india Archives | Page 22 of 153 | Smartkarma

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

By Brian Freitas

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.

Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

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May 11

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

By Sankalp Singh

Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

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May 10

Daily Brief India: Aadhar Housing Finance, Canara Robeco AMC, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon
Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

By Sumeet Singh

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Canara Robeco AMC (570515Z IN) is looking to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, JM Fin and SBI Caps.
Canara Robeco is an asset management company engaged in managing mutual funds and providing investment advice on Indian equities to Robeco Hong Kong Limited, a member of the Promoter Group.
According to CRISIL, it is India’s second oldest asset management company.

NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

By Nico Rosti

In our previous NIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.

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May 09

Daily Brief India: Siemens Ltd, Eicher Motors, Panache Digilife, Niva Bupa Health Insurance and more

In today’s briefing:

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?
Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update
Siemens Energy India Ltd: Value Unlocking, Demerger
Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis
Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?

Post-Demerger, Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) continues with Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility, focusing on core segments like automation, electrification, and rail transport.
The company is getting significant orders in each segment with strong tailwind across all segment.
Siemens Limited’s remaining business is projected to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by strong order backlogs and improved margins.

Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interact with local business owners and our channels in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir with an objective to understand the current sentiment on the ground.
Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital, remains strategically vital in the current conflict as a military hub and political flashpoint between India and Pakistan.
Local business owners are hopeful that the escalating conflict and the media attention surrounding it will ease by the 10th of May.

Siemens Energy India Ltd: Value Unlocking, Demerger

Siemens is demerging its Energy business into SEIL, focusing on energy solutions and doubling transmission capacity with a INR 3.6 billion investment over 2–3 years.
SEIL’s energy transition initiatives drive growth, with a 29.9% YoY increase in orders. Siemens Ltd.’s Digital Industries faced headwinds but remains optimistic about turnover.
The demerger creates two independent growth engines, with Siemens Ltd. investing ₹4 billion in Smart Infrastructure, positioning both entities for strong future growth.

Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Panache DigiLife Limited is an ICT & IoT devices design, manufacturing, distribution and services company.
Company’s accounting policy for non-provisioning of old receivables seems to be aggressive. Poor capital allocation resulted in fragile financial health.
Concentration risk with sales from single customer accounting for 55% of revenue to be major areas of concern.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock

Niva Bupa Health Insurance (1226871D IN) (Niva Bupa) raised around US$260m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Niva Bupa is a health insurance firm. Its portfolio consists of health (including retail and group), personal accident, and travel insurance.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics, possible placement and updates since our last note.

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May 08

Daily Brief India: Swiggy, Urban Company, Siemens Ltd, Indusind Bank, Canara HSBC Life Insurance, HP Adhesives, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Coal India Ltd, Apl Apollo Tubes and more

In today’s briefing:

Swiggy IPO Lockup – US$7.9bn Lockup Release
Urban Company Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Event Driven: Deep Dive into Siemens Limited’s Energy Demerger
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle
Canara HSBC Life Insurance Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Business Breakdown: HP Adhesives- Building a Brand or Battling Giants
CG Power: Strong Execution, Strategic Expansion, and Long-Term Growth Visibility
Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging
APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations

Swiggy IPO Lockup – US$7.9bn Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Urban Company Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Urban Company (URBAN IN) (UCL) is looking to raise about US$223m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JM Fin.
UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
As of Dec 24, it operated in 59 cities across India and overseas.

Event Driven: Deep Dive into Siemens Limited’s Energy Demerger

Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) is spinning off its Energy Business into Siemens Energy India Limited (SEIL), creating two independent entities for focused growth and unlocking shareholder value.
Post-Demerger, SEIL is well-positioned in the Indian energy sector, benefiting from decarbonization initiatives, capital investments, and strong export potential in the coming years.
The remaining Siemens Limited will concentrate on technology sectors like Industry, Infrastructure, and Mobility, maintaining its strong business profile and order backlog, ensuring continued growth post-demerger.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle

By Brian Freitas

With the review period complete, there could be two changes for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) are high probability inclusions while Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Nestle India (NEST IN) are high probability deletions.
Indusind Bank (IIB IN) is also a potential NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) deletion in September and there will be continued pressure on the stock.

