Event-Driven Archives | Page 7 of 186 | Smartkarma

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Sihuan Pharma (460 HK): On Xuanzhu Biopharm’s Imminent Spin-Off

On the 12th November 2024, Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK) proposed spinning-off the shares of Xuanzhu Biopharm on the main board of Hong Kong.
Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical‘s prospectus is now out. Shares are priced at HK$11.60/share, backing out a market cap of ~HK$6bn vs. Sihuan Pharma’s HK$17.4bn market cap. Trading commences on the 15th October.
Sihuan Pharma will hold 49.1% post IPO. Its share price is up 189% YTD. Looks frothy. Then again, so does Hong Kong’s IPO market.

Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Private debt terms signal stress. The primary lender’s 1YR term facility implies a 50%+ IRR via a MOIC option. This is under-covered and signals constrained alternatives.
Calendar precedes cash. Fixed obligations hit before revenue, so equity value is driven by sequencing rather than AI demand narratives.
Underwriting focus. Binding large-scale lease, funded bridge through fuel and logistics, and a credible take-out or refinance of the short-tenor facility.

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Oct 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
Yext Receives Privatization Offer: Board Evaluates Strategic Alternatives Amid Potential Bidding War
Infomedia (IFM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 November
Infomedia (IFM AU): 18th November Vote On TPG’s Offer
Capgemini–WNS: Locking in the Final Basis Points
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move
Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside
Yext’s Management-Led Privatization Proposal: Evaluating Strategic Alternatives Amidst AI Pivot and Shareholder Dynamics

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

Yext Receives Privatization Offer: Board Evaluates Strategic Alternatives Amid Potential Bidding War

The company received a non-binding privatization offer from the CEO at a 10% premium to pre-announcement levels.
A committee of independent directors is evaluating the offer and exploring other strategic alternatives, indicating the company is open to bids.
There is a high single-digit spread to the offer price, with limited downside due to strong recent earnings.

Infomedia (IFM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 November

The Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) IE considers TPG’s A$1.70 offer fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$1.57 to A$1.79 valuation range.
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, German FDI approval, and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is reasonable and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids.
The scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close and for a 3 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.4%.

Infomedia (IFM AU): 18th November Vote On TPG’s Offer

Back on the 11th July,Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
TPG offered A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards. All in, terms looked clean.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th November, and expected implementation on the 3rd December. The IE (Grant Thornton) says “fair & reasonable“.

Capgemini–WNS: Locking in the Final Basis Points

Capgemini’s $76.50 all-cash acquisition of WNS has cleared all approvals; only court sanction remains.
Scheme court hearing set for 9 October; settlement expected around 16 October 2025.
With a 0.25% gross spread, this is now a low-risk, near-cash arbitrage position.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.
Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.
Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.

Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside

By Garvit Bhandari

Corteva plans to spin-off its Seeds business in to a separate publicly liated company. Parent will retain the Crop Protection business
The separation enables sharper focus and capital allocation between two fundamentally different businesses.
The seed / trait business is viewed as the higher growth, higher innovation leg (gene editing, trait licensing, intellectual property). These attributes tend to attract premium multiples.

Yext’s Management-Led Privatization Proposal: Evaluating Strategic Alternatives Amidst AI Pivot and Shareholder Dynamics

Yext received a $9/share non-binding privatization offer from its CEO, with a 7% spread to the offer price.
The CEO’s funding sources are undisclosed, and he owns 2.5% of Yext, needing to raise nearly $1bn.
Major shareholders include Lead Edge Capital (10.2%) and Lynrock Lake (8.5%), with cost bases around $6-$7/share.

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Oct 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%
Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025
TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains
Merger Arbitrage and Activist Investor Developments: FONR, MYX:AX, STAA, and EM Under the Spotlight

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials

On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%

Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares.
On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1.

Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Step-up confirmed, lag observed. Legal certainty of a 25bp step-up preceded market recognition by 3 business days, creating a clean pricing-latency window in an Asian SLB.
Likely cause, vendor latency. Manual data vendor updates for sukuk profit-rate and SLB step-up fields likely delayed screens, as previously referenced.
Valuation uplift, observed move. At a 5% discount rate, the 25bp step-up was worth about 36bps, the market acted slowly and repriced higher with a 49bp reaction.

TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains

Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.
Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.
Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.

Merger Arbitrage and Activist Investor Developments: FONR, MYX:AX, STAA, and EM Under the Spotlight

FONAR received a non-binding takeover bid at $17.25/share from a consortium led by its CEO/chairman, with a 7% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s Nextstellis approved for Australia’s PBS, potentially weakening Cosette’s argument in their ongoing trial.
Smart Share Global’s management rejected Hillhouse’s higher $1.77/ADS offer, opting for a $1.25/ADS management buyout.

