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Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 89 of 222 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) – National TCM VBP Results and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) – National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine
  • Intel Planing on Pulling A Samsung
  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): Improving Core Operation and Future Expansion to Drive Growth


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) – National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The results of National TCM VBP were released, with average price reduction of 49.36%, involving multiple large varieties with sales over RMB1 billion and exclusive products from many listed companies.
  • CDE will move closer to the FDA’s standard for approving new drugs. So, pharmaceutical companies need to update clinical strategies timely according to the situation, otherwise unexpected events may occur.
  • We analyzed some key points about Hua Medicine Ltd (2552 HK). We think its core drug Dorzagliatin still has many uncertainties that are worth investors’ attention.

Intel Planing on Pulling A Samsung

By William Keating

  • By combining TMG+TD+IFS into a single reportable segment, all internal demand will move to this new entity, leapfrogging Intel to global #2 foundry by Q1’24 instead of by 2030
  • This new structure risks obfuscating the details of external foundry customer growth
  • A much simpler step by step approach which achieves all Intel’s stated goals while retaining visibility into IFS would be far more preferable from a shareholder perspective

Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): Improving Core Operation and Future Expansion to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) recorded 23% YoY increase in non-COVID medical services revenue in 1Q23, mainly driven by higher pay per bed and utilization of inpatient division.
  • With the recovery in core healthcare services, THG expects its revenue to grow 10% YoY this year, accelerating from 6% revenue growth recorded in 2022.
  • In the next 3 years, THG plans to increase 195 outpatient rooms and 419 beds and is set to spend nearly THB5 billion on capex during 2023–2025.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: JMT Network Services – SET Elimination and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • JMT Network Services – SET Elimination, ROA Halving, Worsening Credit Metrics
  • China Banks Screen; Focus on the Credit Quality Risks
  • Asahi Broadcasting Group Holdings Corporation (9405 JP) – 4Q Follow-Up
  • Ambarella Inc.: A New AI Powerhouse? – Key Drivers
  • Amkor Technology: 4 Key Factors That Will Help Offset The Revenue Decline – Financial Forecasts
  • Cirrus Logic Inc.: The Role Of Innovation & Other Factors In The Company’s Success – Key Drivers


JMT Network Services – SET Elimination, ROA Halving, Worsening Credit Metrics

By Daniel Tabbush

  • JMT Network services does debt collection for banks in Thailand
  • Earnings are good but not relative to its asset growth with worsening provisions
  • Its ROA appears to be in structural decline, with worsening credit metrics in 1Q23

China Banks Screen; Focus on the Credit Quality Risks

By Victor Galliano

  • In this China banks screener; we focus on the potential for increased credit quality headwinds going forward, given the weak GDP growth outlook
  • China bank shares have been poor performers and still we see selective buy opportunities, with better credit quality metrics
  • We favour Industrial Bank and CCB both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng, on the other hand, remains exposed to a worsening of the credit quality cycle

Asahi Broadcasting Group Holdings Corporation (9405 JP) – 4Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Over the last 5 years, share prices of major terrestrial TV broadcasters have substantially underperformed TOPIX, in large part due to the unprecedented, challenging environment as annual data by Dentsu showed total internet advertising expenditures exceeded total television media advertising expenditures in 2019 for the first time ever, and the annual MIC survey on average time spent using main media showed internet usage time exceeded TV real-time viewing in 2020.
  • However, this underperformance trend has begun to change in 2023, as the stock market begins to discount the potential to commercialize the IP value of broadcaster content libraries.
  • In February, USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS announced plans to acquire Premium PlatformJapan, Inc. (PPJ), the operator of “Paravi” subscription video distribution service.

Ambarella Inc.: A New AI Powerhouse? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ambarella managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • However, despite these headwinds, the company’s Q1 results exceeded expectations.
  • The introduction of the CV3 platform marks a new phase in the development of the AI market for Ambarella.

Amkor Technology: 4 Key Factors That Will Help Offset The Revenue Decline – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Amkor Technology delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Despite the decline in revenue, the company’s diversified end-market exposure provided stability and resilience.
  • Amkor’s technology leadership in advanced packaging allowed them to win new programs in the communications market, offsetting the softening of the consumer and computing markets.

