Event-Driven Archives | Page 9 of 186 | Smartkarma

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
• Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

• Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before. 
• The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion. 
• That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead. 

• PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
• December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
• Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

• ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, holds 24.6%. Two senior management – past & present – hold a further 20.2%. 
• ANE’s share price is up 29% YTD, but 27% adrift of its November 2021 IPO price. 

• Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
• Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says “fair & reasonable“.

• ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) is on a halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
• I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.
• I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.

• Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) has aggressively built a 19.93% position in FleetPartners (FPR AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, paying up to $3.10/share for a ~15% stake.
• Earlier this year, Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners privatised Sg Fleet (SGF AU), one of FleetPartners key competitors.
• MMC said it has no current intention to acquire control or a make a takeover offer. Mmm. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

• The Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) IE considers Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)’s NZ$1.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.07 to A$1.43 valuation range. 
• Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is attractive and no competing proposal has emerged.
• The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.  

• It was reported in Seoul Economic Daily today that EQT Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake (31.4%) in Douzone Bizon (012510 KS).
• A 31.4% stake of Douzone is now worth  0.91 trillion won (with no premium or discount). 
• Douzone’s chairman Kim has demanded up to twice the market cap of the company for the management rights premium. 

• The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
• At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

• On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an open letter questioning the rationale for the Mandom Corp (4917 JP) Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. 
• Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki’s value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki’s criticisms are valid, while others are not.
• CVC’s initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.

• Down 18% in the past month, fundamentals for AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK), one of China’s leading aviation/defense plays, still appear demanding.
• Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• As discussed in May this year, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC World (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
• Reportedly Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares figures released by the SET illustrated a dramatic downward swing in KTC’s pledged shares in June versus May. 
• SET’s updated list of securities pledged – as at 29th August – shows pledged shares in KTC ticking up. But so has KTC’s share price, slowly but surely.

• On 17 September, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced the results of the tender offer.
• Its two largest shareholders (Korea Development Bank – KDB and Korea Ocean Business Corp – KOBC) both participated in the tender offer.
• With end of the tender offer, we believe there could be a renewed focus on the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on HMM. 

• Faraday Future to spin-off its “Crypto Flywheel” / C10 Treasury assets into a separate entity (CXC10), enabling independent fundraising and clearer strategic focus.
• Post separation, Faraday Future remains an EV story, focused on vehicle development, production milestones, and shared mobility initiatives.
• The separation of the volatile, high-risk crypto assets from the EV business will reduce investor confusion and may uplift valuation by removing any conglomerate discount.

• Broadwood Partners opposes Alcon’s $28/share offer for STAAR, citing opportunistic timing and a flawed sale process.
• Alcon seeks STAAR to fill a portfolio gap in phakic intraocular lenses, potentially enhancing US market penetration.
• STAAR’s China sales decline attributed to inventory issues, with management predicting recovery by H2 2025.

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
• However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 

• In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure. 
• The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
• Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.

• SKT’s foreign stake drop sparked early divergence vs KT—long SKT/short KT paying off, though KT’s hacking risk muddies how much is pure event-driven.
• This isn’t an add/delete, just a weight bump—flows lag until announcement. Aug ’20 SKT doubling factor is the cleanest comp for today’s setup.
• SKT vs KT spread widened post-screening; SKT outperformed 12%. Weight bumps lag vs ins/outs, so expect similar flow—timing long-short entry matters to avoid bleeding carry.

• Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465. 
• The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
• Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders. 

• Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
• The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
• There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

• On 12 September, Shenyang SASAC increased its Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60. The IFA opines it is fair and reasonable.
• The revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders. However, the IFA analysis is flawed, and the revised offer is light.
• While the 21 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge. 

• On 16 September, it was reported in the local media that SK Innovation’s subsidiary SK Geo Centric plans to sell its entire 35% stake in the Sinopec-SK Petrochem JV.
• The transaction is expected to be priced closed to its book value of about 819 billion won. Sinopec is a leading potential buyer. 
• From 2020 to 2024, SK Geo Centric generated cumulative operating profit of 695 billion won, accounting for 12.7% of SK Innovation’s cumulative operating profit in this period. 

• Kraft Heinz will separate into two independent publicly-traded companies via a tax-free spin-off  expected to close in H2 2026
• The two entities : Global Taste Elevation Co. focusing on sauces, spreads, seasonings, shelf-stable meals and North American Grocery Co.  centered on staples sold in North America
• The move is designed to disentangle distinct brand portfolios, so each can pursue clearer growth, margin and capital-allocation strategies.