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Oct 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside
Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share
Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG
Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.
Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals
A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea
Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative.
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85.

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG

By Venkata D Ravi Kumar Dasari, CFA

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.

Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals

The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share. Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

The reason why the president’s office is considering temporarily easing bank–industry separation is to facilitate funding for the 150T won National Growth Fund.
Samsung and SK may form bank-backed JVs to fund AI semis, HBM, and data center projects, enabling flexible capital deployment across the AI semiconductor ecosystem.
Chaebol holdings with direct AI exposure could gain smoother access to big-ticket funding, potentially sparking continued aggressive short-term flows around Samsung and SK holdings post-Chuseok.

Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)

By Richard Howe

On October 1, 2025, Corteva Biosciences (CTVA) announced that it plans to break up into two public companies.
The logic behind the spin-off announcement is that the SpinCo has higher margins and better growth potential.
For example, the SpinCo has grown EBITDA at a 16% CAGR since 2020 and has a 26% EBITDA margin.

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Oct 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)‘s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don’t short the eve of earnings.
Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK) trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Seven West Media (SWM AU)‘s, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), and Spindex Industries (SPE SP).
Key updates/news took place on ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?
Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans
Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?

As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples.

Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans

On 1 October, it was reported in the local media that Hahn & Co (is acquiring the management rights of SK D&D Co Ltd (210980 KS).
This tender offer is not likely to be successful. Less than 1/3 of the 6.96 million shares that are up for tender offer could be sold by the existing shareholders.
We believe that the majority of the remaining investors in SK D&D want higher tender offer price.

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

By Gaudenz Schneider

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.
Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

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Oct 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?
Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Hope and Despair as the MBO Close Extended
LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows
Sammaan Capital: Is Abu Dhabi’s $1.06 Billion Bet the Start of a New Era?
I-Net Corp (9600 JP): ORIX Corp (8591 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY2,530
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Plummets, Rebounds, Activist Rebuts, KeePer Lab Holds, MBO Extends
Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP): Daiseki (9793 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,850
FONAR Privatization Proposal: 13% Spread, Potential Price Increase, and Strategic Family Control
Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Acquisitions, Tender Offers, and More

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4.
Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling.

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking.
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of “certain office space” at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Hope and Despair as the MBO Close Extended

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced that the close of the MBO offer period has been extended from 2 to 17 October. There are two key takeaways from the announcement.
First, KeePer has not yet tendered its shares, despite providing an irrevocable. Second, the non-KeePer acceptances have increased from 6,108,200 shares on September 18 to 6,598,149 shares on October 2.
The chances that KeePer accepts the Effissimo offer have increased. However, the current non-KeePer acceptances of the MBO make it highly challenging for Effissimo to succeed. Take profits.

LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.
The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

Sammaan Capital: Is Abu Dhabi’s $1.06 Billion Bet the Start of a New Era?

Sammaan Capital’s Board approved a preferential issue to Avenir Investment RSC Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants.
The strategic inflow from the well-capitalized, sovereign-linked IHC provides a massive de-risking event, validates Sammaan’s new-book strategy, and signals a powerful new stream of capital flows into Indian HFC/NBFC space.
The scale, strategic nature, and pricing of the deal position Sammaan for a significant re-rating, shifting the investment thesis from asset quality clean-up to funded growth.

I-Net Corp (9600 JP): ORIX Corp (8591 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY2,530

I Net Corp (9600 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Orix Corp (8591 JP) at JPY2,530, a 53.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
Despite the high required minority tendering rate, an attractive offer facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Plummets, Rebounds, Activist Rebuts, KeePer Lab Holds, MBO Extends

On 25 September, with the stock trading just below Effissimo’s terms, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board came out AGAINST the Effissimo proposal 66% higher than the MBO terms.
The fine print said that the Soft99 deal had enough shares to get over the line assuming Keeper Labs tendered according to agreement due to Board Support. Shares plummeted.
Effissimo issued a stunning rebuttal which showed Board incompetence/negligence, possible breach of fiduciary duty. Today, MBO Bidco extended, the stock popped, but details are key.

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP): Daiseki (9793 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,850

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP) at JPY1,850, a 54.3% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents a three-year high.
The low required minority tendering rate facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

FONAR Privatization Proposal: 13% Spread, Potential Price Increase, and Strategic Family Control

FONAR’s privatization offer at $17.25/share by controlling shareholders has a 13% spread, with potential for a price increase.
The company, trading at 5x EBITDA, holds $54m net cash, covering a significant portion of the buyout cost.
FONAR’s core diagnostic centers generate 92% of revenue; the unprofitable MRI manufacturing segment is operationally integrated.

Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Acquisitions, Tender Offers, and More

Chorus Aviation is repurchasing 8% of shares at C$23.00–C$25.00, offering C$45 risk-free upside; tender expires November 10.
STAAR Surgical’s largest shareholder opposes Alcon’s $28/share acquisition, potentially forcing a higher bid before October 23 meeting.
Forian’s $2.10/share go-private proposal by a founder-led consortium is under review, with shares trading at offer price.

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Oct 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad
LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset
GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life
RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad

JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…

LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset

LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.

GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life

The GST Council’s decision to exempt all individual life and health insurance premiums from GST (0% vs. 18% earlier), effective September 22, 2025, is a landmark affordability move.
The immediate drop in premiums for products like term and ULIPs is expected to drive a significant surge in demand, though insurers like ICICI Prudential will lose ITC on expenses.
While the volume boost from higher affordability is a major long-term catalyst, immediate margin compression from ITC loss on commissions will require operational efficiency and pricing recalibration for ICICI Prudential.

RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?

RateGain Travel Technologies has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire US-based, AI-powered travel marketing platform Sojern for an upfront consideration of $250 million.
The acquisition is a bold move to create a scaled, AI-first digital marketing and distribution platform, significantly boosting RateGain’s MarTech business and nearly tripling its revenue/EBITDA run-rate (pre-synergies).
The strategic upside of owning the full guest acquisition-to-retention cycle justifies the blended financing structure and the integration risk of two large, geographically dispersed travel tech companies.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.

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Oct 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares
StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.
Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade
Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float
Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy
Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush
Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive
Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares

There is an end of a lock-up period for 22.1 million shares (34% of outstanding shares) for Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) starting 5 October 2025.
This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
Doosan Robotics’ valuation multiples remain extremely high. We remain BEARISH on Doosan Robotics.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.

Melco International Development (200 HK) is now trading at a premium to NAV for the first time since announcing a one-for-two rights issue.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade

By Sanghyun Park

Fiduciary duty expansion gains teeth once the third-stage treasury cancellation passes—setting up Class A prefs as prime re-rating, discount-compression plays in local flows.
Fiduciary duty expansion gives Class A prefs new legal backing, making them standout re-rating plays with discount-compression potential, unlike Class B with built-in dividend protections.
Hyundai Motor 1P vs 2PB offers a tight but tradable setup, while CJ Corp and AmoreH show wider A/B gaps, even after adjusting convertible premiums.

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.

Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy

Television broadcaster and publisher Seven West Media (SWM AU) has entered into a Scheme with radio network play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).
SXL will issue 0.1552 new shares for every SWM. Should the Scheme get up, SXL will hold 50.1% of the combined entity and SWM the remainder.
Kerry Stokes backed SGH Limited (SGH AU) will hold ~20% in the merged entity. But not all shareholders are on board with the Offer. Trading through terms.

Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.
Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.
Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained >+1% premium for borrow tightening.

Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

DuPont (DD) is set to spin off 100% of its Electronics business, Qnity (Q), in early November.
Qnity is positioned to grow in line with the semiconductor industry, which is expected to expand at a mid-single-digit CAGR.
A large portion of its portfolio consists of consumable products, supporting strong profitability with EBITDA margins around 30% (inclusive of ~$100 million in public company costs).

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

By Gaudenz Schneider

Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.

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Sep 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo
Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?
Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?
Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)
KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts.
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.

Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?

The increased purchase of Mirae Asset Life Insurance shares by the Mirae Asset Group companies could be a PRELUDE to a potential voluntary delisting of Mirae Asset Life Insurance.
We believe that there is a relatively reasonable probability of the Mirae Asset Group taking Mirae Asset Life Insurance private in the next 1-2 years.
Mirae Asset Life Insurance is trading at only 0.4x P/B. Treasury shares represent 26.3% of its total outstanding shares.

Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?

OneSource Specialty Pharma has approved a Composite Scheme of Arrangement to acquire Steriscience’s EuropeanCDMO and Brooks Steriscience’s Indian anti-infective assets.
The transaction adds approximately $107 million in projected FY27 revenue, significantly diversifying the portfolio, reducing single-site risk, raising the consolidated FY28 revenue outlook to over $500 million.
While the acquisition multiples appear steep for subscale assets, if management successfully delivers on ambitious growth targets, the transaction could position OneSource among the most competitive players in CDMO landspace.

Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)

By Richard Howe

This week, I published a deep dive into Sony’s upcoming spin-off of Sony Financial (SFGI/8729).
I will be watching the spin-off closely and hoping for selling pressure.
KBR, Inc. (KBR) announced on September 24, 2025 that it plans to spin off its Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment into a separate publicly traded company.

KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26