Cirrus Logic Inc.: The Role Of Innovation & Other Factors In The Company’s Success – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cirrus Logic managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company achieved a significant revenue of $1.9 billion.
  • We give Cirrus Logic a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Oriental Watch: Steady FY23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Watch: Steady FY23, Dividend Yield 14%, Cash >50% of Market Cap
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – Rationalising With Growth in Mind
  • Advantest (6857) | Time to Cash in the Chips?
  • Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction
  • Melco: Imminent Opening of Its Cyprus Resort Show Possible Upside in Sentiment Among Wary Investors
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Shifting to Higher Yield Products
  • Comms Group Limited – Vodafone Contract Extension and Expansion
  • STEELCASE, INC. – 1QFY24 Earnings Ahead of Estimates
  • OMG: High-Grade Drill Results Beneath Resource
  • CI Financial (TSX:CIX) – One Page Stock Pitch


Oriental Watch: Steady FY23, Dividend Yield 14%, Cash >50% of Market Cap

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) reported a steady result, with 2023 earnings <18% YoY ( adjusted for one-time gains in 2022 <5% YoY), which was broadly in line with our expectations. 
  • The DPS for FY23 was 61 cents (FY22: 74 cents) lower than our expectation of 65 cents, a 100% payout ratio equating to a 14% dividend yield.
  • Cash at 1.07 bn represents > 50% of market capitalization. We believe the management will dip into reserves when it requires to manage a decent payout for shareholders.

Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – Rationalising With Growth in Mind

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s announcement this week that it would cut 11% of its workforce was a move to rationalise costs to give the platform a sure footing for longer-term growth. 
  • Near-Term profit targets would be achieved without these recent cuts which are focused on addressing geographical cost imbalances and taking into account potential automation through the impact of Generative AI.
  • The outlook for growth this year looks promising, with the potential for a strong 2H recovery despite employee-related costs but cuts will establish a more competitive cost base long term. 

Advantest (6857) | Time to Cash in the Chips?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Advantest’s stock has doubled in the past two months, outperforming even Nvidia, indicating a potential peak in momentum
  • Near term technical indicators suggest the stock could be running out of steam, with few catalysts ahead of July Q1 earnings
  • The stock is trading at a significant premium to Japanese-listed SPE peers and its historical EV/EBIT multiple of 15x

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
  • Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
  • The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.

Melco: Imminent Opening of Its Cyprus Resort Show Possible Upside in Sentiment Among Wary Investors

By Howard J Klein

  • Melco has lagged other Asian operators as Macau recovery pits up speed. Concerns over debt levels continue.
  • Fair value estimated slightly above current trade largely reflecting 2022 results.Maca
  • Macau and Manila tracking positive, Cyprus could provide accretive EBITDA before end of this year and beyond/

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Shifting to Higher Yield Products

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) continues to march to the tune of its micro-lending capabilities with recent moves focused on growing its higher-yield Kupedes and ultra-micro loans. 
  • Upward pressure on funding costs in 1Q2023 was more than offset by a shift to higher-yield loans and lower cost of credit, with greater efficiencies through digital initiatives.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) is somewhat overcapitalized which allows for higher dividend payout and higher ROEs over time. The bank remains a core holding in Indonesia 

Comms Group Limited – Vodafone Contract Extension and Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Comms Group Ltd (ASX:CCG) has announced an extension of the Vodafone contract term to a minimum five-years together with an expansion in the range of services provided in delivering voice connectivity for Microsoft Teams, including the more advanced Operator Connect.
  • The extended agreement also includes a minimum monthly payment to CCG of A$30k beginning October 2023.
  • While our Vodafone assumptions are unchanged, and our medium-term expectations for Vodafone well above the minimum monthly payment, the revised agreement improves visibility and demonstrates Vodafone’s commitment to the relationship. 

STEELCASE, INC. – 1QFY24 Earnings Ahead of Estimates

By Water Tower Research

  • After market close on June 21, Steelcase reported 1QFY24 GAAP EPS of $0.01 and non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.09, beating consensus of $0.01 and our $0.03 estimate (both adjusted).
  • Adjusted EPS excluded $0.05 of restructuring and $0.03 in purchased intangible amortization.
  • Reported consolidated 1QFY24 revenue of $751.9 million was also better than consensus of $719 million and our $715 million estimate.

