract but the polarisation will help highlight the luxury positioning of the best stores.

• Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. 
• Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been mentioning : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto & industrial) remains weak. 
• 2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. 

• Tabio is the biggest retailer of hosiery in Japan but has suffered a decade of stagnant growth. 
• It now has plans to grow e-commerce, men’s sports lines through licenses such as with FC Barcelona.
• It will also speed up overseas expansion, especially in China.

• We are turning bearish on Hang Lung Properties.   Given China’s economic slowdown, we think luxury spending in China will take longer than expected
• In addition, the property slowdown and housing prices decline will lead to a negative wealth effect, which will further impact luxury consumption
• If RMB is to strengthen, more Chinese will travel to spend overseas.  HLP P/B valuation is almost historical low, but can stay cheap as a “value trap”

• Nippo produced record earnings in FY24, with OP of ¥1,970mil (+2.7% YoY) on sales of ¥44,890mil (+7.1% YoY).
• Thanks primarily to solid growth in order for print circuit boards [PCBs] used in generative AI servers and wafer polishing jigs manufactured in Nippo’s Okinawa factory, sales landed above the firm’s guidance of ¥42,000mil.
• FY25 is the final year of Nippo’s medium-term plan [MTP] which calls for an OP target of ¥2,000mil.

• Strong fundamentals priced in: Sinfonia’s sharp share price rally reflects robust FY3/25 results, but modest FY3/26 guidance limits near-term upside potential.
• Conservative outlook despite tailwinds: Management’s cautious projections for semiconductor and defense segments appear understated given ongoing structural growth in both industries.
• Valuation fair at current levels: Updated DCF suggests shares are reasonably valued; premium to peers justified by dual exposure to secular growth in aerospace and semiconductors.

• We are suspending our rating and price target for Vera Bradley and lowering our projections after a below expectations 1Q, and the announced departure of CEO Jacqueline Ardrey and Chief Financial Officer Michael Schwindle.
• Further, the company has already hired Martin Layding (x-Divisional CFO for the Coach brand) as CFO, with Board member Ian Bickley (Coach management) entering into a new role as Vera Bradley Executive Chairman until the CEO transition is completed.
• Given the shifts, the company suspended any formal financial guidance.

• There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
• In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
• Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

• Product authentication and legitimacy are paramount for The RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL), which sells used luxury items.
• But our research indicates that REAL’s authentication lets through many counterfeits, and that has enraged both buyers and sellers, undermining the sense of trust.
• REAL has applied AI to the authentication problem to speed things up, but we see no evidence of effectiveness.

• We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)‘s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
• TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.
• Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY’s, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.

• Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
• AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
• 4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.

• In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of Hanmi Science (008930 KS), Amorepacific Holdings (002790 KS), Youngone Holdings (009970 KS), OCI Holdings (010060 KS), and Orion Holdings (001800 KS).
• These five smaller holding companies have also outperformed the market this year (up 43% on average versus KOSPI which is up 20% in the same period).
• These holdcos’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies. 

• Almonty Industries has reported first quarter 2025 financial results in line with expectations and reaffirmed its position as one of the most strategically important critical mineral suppliers in the Western Hemisphere.
• The company continues to deliver on its operational roadmap, capital deployment, and geopolitical positioning at a time when global interest in reliable non-Chinese tungsten supply is intensifying.
• Following a significant rally in tungsten prices since February and the continued de-risking of its Sangdong Mine in South Korea, we have updated our forecasts and valuation model.

• In this insight, we discuss the preferred shares of five major holding companies and how the share price gap relative to their common counterparts could decrease. 
• There is a relatively easy way to improve shareholder value of these holding companies which is to cancel the entire preferred shares that trade at discount to their common counterparts.
• The common shares of these five companies have experienced an average share price appreciation of 33.2% YTD versus 28.7% appreciation for their preferred shares counterparts.

• TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? 
• UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. 
• This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).