• Ørsted launches a large, DKK 60bn, fully underwritten rights issue, backed by the Danish State, to repair funding after U.S. disruptions and restore balance-sheet flexibility. Dilution is ~68%.
• Scale is akin to an IPO placing by market volume, with substantial dilution for non-participants. Fully underwritten and state-backed, likely strong institutional take-up; expect volatility into allocation and listing.
• Post-Announcement, shares reset lower yet still trade well above theoretical value, leaving mispricing pockets. Expect active flow, volatility through subscription, and potential listing-day pressure.

• Reportedly, heavy earthmoving equipment play Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) is in the crosshairs.  
• Local media are indicating that Emeco has been testing the water on possible domestic suitors, and this has spurred interest from overseas. 
• The share price is up 27% YTD and 58% over the past year, and currently trading around a four-year high. 

• KRX provides broad official market data, but no consensus estimates. FnGuide aggregates broker reports, standardizes them, and delivers actionable consensus numbers for practical trading use.
• FnGuide’s consensus data is solid and well-structured for screening, though coverage is limited to ~300–400 stocks, which still aligns with the practical trading universe.
• FnGuide’s paid services require Korean residency or a corporate workaround, making access tough for overseas traders; realistically, we can rely on their free sites for financials, consensus, and basic screening.

• On the 26th August, rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a pretty tragic 86.49% discount to NAV.
• On the 12th September, the Offeror bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV.
• The Composite Document’s now out, with a H-share class meeting on the 21st October. The IFA (Gram Capital) says “fair & reasonable”. To be expected. 

• Argos’s strategic value remains underappreciated, despite JD.com walking away. A sale or internal turnaround could unlock up to £2 billion in value based on realistic, post-tax synergy assumptions.
• Sainsbury acquired Argos for £1.4 billion in 2016, aiming for multichannel scale. While digital integration succeeded, long-term profit delivery has lagged — offering a compelling restructuring opportunity today.
• My event-driven SOTP model shows 10–25% share price upside, with optionality from renewed M&A interest, internal margin improvement, or capital allocation catalysts including divestment or spin-off.

• Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
• Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
• Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.

• On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
• The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.  
• The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid. 

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
• SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
• On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
• The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

• Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV. 
• Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground. 
• The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV. 

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we review the global focus on critical minerals, how ASEAN’s digital economy can grow amidst political uncertainty, and how IT services have fared with AI
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• “Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
• Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• Continental (XTRA: CON) is set to spin off its automotive business, Aumovio, on September 18, 2025.
• The business, which has historically operated with low margins and modest growth, is currently undergoing a turnaround.
• I estimate Aumovio’s fair value at approximately €56 per share and believe the stock could present an attractive opportunity if it trades down meaningfully following the spin-off.

• Next week, Continental (CON) will spin off its auto parts business, Aumovio, as a public company.
• The first day of regular trading will be September 18, 2025. Shareholders will receive one share of Aumovio for every two shares of Continental.

• Aumovio is in the midst of a turnaround, and I was initially skeptical of managements rosy guidance.

• Lee slammed NPS’s logic, questioning its local equity cuts; Friday, the fund responded with ₩186.3bn net KOSPI buys — biggest since his inauguration.
• NPS sat out September’s rally, so Friday’s ₩186bn KOSPI buy looks like a reactive pivot to Lee’s comments, sparking local desks’ chatter and weekend buzz.
• KOSPI mid-caps with big NPS stakes (~5%+) could see short-term buying, as reactive flows follow Presidential Office chatter, with mid-caps below KRW 5tn offering the biggest price impact.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandom Corp (4917 JP) and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). Also, Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

• Following shareholder approval, there’ll be an index DELetion for Brickworks (BKW AU), and an index UPweight for Soul Patts (SOL AU). BKW’s last day of trading is the 15th September. 
• Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)‘s Offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). That leaves this to be done by Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), unopposed.
• After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan asserts control of News Corp Class B (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).

• Shenyang SASAC increased its Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60 per H Share, a 40.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The revised offer has been declared final. The revised terms signal that at least one of the substantial H shareholders would not accept the previous offer.
• While the revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders, the terms remain light. Therefore, there remains a risk around the 90% minimum acceptance condition. 

• Kiri Industries has signed a deal to sell its 37.6% stake in DyStar Global to Zhejiang Longsheng for US$697 million (~INR 5,800 crore), concluding a decade-long Singapore court battle.
• The payout is multiple times Kiri’s current market cap and marks one of the strongest minority shareholder wins globally.
• The DyStar exit removes litigation overhang and hands Kiri a war chest. Now, execution of the copper and fertilizer project will define the future of the company.

• Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK) (CJ), which is principally engaged in the distribution of consumer electronic products, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH) holds ~60.13% of the shares outstanding. And 100% of the preference shares (76.7% of shares out). 
• This week, a final judgement, concerning monies owed, was ruled in CJ’s favour. The sum involved is ~30% of CJ’s market cap. 