OMG: High-Grade Drill Results Beneath Resource

By Atrium Research

  • The Company has completed 11 drill holes, totalling 3,569m.
  • This morning, Omai Gold Mines Corp. (OMG:TSXV, OMGGF:OTC) announced additional outstanding drill results from the Omai gold project in Guyana.
  • In 2023, a total of 3,569m have been completed in 11 holes with one hole being reported today.

CI Financial (TSX:CIX) – One Page Stock Pitch

By Hurdle Rate

  • CI Financial is a publicly owned asset management holding company.
  • Through its subsidiaries, the firm manages separate client focused equity, fixed income, and alternative investments portfolios.
  • It also manages mutual funds, hedge funds, and fund of funds for its clients through its subsidiaries.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Fushan Energy Shareholder Selldown Implications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Fushan Energy Shareholder Selldown Implications
  • Japan Post Bank – Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO’s, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk
  • Nitori: 33 Years of Revenue Growth
  • Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37.5) TP Change:Promotion and Expansion Are the Main Theme
  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Demonstrating the Capability to Come Back
  • Polaris Group (6550 TT): Preparing for Filing Marketing Approval of First Drug Candidate in US
  • BlackRock: Higher Entry Fees And Incentives Inbound (Rating Upgrade)
  • Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)
  • 3D Medicines (1244.HK) – The Bubble Will Eventually Burst
  • Nanoco Group – Returning cash and investing in the business


Fushan Energy Shareholder Selldown Implications

By Sameer Taneja

  • Funde Sino Life Insurance, a significant shareholder of Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK), has sold down its stake in the company by 3.31% to  27.96% as per recent filings.
  • Along with coking coal prices remaining weak, this creates a massive overhang clubbed with uncertainty on the share price in the short term. 
  • It also creates an opportunity as the stock has almost 70% of its market capitalization in cash, a low-cost advantage, and a dividend yield of at least 12% for FY23e.

Japan Post Bank – Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO’s, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Bank is no ordinary bank, without much loans, and mostly investments
  • It is well-known for its US CLO exposure, but also moving more into private equity
  • Many moving parts to the bank’s earnings, where we see downside risk on profit

Nitori: 33 Years of Revenue Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Nitori, Japan’s largest furniture retailer, once again grew consolidated revenues in its extended financial year to March.
  • Despite the increased costs of imports, profits also rose, although net profits saw a rare decline.
  • The group still has strong growth potential: it continues to diversify, including into apparel, expand its omnichannel operations and is now building more stores overseas. 

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37.5) TP Change:Promotion and Expansion Are the Main Theme

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Luckin to report 2Q23 rev. at 75.0% YoY and 30.1% QoQ to RMB5,771mn. We expect GPM, non-GAAP OPM, non-GAAP NPM to decline 3.7ppt, 3.6ppt, and 3.9ppt QoQ .
  • Luckin is putting scale ahead of profitability, surpassing 10k total stores in 2Q23 and heading to 12k total stores in 2023, while maintaining a decent margin. 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating and cut TP by US$3.5 to US$37.5 (36x PE in 2024) to factor in the margin dilution effect from sales promotion.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Demonstrating the Capability to Come Back

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK) posted good FY22/23 result, supporting by sharp recovery in its investment portfolio contribution. Its apparel business also witnessed narrowing losses.
  • It trades on 0.2x P/B, with most of book value being cash and investment portfolio. It is true that it deserves a discount but this is just too deep.
  • Fading pandemic impact should be positive to CNDX’s apparel business – it has already witnessed a 5.6pp increase in offline sales. More brand promotion should be a positive driver.

Polaris Group (6550 TT): Preparing for Filing Marketing Approval of First Drug Candidate in US

By Tina Banerjee

  • Polaris Group (6550 TT) is in a process to file first BLA to the FDA for its lead drug candidate ADI-PEG 20 as a potential treatment of malignant pleural Mesothelioma.
  • Although Polaris announced positive top-line result from Phase 2/3 study of ADI-PEG 20, overall survival was shorter than existing FDA-approved treatment, causing a massive sell-off in Polaris shares.
  • However, the results are not fully comparable due to the different mechanism of action of the drugs under trial. Future growth prospect is not reflected in current share price performance.

BlackRock: Higher Entry Fees And Incentives Inbound (Rating Upgrade)

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • BlackRock, Inc. stock is overlooked, as most market participants have yet to recognize the firm’s recent inflection points.
  • The firm’s base rates improved in Q1, which we think will continue into late 2023 and early 2024.
  • However, we still back BlackRock’s stock to succeed.

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
  • We look forward to learning more about J&T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
  • Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance

3D Medicines (1244.HK) – The Bubble Will Eventually Burst

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.
  • 3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.
  • The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.

Nanoco Group – Returning cash and investing in the business

By Edison Investment Research

Nanoco has announced its intention to return £33–40m of the funds won through the settlement with Samsung to shareholders, retaining £20m to execute its growth and intellectual property (IP) licensing strategy. Management expects to start this programme after it has received the second $75m tranche in February 2024 from the Samsung litigation. Operationally, multiple end-customer trials via Nanoco’s major partner are ongoing and it is seeing renewed interest from the display market. The group also intends to seek further value from its IP portfolio, having identified a number of other potentially infringing third parties.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba’s Chairman & CEO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba’s Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade
  • Coupang(CPNG US, SELL, TP US$15.1) Rating Change: Facing More Competition from AliExpress,DG to Sell
  • Thailand Casinos: A Game Changer in Early Stages that Could Move Faster than Believed at This Point
  • Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan
  • Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Investor Day Brings New Surprises
  • Elastic N.V.: Does The Impressive Cloud Growth Make This A ‘Buy’? – Key Drivers
  • UMP Healthcare Webinar Key Takeaways – Consolidation on the Investment Phase
  • Tesla: Riding The Wave (Update)
  • Ricoh (7752 JP) – Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits


Alibaba’s Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Daniel Zhang’s transition to a less prominent role within Alibaba’s Cloud business, after previously serving as CEO and Chairman of Alibaba Group (9988 HK), could be seen as a demotion.
  • We suspect that there could be some government influence on these proposed leadership changes.
  • Nonetheless, the situation is not encouraging, especially as the company enters a turbulent phase with multiple units poised to pursue IPOs in the near future.

Coupang(CPNG US, SELL, TP US$15.1) Rating Change: Facing More Competition from AliExpress,DG to Sell

By Shawn Yang

  • AliExpress has prioritized South Korea. We expect AliExpress’ South Korea GMV to increase 150%~ YoY to about US 1bn in 2023, or about 3% of Coupang’s. 
  • We found that AliExpress has more overlap with CPNG’s key products rather than Naver. The average price of recommended items on AliExpress was 65%~ cheaper than CPNG in our sample; 
  • We lower our CPNG GMV est. by 2%/3% in 2023/2024. We downgrade CPNG to SELL and lower its TP to US$ 15.1. 

Thailand Casinos: A Game Changer in Early Stages that Could Move Faster than Believed at This Point

By Howard J Klein

  • Initial positive study by legislative group completed in 2021. Regulatory follow up could move faster than generally believed igniting a process for market leaders in Asia.
  • Initial study recommended Bangkok and 22 regional, smaller scale properties including world famous resort area Phuket.
  • Baseline tourism to Thailand in 2019 rated as the 5th largest on the globe.

Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Poised for Profitability rebound in FY3/25 putting Nikon on track to meet mid-term plan targets.  
  • ArF Unit Expansion as Intel benefits from government fiscal incentives to build fabs in EU and US. 
  • Based on the FY3/26 plan for EBIT of Y70b, the stock’s theoretical valuation would reach around Y2,200/share

Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).
  • Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.
  • Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Investor Day Brings New Surprises

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • A major reason for investors’ disappointment is that the number of new projects in 23H1 were significantly lower-than-expected. The impact of slowdown in financing activity began to show in 23H1.
  • Higher revenue growth of non-COVID projects is needed to achieve the performance guidance target.If the management fail to fulfill the commitment to accelerate business recovery in 23H2,they may lose creditability.
  • It’s unlikely to receive AD drugs orders this year. The market would react directly to short-term sentiment. Without big catalysts, it’s difficult for WuXi Bio’s stock price to perform well.

Elastic N.V.: Does The Impressive Cloud Growth Make This A ‘Buy’? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elastic managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • In Q4, total revenue increased by 19% year over year in constant currency, while Elastic Cloud increased by 30% year over year in constant currency.
  • The subscription revenue was $256 million, increasing 16% year over year or 18% in constant currency, and made up 91% of the overall revenue.