• Pinduoduo’s surprise Q125 OP & NP declines happened before US tariff, de minimis changes
• Recent data from Bain & Co. suggests extremely difficult US conditions for Temu, SHEIN
• If representative, the April-May US data suggest deep, lasting US challenges for the platforms

• Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.
• Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2 years in response to rising mortgage rates.
• While we acknowledge the short to medium term impact of rising rates, we see Taylor Wimpey’s long-term profitability as strong, and worth twice their current valuation.

GB Group’s CEO Dev Dhiman’s first full year has seen initiatives addressing the company’s foundations rather than its short-term growth. This is a necessary step if management are to optimise longer-term shareholder value. Accordingly, any share price disappointment regarding H225 and H126 growth rates needs to be set against the group’s increasing optionality around capital allocation and the reassurance of an unchanged FY26 financial outlook.

• FET’s Beat-the-Market strategy is geared to position the company to gain share with customers during cyclical troughs that can support accelerated growth as the cycle turns higher.
• The strategy is underpinned by the company’s focus on developing specialized technological solutions that allow its customers to develop their assets cost-efficiently and safely.
• Increased drilling and completion intensity as operators push the limits of lateral lengths and stimulation intensity drives demand for the consumable products that account for ~80% of FET’s revenue.

• Holding companies have been the best performing asset class in the Korean stock market in the past month.
• In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest “pure” holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin KAL, and HD Hyundai.
• The NAVs of these five holdcos are about 18% higher than their current prices on average. 

• We provide updated NAV valuations of Doosan Corp (000150 KS), Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS), CJ Corp (001040 KS), GS Holdings (078930 KS), and LOTTE Corporation (004990 KS).
• These holding companies’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies that could unlock greater value. 
• The share prices of Hanwha Corp, Doosan Corp, CJ Corp, GS Holdings, and Lotte Corp are up on average 97% YTD. 

• AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
• AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
• Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?

• COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk.  Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader
• It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR.  This is very significant 
• Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited.  We think it is the perfect beta play for China

• We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
• May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments – India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
• This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.

• Lululemon Athletica Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, posting revenue growth that reached the high end of its guidance range with a notable improvement in the United States, where revenues grew by 2%.
• The overall revenue increased by 7% (or 8% in constant currency) reaching $2.4 billion, driven by strong performance across various regions, despite a seemingly cautious consumer sentiment in the U.S. The brand witnessed robust in-market performance with revenues in Canada increasing by 9% and a significant 22% increase in Mainland China.
• The company also saw 17% revenue growth in the rest of the world.

• Lulu is again back to LSD growth in the US; what makes it more disappointing is they actually had a somewhat easier comparison since 1Q’24 growth was just 2%.
• Canada, despite a low double digit growth in 1Q’24, again had higher growth than the US this quarter.
• China and Rest of the World (RoW) maintained healthy growth rates but growth has materially decelerated. 

• PVH Corp.’s first-quarter 2025 performance reflects a balance of achievements and challenges in a complex macroeconomic environment.
• On the positive side, PVH delivered revenue growth that surpassed company guidance, attributable to the effective execution of its PVH+ Plan.
• The revenue increased by 2%, exceeding expectations due to stronger-than-projected wholesale performance, early shipments, and the relaunch of Calvin Klein women’s sportswear and jeans in North America.

• MongoDB, Inc., a leading document-oriented database platform provider, has reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
• This quarter, MongoDB announced revenues of $549 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase that surpassed expectations.
• The revenue growth was significantly driven by Atlas, its cloud-based database service, which saw a 26% rise and accounted for 72% of the total revenue.

• How many times can Apple management say “delightful” when they have nothing to say? WWDC25 highlighted a bunch of small software tweaks, mostly “new designs” and nothing on AI. 
• The air pocket continues: very low growth in hardware categories, potentially large negative consequence of the Epic lawsuit, no AI roadmap.   
• Consensus expects revenue growth for FY26 and that’s very questionable. The stock trades at 28x FY25 EPS, 26x FY26 with the only driver being share buybacks. Avoid!

