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Event-Driven Archives | Smartkarma

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang
  • Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 4 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
  • SPAC Developments, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Strategic Acquisitions
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): Composite Doc Out. 24th July H-Class Meeting
  • Ralliant Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Weekly Update (IGT/BRSL, FTV, RAL)
  • Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables



Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
  • Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
  • The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 4 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

SPAC Developments, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Strategic Acquisitions

By Special Situation Investments

  • Yorkville Acquisition (YORKU) is a new SPAC sponsored by Yorkville Advisors, with Trump Media executives on its board.
  • Banxa (BNXA:V) merger with OSL Group offers a 23% spread; shareholder vote scheduled for August, pending regulatory approval.
  • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) board overhaul process initiated by major shareholders; management contests legality, potential buyout talks with Danone.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Composite Doc Out. 24th July H-Class Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • After the Offeror for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) fulfilled pre-cons on the 3rd July, the Composite was dispatched on the 4th July (but dated 5th July). 
  • The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 24th July. Settlement should be on ore around the 11th August, well ahead of my prior estimate.
  • Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 4.2%/49.6%. Get involved if illiquid arbs are your bag.

Ralliant Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Fortive (FTV) spun off Ralliant (RAL) on Monday June 30, 2025. Shareholders received a share of RAL for 3 shares of FTV owned.

  • Ralliant generated $2.2B of revenue in 2024.

  • Key segments: 56% of sales in Sensors & Safety (power‑grid monitors, defense, critical-environment sensors) and 44% in Test & Measurement (electronic instrumentation, systems, software).


Weekly Update (IGT/BRSL, FTV, RAL)

By Richard Howe

  • Fortive (FTV) spun off 1 share of Ralliant (RAL) for each 3 shares owned.
  • As such, Ralliant has 113MM shares outstanding and a market cap of $5.1BN and enterprise value of $6.1BN.
  • The rationale for the spin-off is to separate the “BadCo” (Ralliant) from the “GoodCo” (Fortive RemainCo).

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
  • At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
  • Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Talkmed, Jilin Jiutai Bank, Insignia, Silk Logistics, Fengxiang, Nissin, VIOL


Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • On July 2nd, Gabriel India (GABR IN) announced its strategic restructuring plan, merging key entities to diversify its business and unlock significant shareholder value.
  • The merger increases promoter shareholding from 55% to 63.5%, with projected EPS accretion of 41%.
  • This move positions Gabriel India as a multi-product leader, enhancing global OEM partnerships and boosting market presence in key automotive segments.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

By David Blennerhassett

  • Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on Shibaura (6957 JP), risks are slightly higher. <¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.
  • As expected (at least by me) – I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK).
  • Re: New World Development (17 HK), this “rescue package” announcement – ~HK$88.2bn – should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Talkmed, Jilin Jiutai Bank, Insignia, Silk Logistics, Fengxiang, Nissin, VIOL

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice


Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK) was suspended, again, I mused in Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted an expected Offer from Jilin Province Trust.
  • Jilin Province has now made a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.2x P/B!), below my HK$0.80/share estimate. Apart from a Scheme-like vote, this Offer has an onerous 90% acceptance condition. 
  • And IF the Offer fails and IF Jilin Jiutai cannot resume trading, in accordance with Rule 6.01A(2)(b) of the Listing Rules, Jilin Jiutai may be delisted.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
  • KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied
  • New World Resources (NWC AU): Yes, The Board Is Frustrating Kinterra’s Bid
  • Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something’s Up (As Is The Share Price)
  • Event Driven: Apollo’s Restructuring-Unlocking Value in India’s Omni-Channel Healthcare Ecosystem
  • Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): A Conditional VGO Puts Minorities Between a Rock and a Hard Place
  • Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Green Light
  • Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Possible Payment Mid-September


[Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA

By Travis Lundy

  • YAGEO’s deal for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) had been extended a couple of times – once for Shibaura’s yuho, and once for Taiwan Investment Commission Approval. 
  • YAGEO had re-filed its notification for FEFTA on 2 June, and the “normal” 30 day waiting period expired 1 July. YAGEO extended by 4 business days to 15 July.
  • The TRS amendment was less informative than the TDNET release today. That’s worth reading. More waiting ahead. But the timing may be politically strategic.

KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps

By Douglas Kim

  • KCC announced that it is issuing an EB worth $625 million in foreign currency using its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as the underlying asset. 
  • The asset that is used as the underlying asset for the EB is 2.056 million shares of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering held by the KCC Corp
  • We believe this large EB issue by KCC Corp is likely to have a positive impact on KCC Corp but slightly negative impact on HD KSOE.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. 
  • Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
  • The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. 