UMP Healthcare Webinar Key Takeaways – Consolidation on the Investment Phase

By Sameer Taneja

  • We held a conference call with the Chief Investment Officer of UMP Healthcare (722 HK), Patrick Cheung, on the 19th of June, 2023. 
  • The company continues to forge strategic alliances and collaborations, the latest being Hong Kong Adventist Hospital, in addition to the recent partnerships with Pedder Health/Human Health Holdings (1410 HK).
  • The stock represents an excellent opportunity when trading at 6.6x PE FY23E with 44% of the market capitalization in cash and a 7.7% dividend yield on our numbers (50% payout).

Tesla: Riding The Wave (Update)

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Risks such as potential asset impairments, the stock’s volatility, and industry fragmentation persist.
  • However, key valuation metrics coupled with our analysis leaves us with the conclusion that Tesla’s stock remains grossly undervalued.
  • The company’s price cuts might be phased out by softening material costs, the company says.

Ricoh (7752 JP) – Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

By Robert C Prather Jr

  • Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure
  • Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) appears to be losing share in a shrinking market
  • Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang
  • Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers
  • Alteogen (196170 KS): Milestone Payments and Pipeline Progress Strengthen Business Growth Prospect
  • Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation
  • Meta’s Moat
  • Viva Biotech Holdings (1873.HK) – The Restructuring Plan Would Not Turn Things Around
  • 1Spatial – First wins for key SaaS product
  • Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus


LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 16 June, it was reported in the local media that LG Chem is close to selling about 2 trillion won worth of LG Energy Solution.
  • This block deal sale is likely to pose overhang on more stake sales of LG Energy Solution (about 10% stake) in the next 3-5 years.
  • Our NAV valuation analysis of LG Chem suggests an implied price of 1,057,770 won per share, which is 41% higher than current share price.

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.
  • In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.
  • In January 2023, Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.

Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

By Eric Chen

  • We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.
  • During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.
  • We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.

Alteogen (196170 KS): Milestone Payments and Pipeline Progress Strengthen Business Growth Prospect

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)‘s partner has submitted marketing application for Herceptin biosimilar in China. Alteogen will be entitled for royalty after the product is approved and sold in China.  
  • In April 2023, Alteogen announced that the company will receive additional milestone of $3 million (~KRW4 billion) from its first ALT-B4 technology transfer partner.
  • Alteogen has completed patient recruitment for global phase 3 trial for Eylea biosimilar. Marketing application is expected to be filed in early 2024, with marketing expected to start from 1H25.

Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan’s strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the short term.
  • Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.
  • However, Fast Retailing’s valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.

Meta’s Moat

By MBI Deep Dives

  • During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook’s DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?
  • The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.
  • I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873.HK) – The Restructuring Plan Would Not Turn Things Around

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In the past few years, the investment business and M&A of Viva accelerated based on a series of financing tools such as IPO/placement/convertible bonds. Thus, Viva’s scale has grown rapidly.
  • Continuous decline in stock price ultimately triggered a “redemption crisis” for Viva’s convertible bonds.Although Viva resolved it by transferring equity in its CRO subsidiary, the prospects are still not optimistic.
  • Due to the downturn in innovative drug industry and deterioration of financing environment,whether the high valuation of Viva’s CRO business would be recognized by secondary market is a question mark.

1Spatial – First wins for key SaaS product

By Edison Investment Research

1Spatial has won its first two contracts for 1Streetworks, the company’s SaaS-based Traffic Management Plan Automation product. This is an important development for the company in that the potential addressable market for this product is large; management estimates around £250m for low speed roads in the UK alone and 1Spatial looks well positioned to gain a significant market share. 1Streetworks also runs on the company’s newly launched cloud-based platform, representing an important milestone in 1Spatial’s migration to a scalable, SaaS-based model. Both contracts are for a three-month term initially, with the intention to move to annual or multi-year contracts upon successful completion. We are not changing our estimates at this stage. Further deal flow for 1Streetworks (or other SaaS products), together with the continuation of these initial deals to longer engagements, could be the catalyst for stronger growth and margin expansion to become priced in.


Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics ‘Bingo!’ card rather than in-line with a rational strategy
  • In recent years, investors have punished the company’s shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. 
  • However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: UOB & DBS – Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • UOB & DBS – Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises
  • SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?
  • Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)
  • Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs rally on sigh of relief post June FOMC pause
  • JEV – The Best of Both Worlds: O&G and Hydrogen


UOB & DBS – Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

By Daniel Tabbush

  • UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%
  • During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%
  • In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS

SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia

By Shawn Yang

  • Recently, there has been more discussion about TikTok’s e-commerce business in Southeast Asia on Chinese media and social networks.
  • Many service providers and entrepreneurs in China have also been inspired and hope to take the lead in the market with their domestic experience.
  • We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 GMV in Southeast Asia will reach 20%~ of Shopee, and this is one of the key reasons why we are bearish to SE.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand surged 20% since our last trade monitor piece. This was without any significant news and the company received another query from the stock exchange as a result.
  • Delta Taiwan increased by a higher 22%, thus the extreme valuation mismatch between the two has corrected slightly. Delta Taiwan is still only 0.78x the market cap of Delta Thailand.
  • Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta’s battery management product portfolio and add client relationships.

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.
  • In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.
  • Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at — The company highlighted support for Intel’s new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.
  • Memory Chip Stocks — Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.
  • Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • AbbVie’s patent infringement allegations against BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) is an attempt to obstruct BeiGene through legal means and save Imbruvica’s sales decline in the market. AbbVie came prepared this time.
  • BeiGene has a chance to win the lawsuit if without any political factors.But if BeiGene fails to walk away unscathed, any damages/patent royalty would be detrimental to its financial performance/forecast.
  • The real key point in determining BeiGene’s future turnaround is not this lawsuit, but the clinical results of TIGIT project. Even with the correction since May, BeiGene is still expensive.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
  • Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
  • We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets

Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
  • On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
  • Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.

REIT Watch – S-REITs rally on sigh of relief post June FOMC pause

By Geoff Howie

  • Top 10 S-Reits & property trusts that gained during the week of FOMC June 2023 meeting Key news last week was the US Federal Reserve’s decision to put a pause on interest rates, keeping them unchanged as announced during this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
  • The top 5 gainers among S-REITs & Property Trusts during the week until Thursday’s close were: Keppel REIT (5.9 per cent), Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (5.6 per cent), Mapletree Logistics Trust (5.5 per cent), CapitaLand India Trust (4.7 per cent), and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (3.8 per cent).

JEV – The Best of Both Worlds: O&G and Hydrogen

By Atrium Research

  • Jericho’s O&G JV assets are harvesting record cash flow and growing production steadily. 
  • JEV’s wholly owned Hydrogen Technologies has an innovative solution for clean hydrogen boilers.
  • This business allows JEV to generate non-dilutive cash flow which can be re-invested in the high multiple hydrogen industry.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) – Cars and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) – Cars, Drugs, and Data Centres
  • Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK): Fund Raising Through Offloading Stake in CRO Arm


Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) – Cars, Drugs, and Data Centres

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) remains one of the most interesting industrial estate developers in Indonesia with a high-quality tenant base across growth sectors including autos, 2W, pharmaceuticals, and data centres.
  • The completion of a new AEON Mall will provide a further draw for the estate as a destination and a place to live and work and is increasingly well-connected.
  • DMAS had a slower start to the year for revenues but marketing sales are running ahead of schedule having beat last year, with bookings expected to pick up in 2023.

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK): Fund Raising Through Offloading Stake in CRO Arm

By Tina Banerjee

  • Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is raising RMB1.06 billion (~$150 million) through offloading ~24% of its equity interest in Viva Shanghai, the primary entity of the company’s CRO business.
  • The consideration implies a revenue ratio and gross profit ratio of 4.90x and 11.04x, respectively. The ratios are at the similar level of the average ratios of other comparable peers.
  • Going ahead, Viva Biotech is planning to spin off its CRO business for separate listing in the A-shares market. IPO application is expected to be filed by June 30, 2024.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Adobe 2Q’23 Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Adobe 2Q’23 Update
  • Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK): Coffee and Cash Machine
  • Gap Trades of Small Cap Korean Pref Vs Common Shares
  • Nio Ends Holdout in China’s Auto Price War
  • Apple (AAPL) – The Big Apple = Most Valuable Company on Planet Earth
  • ECVT: Red Devil in the Details
  • Immix Biopharma – ATM completion may extend runway into H224
  • Kimberly-Clark: Short-Term Tailwinds, But Little Hope For The Long Run
  • Applied Materials Inc.: Launch of New R&D Facility & Other Drivers
  • Marvell Technology Inc.: Launch Of Silicon Interconnects A Possible Game Changer? – Key Drivers


Adobe 2Q’23 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Revenue: Digital Media net new ARR $470 Mn ($50 mn higher than guide).
  • Gross Margin: Digital Media gross margin remains steady at ~96%, but Digital Experience posted its highest ever gross margin of 67.3% in 2Q’23.