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

• TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
• ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short

• Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
• Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
• We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment. 
• The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
• 2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance

• Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug. 
• The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
• Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry’s tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit. 

• BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
• With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
• At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.

• Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
• The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
• With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.

• Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
• Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
• AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.

• I recently visited Daiso near Seoul Station. Daiso is one of the few off-line stores that has been crushing the competition in Korea in the past several years.
• Amid continued weak economy in Korea in the past several years, Daiso has thrived through its detailed execution of focus on low priced products with highest value to consumers.
• Able C&C (078520 KS) is a prime example a company capitalizing on the strong demand for cosmetic products at Daiso. 

• Intel Corp (INTC US) CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”
• Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.
• In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives

• Snowflake has taken a bold strategic leap in its battle for AI supremacy by acquiring Crunchy Data, a leading PostgreSQL-based database company, for approximately $250 million.
• Coming shortly after Databricks’ $1 billion acquisition of Neon, this move signals an intensifying war for enterprise customers who want to build AI agents using their own data.
• Crunchy Data’s roughly 100 employees are set to join Snowflake as the company integrates Crunchy into a new product offering called Snowflake Postgres.

• Procter & Gamble, the global powerhouse behind brands like Tide, Pampers, and Gillette, has announced one of its most significant organizational shake-ups in recent years.
• The company plans to cut 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs globally—roughly 15% of its non-factory workforce—over the next two years.
• This move is part of a broader noncore restructuring program estimated to cost between $1 billion and $1.6 billion before tax, with about 25% of that in noncash charges.

• Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported a 11% YoY increase in net profit to INR5B on an 8% YoY growth in revenue to INR28B in Q4FY25. Domestic business drove overall performance.
• Revenue from domestic market increased 12% YoY to INR15.5B, led by outperformance in focus therapies, aided by strong new launch performance. Torrent continued to outperform IPM.
• The company is expanding margins by 75–100bps historically. With improving traction in U.S., double-digit growth in Brazil, and continued strong performance in India, the trend is expected to continue.

• Once considered vulnerable to competitive pressures and margin erosion, Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) has staged a remarkable comeback that has turned heads on Wall Street.
• After seeing its stock plunge nearly 50% earlier this year due to fears around tariffs and intensified white-box competition, Arista has bounced back with vengeance.
• Now trading near $95, the stock has rallied on the back of a robust Q1 2025 print, confident full-year guidance, and its growing role in powering AI infrastructure for tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle.

• Viking recently reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a solid financial and operational performance.
• The company experienced a 7.1% increase in net yields alongside a 14.9% capacity boost compared to the previous year.
• Total revenue reached nearly $900 million, approximately three times higher than in 2019, reflecting strong demand for Viking’s offerings and the disciplined implementation of its growth strategy.

• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) has made headlines with its recent $11.1 billion collaboration deal with German biotech BioNTech, a strategic move that underscores the company’s aggressive pivot toward growth in oncology.
• The centerpiece of this deal is BNT327, a PD-L1/VEGF-A bispecific antibody, which BMS sees as a next-generation immuno-oncology asset capable of reshaping the cancer treatment landscape.
• With an upfront payment of $1.5 billion and $2 billion guaranteed through 2028, the agreement also includes a potential $7.6 billion in milestone payments.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
• Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
• Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

• The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.
• The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.
• However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.

• Metaplanet aims to raise ¥745B via a 555M share issuance to expand its Bitcoin holdings, targeting 100,000 BTC by end-2026.
• The raise implies significant dilution, but rising share prices and strong NISA retail demand could make the capital goal achievable within 12–18 months.
• Early investors benefit structurally from raises above NAV, as Metaplanet evolves into a long-term institutional vehicle for Bitcoin exposure and monetary debasement hedging.

