THAILAND Archives | Page 23 of 57 | Smartkarma

• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 4Q2021 results marked a turnaround in both its packaging business in glass and cans plus better performance from Big C as mobility improved during the quarter.
• The outlook for packaging looks positive and the Big C will open more outlets in 2022 plus renovating around 20 hypermarkets plus opening new formats this year.
• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains an interesting recovery play for Thailand and Vietnam, with the potential for more retail exposure there in the future. Valuations stack up versus peers.

• IVL announced completion of Oxiteno acquisition and consolidation of assets beginning April 2022 (earnings recognition 2Q22 onwards). We have a positive view on the deal given the earnings accretion 
• Strong surfactants business footprint, as post integration IVL will hold 20% of America’s total EO capacities and 25% market share of nonionic surfactants.
• We estimate the new asset to contribute US$200m to IVL’s EBITDA in 2022 (10% of IVL’s 2022E EBITDA) and increase thereafter, thanks to synergy benefits from efficient asset utilization. 

• We downgrade PSL to HOLD rating while trim target price to Bt16.0 (Previous TP:Bt21.20) derived from 1.5xPBV’22E, Asia-ex-Japan transportation sector. We believe peak point of the market upcycle
• We anticipate a slowdown in demand for dry bulk commodities trading to continue at least until 1H22, which was mainly pressured by tension between Russia-Ukraine and China city lockdown.
• Supply side in short-term will still benefit from trend of containerized cargoes and issue over port congestion, but these factors are likely to fade in 2H22

• We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless
• We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.
• We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.

• Analyst meeting came out with positive tone. Cloud and cybersecurity businesses should grow rapidly over the next few years.Current inventory stock provides 4 to 6 months buffer from Chinese lockdown 
• We believe that cloud and cybersecurity will drive earnings at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2021-24E, led sales growth at 8.6% CAGR and slightly improved margins. Management maintains strong outlook 
• We expect 1Q22E earnings at Bt201m(+6%QoQ, +6%YoY)driven QoQ by GPM expansion. We recommend accumulating shares now as earnings in 1H22 should be the lowest of the year due to seasonality.

• We reiterate our BUY rating for M with a target price of Bt61.0 based on 25xPE’22E, Asia ex-Japan consumer staple sector.
• We expect M to report net profit of Bt393m in 1Q22 (+343%YoY, -2%QoQ) driven by a positive same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) in three main brands (MK, Yayoi, and Laem Charoen Seafood) 
• We forecast earnings to bounce back to Bt2.2bn in 2022 and continue to grow at 14%CAGR(2023-24) supported by 1) solid recovery in SSSG after resuming dine-in services together with restoring 

• Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt149.Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth,resilient asset quality, and compelling valuation. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 9.5%
• Net profit will likely rise 2% YoY (+30% QoQ) in 1Q22 given higher net interest income from elevated loans and lower provisions.
• The S&P Global Rating downgrade will likely have minimal impacts on SCB’s fundamentals.

• We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Bt174. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead from improving economic recovery; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs
• Net profit will likely rise 6% YoY (+14% QoQ) in 1Q22 given higher net interest income from elevated loans and an improvement in cost to income ratio.
• We expect minimal impacts from S&P Global Rating downgrade from “BBB+” to “BBB”. 

• Riding on COVID-driven demand boom, Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) reported record high performance in 2021, which is not likely to continue in near-term.
• However, post pandemic, gloves demand is expected to improve on the back of increased glove usage from emerging markets with low gloves consumption per capita and heightened hygiene awareness.
• STGT shares have corrected 15% thus far in this year, providing a good buy on dip opportunity. Shares can be considered for the long-haul.

• We initiate coverage of KKP with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt79. Our valuation is derived from a Gordon growth model (ROE 13.5%, growth 2%),implying 1.2x PBV’22E
• Steady growth ahead on continued lending growth and a potential reduction in credit costs
• Resilient asset quality and high loan loss reserves against NPLs

• We reiterate our BUY rating for SAPPE with a target price of Bt32.0 based on 22xPE’22E,close to its five-years average trading range and average of Asia-ex Japan consumer staple sector
• SAPPE is beverage exporter with 65% of sales from oversea. In 2021, logistic cost surged to Bt341m (+251%YoY) as it provides a freight contract for distributors and pass most
• Average container freight decreased to US$8800 per 40ft box in March 2022 from it peak at US$10,000 per 40ft box in Sep 2021. We believe freight rate to continues 

• ACommerce Group (ACOM TB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
• Acommerce is an ecommerce enabler providing end-to-end and ala carte ecommerce solutions for brands in Southeast Asia (SEA). 
• Acommerce has been a key beneficiary of COVID, however, has been recording unexpectedly weak margins, suggesting that it does a lot of logistical heavy lifting. 

• Higher EPS and TP but still a HOLD
• Targets 10% card spending growth, 7% personal loan growth and THB11.5b title loans
• Better card spending but weak loan growth in 1Q22
• Raised FY22-23F earnings due to lower credit cost

• Maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt162. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 6.6%,growth 2%), implying 0.6x PBV’22E, -1SD to its five-year means. 
• With its focus on corporate and international loans, BBL will likely suffer fewer impacts when compared with its competitor from elevated household debts and a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
• Net profit will continue to rise further in 2022-23, supported by solid fundamentals and an improvement in economic activity.

• The Information Memorandum is out regarding the True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
• The shareholder meetings for both companies will be held on the 4 April, with a tentative listing date of the NewCo late September.
• The IFAs for both companies are of the opinion that shareholders should approve the Amalgamation. 

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt8.30, based on DCF (WACC of 9.8% and Terminal Growth of 3.5%), implying 25.9xPE’23. We see attractive play on reopening, upon the progress 
• Its 4Q21 net loss was at Bt46m, which continued for 7 consecutive quarters, attributed mainly to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
• SPA’s 2021 net loss was at  Bt287m, pressured by weak revenue growth, which drop 61%YoY upon brief closure of spas and massages in Jan 21 and end of Apr-Sep 21.

• New TP of THB13, Top Pick LH (BUY)
• Residential division has yet to fully recover
• Expect lower gains from sale Mention this in the textof industrial properties
• Improvement in commercial property/hospitality unit

• Keep Buy, new TP of THB10.8
• Healthy Jan-Feb 2022 presales
• Major launches planned for 3Q22
• Expect solid pick-up in non-core businesses

We keep our Buy rating on LH as we expect all its businesses to stage significant rebounds this year, and for its attractive 6.6% FY22E dividend yield. We forecast FY22 earnings to grow 22% YoY and FY23 by another 10% YoY. 2H22 is likely to be strong with the bulk of launches in 3Q while overall performance should peak in the 4Q high season. Risks to our estimates include the macro outlook, rising inflation given a surge in energy prices, labour shortages and possible delays in launch/completion of projects. Our SOP-based TP rises 2% to THB10.80, after we fine-tune our earnings forecasts and factor in asset appreciation.

• Maintain HOLD, lower TP to THB24; Top Pick LH (BUY)
• Record-high FY21 revenue, earnings and margins
• Unexciting FY22E earnings due to high base
• Pedestrian earnings outlook for FY22-24E