  • Cost Structure: 2Q’23 GAAP operating margin was 33.7%, down from 34.9% in 2Q’22.


Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK): Coffee and Cash Machine

By Sameer Taneja

  • Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), a manufacturer of controllers for coffee machines, has a 23-year track record of operating margins of over 40% and ROCEs of over 20%.  
  • Trading at 11.9x trailing PE, with a dividend yield of 9%, and 15% of the market cap in cash, the company has been serially paying dividends (payout > 70%). 
  • In its 2022 annual report, for the first time in its history, the company mentioned it has exciting growth plans that will be revealed over the year. 

Gap Trades of Small Cap Korean Pref Vs Common Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide gap trade opportunities among 30 small cap Korean preferred stocks with market cap of less than 100 billion won and more than 20 billion won.
  • Among these 30 companies, there are some in interesting gap trade opportunities, especially among those with relatively high dividend yields (more than 5%).
  • We have ranked these 30 stocks in terms of three criteria including market cap, pref/common share price ratio, and dividend yields. 

Nio Ends Holdout in China’s Auto Price War

By Caixin Global

  • Electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc. ended its holdout in China’s car price war and slashed base prices on all of its vehicles by 30,000 yuan ($4,200) in hopes of bolstering sales amid escalating competition in China, the world’s largest auto market.
  • Nio also pulled the plug on its free battery-exchange service for car buyers and introduced a pay-as-you-go system and a 30,000 yuan lifetime swap service.
  • The vehicle price cuts announced Monday will reduce the starting price of Nio’s new electric SUV ES6 to 338,000 yuan. The price of the mid-size electric sedan model ET5 will be lowered to 298,000 yuan. The changes take effect immediately, Nio said.

Apple (AAPL) – The Big Apple = Most Valuable Company on Planet Earth

By Maverick Equity Research

  • First of all, Apple is the most valuable company on the planet with a $2.8 trillion market capitalisation and eying for the whooping $3 trillion: +41% in 2023 alone.
  • And that equates to a total return in the last 10 years of a whooping 1,266%! Note also it was not a smooth run with some big drawdowns which even they had: 2016: 32%, 2019: 39%
  • Key take-away: business ownership vs stock ticker mentality is key …

ECVT: Red Devil in the Details

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT has experienced a series of block trades over the past year after its largest shareholder decided to liquidate its position.
  • The block sales overshadow the second quarter that is expected to show a rebound in ECVT’s ecoservices
  • For second quarter 2023 we are raising our sales and adjusted EBITDA estimate

Immix Biopharma – ATM completion may extend runway into H224

By Edison Investment Research

Immix Biopharma has completed its $5.0m at-the-market (ATM) offering program. The funding is as a result of the initial share sales agreement in March 2023 and is anticipated to further support Immix’s pipeline activities with the development of its key assets: the CAR-T treatment, NXC-201, and the tissue-specific therapeutic, IMX-110. We view the ATM offering as a positive, especially in light of the current macro funding environment for biotech companies.


Kimberly-Clark: Short-Term Tailwinds, But Little Hope For The Long Run

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Kimberly-Clark’s disappointing performance in recent years is hardly a surprise and does not make the company a bargain.
  • The short-term perspective on margins remains mixed, in spite of the management’s optimism.
  • KMB could no longer support these activities, according to the company’s management.

Applied Materials Inc.: Launch of New R&D Facility & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Despite weaknesses in consumer electronics, the company sees robust demand driven by technology inflections and regional supply chain investments.
  • Applied Materials noted that leading-edge foundry logic customers have adjusted their spending plans but remain committed to their long-term roadmaps.