• The Gap Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing a mix of positive outcomes and ongoing challenges across its portfolio of brands.
• Highlights of the quarter include improvements in certain financial metrics and continued execution of its strategic initiatives, although the company is facing headwinds primarily related to tariffs which could impact its financial outlook.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
• Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
• While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

• Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
• This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
• With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

• 2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
• Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
• Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.

• CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a leader in cybersecurity, delivered a robust performance in its fiscal first quarter of 2026, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
• The company’s headline achievement was its double-digit million-dollar addition to net new ARR, significantly surpassing expectations and reaching an ending ARR of $4.4 billion.
• This milestone reinforces its stature as a dominant player in pure-play cybersecurity software at scale.

• e.l.f. Beauty recently reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2025, characterized by continued momentum and strategic expansion initiatives.
• The company exhibited a robust growth trajectory, marking its 25th consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
• For fiscal 2025, net sales increased by 28%, while adjusted EBITDA went up by 26%.

• Guidewire Software, Inc.’s latest financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a mix of robust performance and strategic progress.
• The company reported a record-breaking quarter in terms of sales activities, showcasing strong demand for its cloud offerings, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reaching $960 million.
• Notably, Guidewire expects to surpass the $1 billion ARR milestone by the end of the fiscal year, indicating significant traction and growth in their subscription model.

• There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
• Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
• If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.

• Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
• Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
• Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance

• Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
• Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
• Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.

• Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four – Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
• Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
• We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.

• In a strategic move underscoring its ambitions in AI infrastructure and next-gen interconnects, AMD recently acquired Silicon Valley-based Enosemi, a startup specializing in photonic integrated circuits.
• The acquisition is part of AMD’s broader effort to catch up with competitors like Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom in the co-packaged optics (CPO) space, a technology increasingly viewed as essential for building high-bandwidth, energy-efficient AI systems.
• Enosemi, founded in 2023 by semiconductor engineers Ari Novack and Matthew Streshinsky, had previously collaborated with AMD on photonics development and brings with it a small but elite team of PhD-level engineers.

• Zscaler, a major force in cloud-based cybersecurity, has officially signed a definitive agreement to acquire Red Canary, a recognized leader in Managed Detection and Response (MDR), in a strategic push to redefine security operations through AI and data integration.
• The acquisition, expected to close in August 2025, marks Zscaler’s second major deal in the past 18 months after acquiring Avalor, a security data fabric provider.
• Red Canary brings more than $140 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a seasoned MDR go-to-market team, and agentic AI workflows already deployed in production.

• Eli Lilly and Company has made a decisive move to expand its footprint in neuroscience and pain management by announcing its acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing non-opioid pain treatments.
• The deal, valued at up to $1 billion including milestones, centers around STC-004, a Phase 2-ready NaV1.8 inhibitor that could become a next generation oral pain medication.
• The acquisition underscores Lilly’s broader ambition to lead in addiction-free, chronic pain solutions at a time when regulatory and societal pressures around opioid misuse continue to rise.

• In a strategic move that signals a shift toward automated, prevention-first cybersecurity, Check Point Software Technologies has announced its acquisition of Veriti Cybersecurity, a pioneering Israeli startup specializing in preemptive threat exposure management.
• The transaction, valued at over $100 million, is expected to close by the end of Q2 2025 and marks the first major acquisition under new CEO Nadav Zafrir.
• The deal comes at a time when Check Point is pushing hard on its hybrid mesh architecture vision and doubling down on its Infinity Platform to unify security across endpoints, cloud, and networks.

• Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
• India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
• Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

• Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
• The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
• Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

• Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
• Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
• The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%

• EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
• $4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
• Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.

• Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
• The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
• Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger. 