• Ecopro’s PRS: KRW 700bn, 2-year, BM shares underlying, 5.85% coupon; SK’s July PRS was bigger (KRW 1.4tn, 3-year, 4.3%), same payoff mechanics.
• Watch for hedge-flow side trades: Ecopro’s KRW 700bn PRS on BM shares should mirror SKI’s setup, likely triggering a noticeable pop when the primary buyer hedges.
• PRS likely hits Sept 24–25; Mirae Asset leads. Be ready to catch flow-driven whipsaws from local institutions around execution.

• Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.
• Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.
• Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.

• Forian (FORA) received a $2.10/share go-private proposal from a founder-led consortium controlling 63% of the company.
• Lifeway Foods (LWAY) trades 20% above Danone’s previous offer, with NDA agreement expiry on September 15.
• Currency Exchange International (CURN) Q3 results show 4% EBITDA growth, with management considering distributing $12.8m cash to shareholders.

• On 10 September, the founding Nishimura family, the PE Firm CVC, and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) agreed that the first two could take over the latter at 4.9x Mar28 EBITDA.
• A cocktail napkin calculation of expected leverage suggests the equity check is buying this at 5x average Mar27-28 free cash flow. That’s cheap for a growing company.
• The register is open enough to cause problems but not open enough to allow a clean hostile bid by a strategic. But still open enough for someone to have fun.

• Property management play Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Evergrande (3333 HK) controls 51.71%. This suspension is either a precursor to a Scheme; or (more likely) cash-strapped Evergrande is exiting, potentially triggering an unconditional MGO. 
• Evergrande, currently in liquidation, was delisted from the HKEx on the 25th August 2025 after failing to fulfil HKEx resumption guidance. The delisting was arguably symbolic, but remains a milestone.

• Back on the 3rd July 2025, Jilin Province Trust must a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.23x P/B!!) for troubled rural commercial bank Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK). 
• Shares have been suspended since 12th March. Jilin Jiutai have yet to publish their 2024 annual results. It’s doubtful shares will resume trading. Ever. 
• The Composite Doc Booklet is now out, with a H-share class meeting on the 24th October, the same day as the first close. The IFA (Gram) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) at JPY480, a 44.1% premium to the last close.
• While the offer implies a P/B of 0.54x, it is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges. 
• Nevertheless, the offer is susceptible to a bump as it is far from a knockout bid, and Fuji Oil previously had activists on the register.  

• Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
• The trading halt likely relates to Evergrande (3333 HK) liquidators’ efforts to sell Evergrande Group’s majority interest in Evergrande Services.
• The sale is likely to trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer. I estimate the potential offer price to be around HK$1.08 per share, a 17.8% premium to the last close.

• On 11 Sep 2025 after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced a takeunder of Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) in MBO form. 
• Two major holders with 37% roll their stakes into new ownership in Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) and another 17+% probably just fall in line.
• Foreigners hold a lot. They may not like the takeunder. It is not clear who would buy this if Hakuhodo does not, or whether it is worth the hassle.

• In Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Offer Expected As Parent (Likely) Exits., I speculated on the outcome of Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS)’s suspension due to the Takeovers Code. 
• EPS has now announced that the liquidators for Evergrande (3333 HK) have been fielding non-binding Offers for Evergrande’s 51.016% stake in EPS. Final proposals are expected to be submitted by November.
• With a view to maximizing proceeds, the liquidators will ideally seek a sole bidder, leading to a change of control. And an unconditional MGO.  Shares resume trading this morning.

• DB Hitek announced a detailed plan for its 4.16 million treasury shares utilization (9.4% of outstanding shares), including shares cancellation, issuance of exchangeable bonds, and equity compensation for its employees. 
• There will be 2.22 million treasury shares that will be used in the issuance of EBs. This represents 54% of the total treasury shares and 5% of outstanding shares.
• The company also plans to cancel 1.486 million treasury shares (representing 35.7% of treasury shares and 3.3% of outstanding shares). 

• Tega Industries has announced its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Molycop at a USD 1.48 billion enterprise value, in consortium with Apollo Funds.
• The deal is nearly 10x Tega’s size, and will redefine its global positioning across the mining consumables and equipment value chain.
• Integration risks loom large, but if executed well, this move transforms Tega from a niche Indian export champion into a global leader in mineral processing solutions.

• Asian Energy Services (AOS IN) has received board approval for the merger of  promoter entity Oilmax Energy, with share swap ratio: 117 shares of AESL for 10 shares of Oilmax.
• The merger is a strategic move to consolidate OEPL’s asset ownership, including producing oil and gas fields, with AESL’s execution and services capabilities.
• The valuation of the parent company is looking costlier, and a reduction in promoter stake makes things skeptical in transaction.