Marvell Technology Inc.: Launch Of Silicon Interconnects A Possible Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marvell managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company sees significant opportunities in the AI sector, as AI data centers require high-capacity, low-latency connectivity, driving demand for Marvell’s PAM4 optical DSP platform.
  • Marvell expects the AI trend to continue growing, with plans to double revenue in fiscal 2024 and at least double it again in fiscal 2025.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm
  • Richemont: Prestigious Maisons
  • M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing
  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU): FY23 Guidance Cut Drags Near-Term Prospect; Long-Term Growth Drivers Still Intact
  • Tencent/700.HK: Pros and Cons of Wechat Video Accounts, a Summary of On-The-Ground Discussions
  • VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside
  • Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab
  • Games Workshop Group – FY23 profit ahead of previous FY24 estimates


A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm

By Douglas Kim

  • There has been a big divergence in the share prices of Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm in the past two months. 
  • This divergence in share price appears to be a bit too excessive and we believe this gap is likely to narrow in the coming weeks.  
  • We like a pair trade between going long Hanmi Science and going short on Hanmi Pharm. 

Richemont: Prestigious Maisons

By Alexis Dwek

  • FY 2023 was a record year for Richemont with double-digit growth, confirming the Company’s best-in-class fundamentals (pricing power and high barriers to entry), and resilience to challenging market conditions
  • Coming out of the pandemic, Richemont Jewellery Maisons have been one of the clear market share winners in the sector
  • The Company’s strong sales, profit and cash flows confirm the strong appeal for its Maisons and relevance for long-term growth

M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3’s share price dropped around 9% after 4QFY03/2023 earnings, however, it went up by more than 8% since then following the announcement regarding the acquisition of Kantar’s healthcare research businesses.
  • Our estimates suggest that new acquisition would not contribute to any meaningful growth in the near term. Despite having large no. of M&A deals, growth rates have started to fall.
  • We think there is further downside to M3 Inc (2413 JP) ‘s consensus FY+2 earnings estimates and we would recommend shorting the stock.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): FY23 Guidance Cut Drags Near-Term Prospect; Long-Term Growth Drivers Still Intact

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU) has reduced its profit projection for FY23 due to higher-than-anticipated adverse impact from Fx. The company now expects a Fx headwind of $230–250M from $175M earlier.
  • After considering modest recovery of CSL Behring gross margin and generic competition for Ferinject in Europe, CSL expects FY24 NPATA to grow 13–18% to $2.9–3.0B at constant currency.
  • All eyes are now on the U.S. launch of the one-time gene therapy Hemgenix for Hemophilia B. CSL expects the first patient to take Hemgenix within the next few weeks.

Tencent/700.HK: Pros and Cons of Wechat Video Accounts, a Summary of On-The-Ground Discussions

By Shawn Yang

  • Recently, there has been an increase in discussions about Wechat Video Accounts (known as “ShiPinHao”) on local Chinese media and social networks. 
  • Overall, merchants acknowledge the potential of Video Accounts and are willing to give it a try, but the results vary significantly among different businesses.
  • We expect that Wechat Video Account will remain to have a high speed growth in the next several quarters, but the market expectation is also high.

VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Hello from Kyoto! If there was a single big story from VLSI this year, it had to be Backside Power Delivery (BSPDN). VLSI is one of the premier conferences for semiconductor design and has been held since the 1980s.
  • Today it’s one of the best places to present cutting-edge research in circuit technology.
  • The key revolutionary announcement at VLSI this year was BSPDN. Let’s discuss.

Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab

By Edison Investment Research

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) saw a decline in its NAV per share between end-2021 and end-March 2023 of c 48% to €7.35, mostly on the back of the de-ratings of listed holdings (in particular flatexDEGIRO), as well as an NAV dilutive share issue in March 2023. That said, the valuations of HEP’s private holdings have remained largely resilient during recent funding rounds, and Enpal even carried out a new round in Q422 at a significant uplift to its previous valuation. Moreover, flatexDEGIRO’s share price has rebounded by c 32% in the year to date. HEP recently announced its intention to enter into merger negotiations with FinLab (its major shareholder and owner of HEP’s investment manager).


Games Workshop Group – FY23 profit ahead of previous FY24 estimates

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) FY23 trading update indicates an improvement in underlying trading in the latter months of the period and the expected easing of cost pressures. The strength of the improvement is evident in the fact that FY23 PBT is greater than both our previous FY23 and FY24 estimates. We upgrade our FY24 PBT estimates by c 4%, which incorporates an underlying upgrade offset by a new foreign exchange headwind.


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