• The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
• SPRL reported  Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
• SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

• NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
• Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
• NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

• Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
• This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
• Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

• Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
• The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
• The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

• Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
• The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
• The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

• Over the past six months, AViC’s share price has undergone a major re-rate.
• Its closing price on May 16, 2025, the day after Q2 FY2025/9 results announcement, stood at JPY 1,825, up 67.6% from the closing price of JPY 1,089 on November 14, 2024, when it announced FY2024/9 results.
• Based on the projected EPS of JPY 73.59 for FY2025/9, the Company’s share looks to be trading at a premium with a forward P/E ratio of 24.8x. 

• Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
• Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
• Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.

• Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s 77.8%-held DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has sold its entire 22.2% stake in Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) for ~US$283mn to “support its capital allocation strategy“.
• Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY.
• Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.
• The stock has an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$66 for the next twelve months.

• A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. 
• It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip’s performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. 
• TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It’s already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.

• IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. 
• The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.
• I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.

• Xiaomi reported C1Q25 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net profit 2.0%, 41% and 57% vs. our estimate. 
• While there are a few product positives supporting outperformance, the main driver is still trade-in subsidy (TIS), which will start to end in C3Q25;
• We continue to view Xiaomi as having an enviable market position as a “Huawei without the sanctions”, its valuation has also become very rich.

• We expect the Trump tariffs announced on Taiwan (base for suppliers/production of Plover Bay) to slightly affect growth rates for H1 FY25 and estimate a 15%/13% YoY revenue/profit growth number. 
• A 32% tariff was imposed on Taiwan suppliers; however, electronic items, including routers, were subsequently excluded. Nonetheless, overall business sentiment had already been negatively impacted before these adjustments.
• Trading at 19.4x FY25e earnings (assuming a reversion to 15% growth), the stock is somewhat fairly valued, although we love this name’s execution and long-term track record. 

• VEON last week announced it has secured regulatory approvals for its tower asset partnership with Engro Corp in Pakistan, unlocking US$563 million in value. 
• Cash portion of funds will be paid in tranches and received in Pakistan, with flexibility to upstream capital or reinvest locally.
• Transaction supports VEON’s ongoing transformation at the Group level and digital growth strategy in Pakistan while offering a roadmap for similar value creation in Ukraine.

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported FY25 revenues of N Z$208m, posting a strong recovery in H2, with dissipating headwinds and traditional H2 seasonality offsetting the softer H1 performance. H225 revenues (N Z$121.3m) grew 40% over H125 and 9% y-o-y, driven by sustained domestic market momentum and international market recovery. The FY25 operating margin of 8.5% (12.4% in FY24) was affected by lower licensing income and investments in marketing, R&D and international expansion, but these investments should deliver upside opportunities in the longer term. The balance sheet remains strong (net debt reduced to N Z$14.5m, 0.7x EBITDA), supporting the announcement of a 1.8c per share dividend (c 17% payout ratio). Management aims to achieve N Z$300m in revenues by end-FY27 and has guided for operating profit of N Z$20–24m in FY26, with increased operating leverage in the medium term. We update our valuation for AFT to N Z$691.4m or N Z$6.59/share, from N Z$697.4m or N Z$6.65/share previously.

• Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
• Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula, which led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
• The company has successfully advanced battery metals and hydrogen metal mines into production in the Russian Arctic.

• Q4 FY3/25 results showed OP margin improvement YoY (Q4 FY3/24 6.1%, Q4 FY3/25 6.3%) as both DH Group (formerly Entertainment) and AGEST Group (formerly Enterprise) improved margins, although consolidated OP saw a small decline (-4.1% YoY).
• DH Group’s segment OP declined (-9.9% YoY), but the segment OP margin improved (Q4 FY3/24 7.1%, Q4 FY3/25 7.3%), reflecting the sale of a low-margin subsidiary.
• AGEST Group’s segment OP increased (+8.4% YoY) with the improved segment OP margin (Q4 FY3/24 4.5%, Q4 FY3/25 5.1%) on the back of better profitability in overseas QA Solutions than Q4 FY3/24.