• After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan is set to take control of News Corp (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).
• Preceding my comments on News Corp and 62%-held REA Group Ltd (REA AU) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
• The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  

• On the 29th August, Mixi (2121 JP) cleared 50% of the voting power in PointsBet (PBH AU). It’s Offer was automatically extended, and will now close on the 12th September.
• Mixi has 51.59%. betr Entertainment (BBT AU) said it holds 20.45%, plus 6.5% in the IAF, the instructions for which can be withdrawn. betr said it won’t accept Mixi’s Offer.
• Mixi adds betr will have no PBH board representation “either now or in the future”; and betr will continue to be a clear competitor. Additionally, PBH questions betr’s buyback funding,

• Kim Jun-nyun (chairman of Sammok S-Form (018310 KS)) is conducting a tender offer of 1.4 million shares (9.52% stake) in Sammok S-Form through affiliates of the company.
• We believe that this tender offer signals one step closer to Chairman Kim Jun-Nyun and related parties eventually taking the company private.
• The company’s net cash is nearly 73% of its market cap. The company is trading at dirt cheap valuation (EV/EBITDA of 0.6x).

• KRW 5T fund—the public-participation slice of the KRW 35T joint vehicle—is the main conduit for flows into local equities.
• The KRW 150T policy fund launches December, but pre-emptive flows could hit early, led by the KRW 5T ETF-heavy, retail-accessible Public Participation Fund.
• The KRW 5T Public Participation Fund, ETF-heavy and thematic in AI, semis, Mobility, and Biotech, could drive concentrated, short-term rallies; position early ahead of year-end flows.

• AT&T paid $22.7 billion for Spectrum from SATS, a third of their portfolio
• Yummy Century Stocks discusses the significance of the Spectrum sale and the value trapped in SATS and DISH
• Yummy Century Stocks estimated the value of the Spectrum to be around $8 billion, slightly higher than what AT&T paid

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• All regulatory approvals secured; Deliveroo’s 180p/share takeover by DoorDash now awaits only procedural court steps. Sanction hearing is scheduled for 30 September; scheme effective date is 2 October.
• With a 1p spread and 179p entry, the deal offers ~8.9% annualised return by early October. Early entrants at 170.8p continue to realise strong IRRs above 12%.
• Risk is minimal with near-unanimous shareholder backing and no regulatory obstacles remaining. Administrative timing is the only variable; monitoring court scheduling and filing is key to arbitrage efficiency.

• On 3 July, Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70. IFA opines it is fair and reasonable. 
• The IFA analysis is flawed, and the offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, the offer represents the best-case scenario for minorities, as the timeline for resuming trading remains uncertain.
• While the 24 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge.

• Forian received a $2.10/share go-private proposal from a consortium controlling 63% of the company; no premium offered.
• The company has a strong cash position, positive cash flow, and benefits from AI era tailwinds, suggesting limited downside.
• The two-step merger structure aims for 90% ownership, bypassing lengthy proxy processes and minimizing minority shareholder resistance.

• The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
• Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
• The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.

• On 5 September, Shenge increased its minimum scheme consideration for Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) to A$0.443, a 23% premium to the previous minimum cash consideration.
• The IE considers the offer fair and reasonable. The key conditions are approval from the Fair Competition Commission of Tanzania and shareholder approval (vote scheduled for 16 September).
• This is a done deal, as Tanzania approval and the vote are low-risk. At the last close and for a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.5%/147%.  

• Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears. 
• The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. 
• A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines “as deposits are exhausted”.

• HHI–Mipo spread holds 3–4%; cancellation risk minimal. Market views HHI as the cleaner MASGA play vs. Mipo, keeping the spread sticky and unlikely to tighten soon.
• Potential kicker for widening comes from passive inflows when Mipo halts, as HHI gains weight in Global Standard vs. Mipo’s Small Cap.
• HHI may see ~4x DTV passive inflow as it absorbs Mipo; pre-announcement flows could start late October, potentially widening the swap spread ahead of the Nov 27 halt.

• Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.
• Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.
• Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.

• BMPS has secured control of Mediobanca following improved terms; the offer will briefly reopen in mid-September. Market pricing has tightened the spread, reflecting convergence momentum into settlement and governance changes.
• Acceptance dynamics likely favor incremental tenders during the re-open window as control clarity rises and strategy signals firm. Catalysts cluster around board composition, formal results notices, and subsequent settlement milestones.
• For risk-arb, positioning now focuses on convergence mechanics and disciplined hedging around headlines; sensitivity to bidder shares remains material while post-offer pathways may include on-market top-ups and medium-term threshold considerations.