New World Resources (NWC AU): Yes, The Board Is Frustrating Kinterra’s Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Suitors Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra Capital are locked at A$0.062/share bids apiece for copper play New World Resources (NWC AU).
  • Kinterra has tapped the Takeovers Panel after NWC failed to terminate the CAML placement “despite the relevant condition for the termination of that agreement having been satisfied“.
  • Kinterra’s application has merit. Expect the Panel to make orders preventing the placement. Kinterra currently holds 19.3% of shares out and CAML 12.08%

Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something’s Up (As Is The Share Price)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global’s failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play Coronado (CRN AU)‘s shares trading around an all-time low. 
  • Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.
  • What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.

Event Driven: Apollo’s Restructuring-Unlocking Value in India’s Omni-Channel Healthcare Ecosystem

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) is demerging its omni-channel pharmacy and digital health business into a new entity, later merging with Keimed ltd, the wholesale pharmacy distribution arm.
  • The reorganisation aims to unlock shareholder value, enhance operational focus, and create a transparent, comprehensive pharmacy and digital healthcare platform.
  • The NewCo(AHL) targets INR 25,000 crore revenue(50%+) by FY27 from digital health and pharmacy scale-up, while core hospitals expand with new beds and high-value therapies.

Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): A Conditional VGO Puts Minorities Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Arun George

  • Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70 per H Share, a 70.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The key conditions are H Shareholder approval of the delisting proposal and a minimum acceptance condition (50% of outstanding and 90% of H shares).
  • Minorities are caught between a rock and a hard place, as the offer is unattractive, but the timeline for lifting the trading suspension is uncertain.  

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Green Light

By David Blennerhassett

  • Given the ACCC’s comprehensive list of concerns, as detailed in Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues, this approval comes as a (pleasant) surprise. 
  • DP World’s Offer for Silk Logistics (SLH AU) remains subject to FIRB signing off and a Scheme vote. Neither of which should pose an issue. 
  • Timing? The IE and Scheme Booklet are all in place – from December last year. This requires a new schedule from the Courts. A possible revised timetable suggest late-August completion. 

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025

By Special Situation Investments

  • Yorkville Acquisition and Lutnick’s SPACs are politically connected, targeting speculative capital tied to Trump’s administration and crypto.
  • Mayne Pharma’s merger with Cosette faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a court hearing set.
  • Lifeway Foods may be sold to Danone; shareholder campaign aims to overhaul the board for negotiations.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Possible Payment Mid-September

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 11th April, Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) announced a $2.00/share Offer, by way of a pre-conditional Merger by Absorption, from PAG.
  • Those pre-conditions (NDRC, Ministry of Commerce, and SAFE) have now been satisfied.  The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched no later than 11 July.
  • This Offer is a Merger by Absorption incorporating a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition. This is done. I estimate payment the second week of September

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No
  • BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2025)
  • Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent
  • Event Driven: Torrent Acquires JB Chemicals ~ The Second-Largest Pharma Deal in Indian History


Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No

By David Blennerhassett

  • A little over a year ago, I wrote about Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)‘s overly complicated scrip Offer in Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid.
  • In summary, Yichang HEC shareholders were being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”. These consideration shares are unlisted. The Offeror being Yichang HEC’s controlling shareholder (51.41%).
  • The Composite Doc and the Offeror’s Listing by Way Of Introduction Doc are out.  The independent H-shareholder vote is the 21st July. Shareholders should vote this down.

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell’s TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
  • BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
  • Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in May and June 2025.
  • There were 24 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
  • There were four companies with more than 100 billion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in May and June with at least 3% of outstanding shares. 

Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.
  • With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies >99% deal certainty.
  • Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.

Event Driven: Torrent Acquires JB Chemicals ~ The Second-Largest Pharma Deal in Indian History

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) is acquiring a controlling stake in J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCP IN) for INR 25,689 crore, marking the second-largest pharma deal in India’s history.
  • The acquisition strengthens Torrent’s market share in India, expands its therapeutic presence, and opens entry into the growing CDMO sector, diversifying its business model.
  • The merger is expected to drive revenue growth, improve margins, and provide operational synergies, with long-term gains in both domestic and international markets.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
  • HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
  • [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
  • Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal
  • Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios
  • Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment
  • Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report


[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

By Travis Lundy

  • On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
  • And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender. 
  • Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended. 

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas


Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
  • The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
  • Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

By Sanghyun Park

  • This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
  • Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
  • One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. 

Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 9th May 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered into a Scheme, at A$4.43/share (in cash), with CoStar, the same terms as the 27th March NBIO. 
  • Apart from the standard Scheme vote, this needs FIRB to sign off.  Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.05% shareholder) is supportive.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th August, and expected implementation on or before the 27th August. The IE (FGrant Samuel) says “fair & reasonable“.

Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Midea Group (300 HK) has received shareholder approval to spin off its technology-driven supply chain arm,Annto Logistics,for a separate listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • Annto has demonstrated consistent profitability, with cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB 883.42 million for 2022-2024.
  • Size to not exceed 20% of the enlarged share capital. The objective is to expand Annto’s financing avenues, accelerate growth,  & bolster operational independence within the Midea ecosystem.

Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 1 July, HD Hyundai Infracore announced that it will be merging with HD Hyundai Construction Equipment. 
  • The merger ratio is 0.1621707 common shares of HD Hyundai Construction Equipment for each common share of HD Hyundai Infracore. 
  • We have Negative ratings on both HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.

Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.
  • Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.
  • I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
  • Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
  • TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme
  • Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?
  • Buy International Gaming Technologies
  • High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic
  • Weekly Update (AMRZ, UNTC, MEDXF, IGT)
  • SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments
  • Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus


Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP) has recommended a J-STAR-sponsored MBO at JPY3,060, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • An attractive offer and irrevocables pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from July 1 to August 13, with payment due on August 20.

TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23 Dec 2024, tertiary health care provider TalkMed (TKMED SP)  announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Tamarind Health at S$0.456/share, a 20% premium to undisturbed.  
  • Tamarind is a Singaporean-based, pan-Asian oncology-focused group. As part of the deal, Temasek-backed 65 Equity Partners will subscribe for new shares in Tamarind.
  • The Composite Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 15th July, and expected payment around the 29th August. The IFA (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable“. 

Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Fortive and Ralliant began when-issued trading on June 25, 2025 under the ticker ‘FTV WI’ and ‘RAL WI’. 
  • The regular-way trading will begin on June 30, 2025. Ralliant will trade under the ticker ‘RAL’ and Fortive (ex Ralliant) will continue to trade under the ticker ‘FTV’.
  • As part of the transaction, FTV (ex RAL) will receive $1.15 billion in dividend from Ralliant Corp. RAL will assume debt to pay the cash dividend to FTV.

Buy International Gaming Technologies

By Richard Howe

  • International Gaming Technologies (IGT) is in the process of selling its Global Gaming and PlayDigital segments.
  • The merger arbitrage market implies a high likelihood that this deal closes soon ($14.23 share price for EVRI vs. acquisition price of $14.25).
  • Guidance is the deal could close as soon as July 1, 2025.

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
  • At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
  • Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

By David Blennerhassett

  • For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
  • The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Weekly Update (AMRZ, UNTC, MEDXF, IGT)

By Richard Howe

  • This week, I recommended a new idea: Buy International Gaming Technologies.

  • If you are interested in buying IGT, I would recommend doing so on Monday.

  • IGT is in the process of selling its Gaming division for $4BN, and the transaction could close as soon as Tuesday, July 1.


SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments

By Special Situation Investments

  • Cantor Equity Partners III (CAEP) added to tracking portfolio, trading at $10.50/share, 5% premium to trust value.
  • Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) stock rose 150% on positive phase 2b trial data for atopic dermatitis treatment Rezpeg.
  • SmartPay Holdings (SMP:AX) definitive agreement to be acquired by Shift4 Payments at NZ$1.20/share, 7% spread remains.

Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus

By Special Situation Investments

  • YORKU units trade at $11, with each unit including common stock backed by a $10/share trust value and one-third of a warrant.
  • Yorkville Advisors, tied to Trump-related ventures, sponsors YORKU, with a 25% stake and a $150m IPO size.
  • YORKU targets telecom, media, and digital assets sectors, with management linked to Trump Media and potential speculative opportunities.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
  • Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
  • HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
  • BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options
  • VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit


A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
  • It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

By Arun George

  • China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority. 
  • I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
  • Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

By Arun George

  • The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
  • The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
  • The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
  • Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
  • September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.

VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

By David Blennerhassett

  • VIG Partners, a PE-outfit, is seeking to delist VIOL (335890 KS), an aesthetic medical devices manufacturer, whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
  • VIG first acquired 7% of DMS (068790 KS)’s 34.76% controlling stake in VIOL, following which, DMS contributed the remaining 27.76% in-kind to VIG’s SPV at a valuation of ₩12,500/share.
  • VIG’s SPV’s tender offer launched on 18th June, also at ₩12,500/share, and runs until the 7th July 7. The Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance threshold of 20.76%.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm


Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

By David Blennerhassett

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
  • South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
  • Melco (200 HK)‘s 11.9% gain on the 26th June – on serious volume – was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
  • Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection
  • Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

By David Blennerhassett


Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection

By Douglas Kim

  • Minority shareholders of Hanwha Corp preferred shares are demanding better protection (such as converting preferred shares into common shares) and are criticizing the potential delisting of its shares. 
  • We provide four major scenarios that could occur for Hanwha Corp preferred shares (000885 KS) in the coming weeks. 
  • The fact that Hanwha Group companies are on such positive momentum, it would be in the best interest for Hanwha to improve shareholder value of the Hanwha Corp’s preferred shares.

Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 June, Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) announced that it is issuing an exchangeable bond (EB) worth 319 billion won based on its treasury shares.
  • Taekwang Industrial announced it will issue EBs with the 271,769 treasury stocks representing 24.41% of the issued shares. This is poor corporate governance and not shareholder friendly. 
  • Going forward, we believe its shares are likely to underperform the market in the next 1-2 years.

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