Canara HSBC Life Insurance Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Canara HSBC Life Insurance (2908709Z IJ) is looking to raise about US$354m in its upcoming India IPO with bookrunners HSBC, JM Fin, Motilal, BNP Paribas and SBI Caps.
Canara HSBC Life Insurance is a private life insurer in India and promoted by Canara Bank and HSBC Insurance (Asia-Pacific) Holdings Limited, a member of the HSBC group.
According to CRISIL, it was ranked second amongst public sector bank-led life insurers in India based on the number of lives covered for FY24.

Business Breakdown: HP Adhesives- Building a Brand or Battling Giants

HP Adhesives has expanded its product portfolio with high-growth categories like silicone sealants and diversified into high-margin niches such as epoxy putties, strengthening its market position.
The company’s strategic distribution expansion, along with product innovation, aligns well with the growing demand in the Indian adhesives market, positioning HPAL for sustainable growth across various sectors.
While facing challenges like raw material price volatility and competition from market leaders, HPAL’s strong capacity expansion and focus on high-margin products indicate significant potential for long-term value creation.

CG Power: Strong Execution, Strategic Expansion, and Long-Term Growth Visibility

Consolidated revenue grew 23% YoY to Rs9,999 crore; PBT margin at 13.6%; order backlog rose 66%, supported by broad-based growth across key segments.
Capacity expansions in transformers and semiconductors, export growth initiatives, and investments in consumer products and railway systems are key strategic priorities over FY26–FY28.
Trading at 73–77x FY26E P/E; management targets sustained growth, high ROCE, and diversification, supporting a long-term compounding opportunity.

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.
FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.
Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.

APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations

Q4 FY25 performance was strong with volumes up 25% YoY, EBITDA up 48% YoY, and net profit up 72% YoY; EBITDA per ton improved to Rs4,864 (+18%YoY).
Management targets ~20% volume growth and ~Rs5,000/ton EBITDA for FY26, with capex of Rs1,500 crore over three years to expand capacity from 4.5 to 6.8mt.
EPS is projected to grow ~55% in FY26 and 20%+ in FY27; stock trades at ~39x FY26E and ~33x FY27E earnings, supported by strong internal cash generation and low leverage.

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May 07

Daily Brief India: Adani Power, Sagility India, Nuvoco Vistas , Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Associated Alcohol & Breweries, JSW Steel Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Adani Power: Navigating Challenges
Sagility India IPO Lockup – US$1.5bn Lockup Release; PE Promoter Will Have to Trim for Free-Float
Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion
Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
Business Breakdown: Associated Alcohols- The Spirit of Bold Expansion
JSW Steel–BPSL Acquisition: Court Verdict, Strategic Importance, and Investment Implications

Adani Power: Navigating Challenges

Adani Power delivered strong FY25 earnings and plans to expand capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30 through brownfield, greenfield, and acquisition-driven growth.
Godda, Jharkhand (110km from Bangladesh) project supports high realisations, but Bangladesh receivable buildup (~USD 900 million) remains a working capital risk, with gradual collections ongoing.
Adani Power offers strong margins, improving ROCE, and trades at ~16.6× FY25 P/E.

Sagility India IPO Lockup – US$1.5bn Lockup Release; PE Promoter Will Have to Trim for Free-Float

Sagility India (2058883D IN) (Sagility) raised around US$250m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Sagility is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers (U.S. health insurance companies), and Providers (primarily hospitals, physicians, and diagnostic and medical devices companies).
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics, possible placement and updates since our last note.

Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion

Nuvoco reported improved volumes, margins, and deleveraging in FY25, with continued focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency.
The Vadraj Cement acquisition expands capacity to 31 MTPA, diversifying regional exposure and strengthening presence in Gujarat and Maharashtra – west region.
Valuations are reasonable at ~16x FY27E earnings and ~Rs5,100/ton EV/ton, but upside depends on timely integration and ramp-up of new assets.

Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y.
Although cargo volume growth underperformed expectations, revenue rose 14% in line with projections, while the 16% EBITDA increase exceeded guidance.
APSEZ generated slightly positive FCF, and net adjusted leverage was stable at an acceptable 2.8x.

Business Breakdown: Associated Alcohols- The Spirit of Bold Expansion

AABL is entering premium segments with new products like gin, whisky, and tequila marking a shift from mass-market to value-added growth.
This matters as it boosts margin potential and strengthens brand equity amid rising premium liquor demand.
Our view shifts positively on AABL’s long-term strategy, despite near-term risks in regulation and corporate governance.

JSW Steel–BPSL Acquisition: Court Verdict, Strategic Importance, and Investment Implications

Supreme Court reinstated strict NCLT terms on May 2, 2025, requiring JSW to fully comply or risk BPSL liquidation; NCLAT relaxations were overturned.
BPSL contributes ~12% of JSW’s capacity and ~10% of EBITDA, with strong operational synergy potential, strategic location, and upcoming captive iron ore integration.
While management is yet to formally decide, JSW is likely to comply; the ~6% correction offers a strong long-term opportunity as BPSL integration strengthens margins.

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May 06

Daily Brief India: Gravita India, Ather Energy, Mahindra & Mahindra, Shilchar Technologies and more

In today’s briefing:

Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations
Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.

Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations

Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.

Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?

By Devi Subhakesan

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.

Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.

Shilchar achieved full capacity utilization ahead of FY26 guidance, delivering record quarterly and annual profitability.
The early ramp-up boosts earnings visibility, positioning Shilchar to benefit from strong domestic and export transformer demand.
Near-Term growth outlook strengthens with a INR 750–800 crore revenue guidance for FY26, while medium-term capex plans are under evaluation.

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May 05

Daily Brief India: JSW Infrastructure, Afcons Infrastructure Limited and more

In today’s briefing:

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

By Dimitris Ioannidis

AFCONS debuted on the NSE on 4 November 2024. As of 2 May 2025, the price was 420 INR resulting in a market cap of ~$1.8bn.
AFCONS is forecasted to be added to Global-F at the June 2025 review with a free float of 31.7% following the 3-month lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
AFCONS is forecasted to experience a free float increase in Global-M from 35% to 45% at the August 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry of the pre-IPO shareholders.

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May 04

Daily Brief India: Greaves Cotton and more

In today’s briefing:

Greaves Cotton Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification Strategy Drives Strong Performance & Profitability

Greaves Cotton Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification Strategy Drives Strong Performance & Profitability

Greaves Cotton (GRV IN) reported impressive Q4 and FY25 results, marking a 93% YoY increase in EBITDA and strong revenue growth across key sectors, especially electric mobility.
The company’s transformation through diversification into high-margin segments, including EVs and non-auto applications, has improved profitability, solidifying its position for long-term growth.
With strong leadership, technological advancements, and a clear 2030 growth vision, Greaves Cotton is well-poised to thrive in emerging markets, especially EV and CNG segments.

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May 03

Daily Brief India: JSW Steel Ltd, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank Ltd, Laurus Labs, Vedanta Resources and more

In today’s briefing:

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback
Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers
Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels
Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers

Adani Enterprises’ consolidated EBITDA rose by 26% to Rs16,722 crore in FY25, supported by expansion across key infrastructure and energy businesses.
Focus areas include scaling airports, green hydrogen production, solar manufacturing, data centers, and stabilized annuity cash flows from roads.
Key risks are project execution delays, regulatory oversight, high leverage, ESG scrutiny etc.

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth