TMT/Internet Archives | Page 32 of 122 | Smartkarma

• With just over a week left to review cutoff, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.
• Guotai Junan Securities, Cambricon Technologies and SAIC Motor could replace CGN Power, Luzhou Laojiao and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.

• TSMC: +24.7% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread At Current Level
• ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for Closer to Parity Before Going Long Again
• ChipMOS: +1.8% Premium; Can Continue to Consider Shorting at Current Level

• Nvidia set a new record for the largest single one day loss of market cap, losing 700 billion on a 17% down move
• Market risk is about being wrongly sized and underestimating volatility, diversifying assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and broad market put spreads is recommended
• Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance, as exposures within markets are interconnected and risk can be amplified when positions are crowded

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Foxconn chairman emphasizes collaboration with Nissan, denies interest in takeover, focusing on their partnership.
• SMIC targets automotive growth, facing competition in China’s chip market, seeking to expand market share.
• Microip sees 489% revenue growth post-CES success, expanding ‘designless’ strategy, fueling January success.

• US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China’s subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. 
• All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
• DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.

• Coherent’s latest earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 illustrates a mixed set of outcomes, reflecting significant advancements in certain segments while highlighting ongoing challenges that the company faces in other areas.
• Revenue reached a record $1.43 billion, marking a 6% sequential and 27% year-over-year growth, driven by substantial progress in AI-related datacom transceivers and increasing demand in the telecom sector.
• This growth is a positive indicator of Coherent’s robust position in high-speed optical data communication markets, especially as they continue to expand their customer base for significant transceiver products like the 800-gig and invest in advancing their 1.6T transceiver applications.

• Skyworks Solutions recently reported its first fiscal quarter of 2025, delivering results that met or surpassed expectations in key financial metrics.
• The company posted a revenue of $1.068 billion, with earnings per share of $1.60 and generated a free cash flow of $338 million.
• These results were slightly above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting successful revenue growth strategies, particularly across its mobile and broad markets segments.

• Tenable Network Security’s latest quarterly performance reflects a series of strategic moves aimed at solidifying its position in the cybersecurity industry, aligning business growth with shareholder returns.
• The company reported robust financial results, exceeding expectations across several key metrics such as calculated current billings (CCB) growth, operating margin, and unlevered free cash flow.
• On the positive side, Tenable’s revenue for the quarter was $235.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 11%, which surpassed the anticipated midpoint of their guidance.

• Paycor, a human capital management (HCM) solutions provider, shared promising financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending September 30, 2024.
• The company reported a 17% increase in revenue year-over-year, reaching $167 million, largely fueled by strong recurring revenue growth of 16%, driven by a 5% increase in the average number of employees on its platform and an 11% rise in revenue per employee per month (PEPM).
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• PTC’s first quarter of fiscal 2025 results came in slightly above initial guidance amidst ongoing challenges in the macroeconomic environment and strategic changes in its go-to-market framework.
• The results underscore the company’s resilient annual recurring revenue (ARR) and robust free cash flow, indicative of a diversified business model and strong execution strategies.
• Positively, PTC reported a constant currency ARR of $2.277 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year increase.

• HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shares declined 4.4% after a Sing Tao Daily article claimed that the precondition satisfaction of China Mobile (941 HK)’s offer is at a stalemate. 
• The mainland regulatory authorities have not provided any feedback on the approval process. The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) deal break is cited as a cautionary tale.
• While the China TCM deal break taught us that no deal is safe, even an SOE-sponsored deal, the article’s concerns have little merit. This is a buy.

• Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
• Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
• In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

• SMIC’s 1Q25 guidance is for revenue to increase by 6% to 8% QoQ, and the gross margin to range from 19% to 21%.   
• Client revenue contribution from China/Europe/US has changed from 80.8%/15.7%/3.5% in 4Q23 to 89.1%/8.9%/2% in 4Q24. These numbers indicate that SMIC is gradually becoming independent from Europe and the US. 
• SMIC’s guidance for the year 2025 is that revenue growth is expected to be higher than the industry average in the same markets.

• Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center and client segments.
• The data center segment, which includes AI accelerators and server processors, delivered $3.9 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but missing analyst expectations of $4.09 billion.
• The company gained market share in CPUs, securing key wins with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

• Alphabet Inc. has faced a significant market correction, with its stock declining by 5% over the past week, leading to a $200 billion reduction in its market capitalization.
• This sell-off followed the release of the company’s latest financial results, which, despite reporting revenue growth, highlighted structural challenges that have raised concerns among investors.
• The primary issues stem from Alphabet Inc.’s substantial capital expenditure on artificial intelligence, slowing momentum in cloud computing, and increasing competitive pressures from more agile AI players such as OpenAI and DeepSeek.

• Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.
• Growth was primarily driven by increased sales in its handset and automotive segments.
• Despite a broader market slowdown, Qualcomm’s handset revenue rose 13%, benefiting from higher premium-tier smartphone sales and design wins with major manufacturers like Samsung and Chinese OEMs. The company also reported a 61% increase in automotive revenue to $961 million, reflecting strong demand for its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions.

• Arm Holdings, a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, reported an optimistic set of results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending December 31, 2024.
• The company achieved record revenue and a significant increase in royalty revenues, driven primarily by robust demand for AI technologies and the adoption of its latest Armv9 architecture and Compute Subsystem Solutions (CSS).
• On the financial front, Arm’s total revenue reached an all-time high of $983 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and surpassing the high end of company guidance.

• MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
• The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.
• This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.

• The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A. The price range has been upwardly revised from $19.00-$21.00 to $21.00-$23.00.
• Cornerstone investor Dragoneer has a strong track record with IPOs that have participated in. 
• The upwardly-revised price adjustment is a very bullish sign for the IPO and we have adjusted our early expectations on this deal.

• Indosat (ISAT IJ) booked 4Q2024 results below estimates, despite improving ARPUs and headline revenues, as margins were depressed with a greater focus on its B2B business. 
• There was also continuing aggressive competition in starter packs during the quarter, although this abated somewhat in early December but the company also lost non-productive subscribers as a result.
• Indosat continues to build on its AI edge both around its mobile strategies and as a standalone AI-as-a-service business. Valuations are attractive after sharp correction. 

• SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
• I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
• The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. 
• The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
• We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.

• OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
• TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
• Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

• Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
• L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) Index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
• We expect four changes for the HSIII index in March 2025. 

• Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX), there could be 10 constituent changes.
• The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.
• The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.

• Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case. 
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

• Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
• The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
• However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)’s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
• First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.
• Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. 

• ASML CEO suggests Trump’s tariffs could give US tech industry an advantage, potentially benefiting India’s tech sector as well.
• Tongfu begins trial assembly of HBM2, signaling potential growth in India’s tech industry in response to changing tariff policies.
• India lowers tariffs in response to Trump’s tariff policy, indicating a willingness to adapt and potentially increase trade opportunities.

• There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
• Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
• The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

• There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
• The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
• Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

• Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
• In Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on mid-tier revenue growth, bottom-tier margins, low offshore mix, rising unbilled receivables/contract assets and a large post-IPO share overhang.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Smart Share Global (EM US), ESR Group (1821 HK), Get Nice Financial. 
• Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Proto Corp (4298 JP). 

• We forecast Q4 consolidated revenue of ¥9.7bn (+27% YoY); Operating profit (OP) is expected to grow +129% YoY to ¥1.0bn in Q4
• For FY25, we expect the company to guide for +25% revenue growth and OP +160% to ¥5.7bn, significantly ahead of the street estimate of ¥4.8bn.
• Appier’s AI-powered solutions operate on top of generative AI models, utilizing proprietary data and analytics to enhance corporate online advertising efficiency.

• Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
• Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights — Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
• Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights — Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA

• Smartphone revenues increased by 31% in 2024 and will increase by 15-20% in 2025 in my view: small volume growth (5%), ASP increase (AI in chips), share gains in premium.  
• MTK multiple bets in Automotive, AI, ARM CPU are starting to pay off. Nvidia GB100 revenues mid-25, AI Accelerator revenue start mid-26, Nvidia Auto revenue in 2H26 – my estimates.
• Consensus forecasts revenues increasing +35% from 2024 to 2026, Net Income +30%. That should be the low-end of the range. The stock is trading at 21.1x 2025 EPS, 17.6x 2026.

• Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
• In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
• A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit

• In the post-CNY return, SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was not. 
• Tech ended up being a big net buy, but Tencent (700 HK) a big net sell. 
• Lower-Than-Expected tariff rates against China meant foreigners are back to buying Chinese stocks for the time being which may lower SB net buys near-term.

• Powerful rally for HSI lands its 1-week price change in the 94th percentile of all weekly moves since 2000.
• Implied vols raising a caution flag, trading at the 78th percentile over the past year and 68th percentile since the start of 2001.
• Call volumes as a percentage of total option volumes has been dropping over the past three weeks. 

• You could label Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)“BULLISH” because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren’t exciting.
• WH Group (288 HK)spins off Smithfield Foods (SFD US) – below the prior expected price range.  Pricing looks full here.
• As China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?

• I tally 61 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Six new deals! Australia’s SelfWealth (SWF AU), and Japan’s Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tohto Suisan (8038 JP), Tecnos Japan (3666 JP), Proto (4298 JP), & Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU) , Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) , Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Suntec REIT (SUN SP), and Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin  (2887 TT).

• TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.
• Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.
• ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman’s heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.

• Sify Technologies Ltd is planning to tap into the burgeoning demand for data centers in the India via a INR3,000 crore IPO
• Sify has aggressive expansion plans in place with the aim to triple its data center capacity to more than 350 MW in the coming years.
• We expect the value of standalone data center business to be more than the current market cap of Sify. In our view, IPO will unlock value for existing Sify shareholders.

• Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record metrics across multiple fronts.
• The company achieved its highest-ever fourth-quarter addition of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and a substantial increase in premium subscribers, reflecting positively on its growth strategies and customer engagement efforts.
• Positives from the performance include the notable growth in Spotify’s MAUs, adding 35 million users to reach 675 million, alongside 11 million new subscribers bringing the total to 263 million.

• Snap Inc.’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings present a mixed bag for investors, showcasing both resilient growth and areas of concern.
• On the positive side, the company reported an increase in daily active users (DAUs), reaching 453 million globally, an increase of 39 million year-over-year.
• This user growth implies an expanding reach which could benefit long-term engagement and monetization strategies.

• Match Group recently reported their Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings, shedding light on financial performance and strategic directions.
• The company reported revenues of $3.5 billion for 2024, reflecting a 3% increase year-over year, or 6% on an FX-neutral basis.
• Despite facing lower revenue growth than initially anticipated, Match Group succeeded in meeting their Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) margin target of 36%, indicating strong cost management practices.

• Fox Corporation recently announced its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, showcasing significant growth across multiple fronts but also highlighting areas of concern for future investor considerations.
• The company reported a record quarterly EBITDA of $781 million, representing a 123% increase from the previous year, alongside a 20% revenue growth reaching over $5 billion.
• This promising financial performance was primarily driven by robust advertising and affiliate revenue growth, political advertising, strength in FOX News ratings, and impressive sports viewership.

• Implied vols rose 2.22 points in Monday’s sell off but round-tripped on the week, giving all the gains back by Friday. 
• Rough start to the week amid tariff talk, Kospi dropping 2.64%.
• At this level we expect implied vol to remain more reactive to price shocks than we have seen over the past two months.

• Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) had a mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 performance, which presented both challenges and positive developments.
• On the downside, the company faced a financial performance below expectations, notably with its key franchises.
• The newly launched “Dragon Age: The Veilguard,” despite being well-received critically, did not perform as expected due to the competitive nature of the single-player RPG market.

• Introduction to the Odd Lots Podcast with hosts Jill Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway
• Discussion with guest Sean Sham Sankar, CTO of Palantir, about defense spending and technology
• Focus on the importance of data integration and human decision-making in the defense industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion. 
• BPEA privatised Hexaware in 2020. In 2021, Carlyle won an auction to acquire a 95.51% stake in Hexaware.
• The bull case rests on sold revenue growth, reducing customer concentration, high utilization, low attrition rates, high customer satisfaction scores and top-tier cash generation.

• Sify Technologies (SIFY US) is planning a Rs. 3,000 crore IPO for its data centre subsidiary, Sify Infinite Spaces, aiming to unlock significant hidden value and realign its market valuation.
• The IPO underscores rapid growth in India’s data centre market, driven by Digital India and 5G, offering a strategic edge with lower capital costs versus global peers.
• Investors can capitalize on a notable valuation arbitrage, as Sify’s data centre arm is vastly undervalued compared to the parent’s market cap, promising long-term upside.

• Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.
• For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY. Ads grew by +18% YoY, and revenues in other segments increased by mostly High Single Digit (HSD) rate.
• I’ll discuss more about AWS later, but let’s talk more about Amazon ex-AWS first.

• 1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. 
• Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
• GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon’s effect on resource allocation. 

• This is a follow-up research note on MoneyHero Group, a leading personal finance and digital insurance aggregation platform in Greater Southeast Asia.
• The company delivered a strong Q3 2024 performance, signaling a strategic shift towards efficiency and high-margin products.
• Revenue rose 6% YoY to $20.9M, with personal loans, wealth/investment offerings, and insurance driving significant growth.

• The first software IPO of 2025 is checking all the boxes and is expected to deliver strong returns versus issue price when it debuts on February 13th.
• There are currently two anchor orders on this deal which have each indicated for up to 20% of the offering (AllianceBernstein & Dragoneer Investment Group). 
• The IPO market is “eager and ready” for the technology window to open up. We like the risk-reward profile of this deal at this time. 

• Palantir Technologies Inc. saw a significant surge in its stock price following a robust earnings report that surpassed analyst expectations.
• The company projected full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $3.75 billion, exceeding the $3.54 billion consensus estimate.
• Adjusted operating income is anticipated to be around $1.56 billion, highlighting Palantir’s continued momentum in artificial intelligence and government contracts.

• The potential IPO of Sify Infinite Spaces is likely to have a positive impact on Sify Technologies. 
• The overall market size of data centers in India is huge and Sify Infinite Spaces certainly has the experience and capability to become one of the leaders in this segment.
• Despite attractive market opportunity, there will be some investors that will question the overall valuation levels of Sify Infinite Spaces to justify seeking nearly 30 billion INR in the IPO. 

• Intel CEO position vacant; speculation rises after management shake-up at GF.
• Alibaba’s Qwen model outperforms DeepSeek V3 in new benchmark test.
• Taiwan notebook market set for growth in 4th quarter of 2024; Global economic slowdown impacting Microchip sales.

• In November 2020, HT Global IT Solutions acquired all the shares it did not own in Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) and delisted the stock from the NSE and BSE.
• Now, Carlyle Group is looking to raise INR 87.5bn by selling stock at a price range of INR 674-708/share, valuing Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) at US$4.8bn.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and September, though the impact will be limited.

• Jack Henry is a best in class operator within the vertical market software space
• They sell operating system software for small and mid-sized banks
• Jack Henry focuses on organic growth and their core product

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Crooz’s Shop-list.com used to be one of the fastest growing online fashion malls in Japan but, just before Covid, it hit a wall and hasn’t recovered since. 
• Now it will be merged with Korean fashion mall, Nugu, and its real value as a database of young female consumers will become clear. 
• This should help Nugu grow to GTVs of ¥100 billion from Japan alone but will leave Crooz as a small bit player in digital services.

• ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chips
• ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printers
• EUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.  
• The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)
• The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.

• Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
• In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
• Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.

• Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.
• Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.
• SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC’s expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.

• Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?
• FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.
• Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.

• Allegro MicroSystems reported third-quarter fiscal year 2025 revenues of $178 million, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.
• The company posted a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.07, also above the anticipated outlook.
• Despite these accomplishments, the company’s quarterly sales declined 5% sequentially and 30% year-over year.

• AppFolio Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, showcasing notable growth and strategic advancements.
• Fourth quarter revenue increased by 19% year-over-year to $204 million, contributing to a 28% annual growth, resulting in total revenue of $794 million for the year.
• The company’s non-GAAP operating margin more than doubled from the previous year to 25%, attributed to strategic execution and operational efficiencies.

• Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
• It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
• This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

• Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
• The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May. 
• The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer. 

• On the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
• The Offer Price is HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close. 
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th February, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA says “fair and reasonable”.

• TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
• Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
• Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory

• Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
• How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
• Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.

• Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
• AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
• H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.

• 4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.
• Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.
• Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.

• TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
• ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
• ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level

• Pentamaster International (1665 HK)’s IFA opines that Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 February. 
• The IFA analysis is biased because it conveniently ignores a relative valuation analysis, which would show that the final offer is unattractive compared to its global peers.
• Disappointingly, there is little minority opposition to an arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging valuation multiple discrepancies across two exchanges. 

• Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.
• Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.
• I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. 

• KKR & Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
• A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week. 
• Expect a final round of bids, as KKR’s offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR’s offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. 

• In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
• On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
• We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.

• Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Ant Capital at JPY1,155, a 38.7% premium to the last close.
• The offer is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and represents a seven-year high.
• Ant has secured irrevocables from the top three shareholders. However, the largest shareholder’s irrevocable has a counteroffer and share price clause, which could result in a competing bid. 

• There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
• With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
• With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.

• Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) decided it wanted to go private. It has a bunch of large shareholders and a lot of retail, and was getting kicked out of TOPIX.
• An activist bought 6% last spring, Tecnos conducted a bidding process last fall. Ant Capital won. The activist has 10+% now. They and two others with 25% agreed to tender.
• This should get done easily. It is not expensive, but an auction is good process and should be a model for deals done in future.

• In Dec 2024, Bain announced it would overbid KKR’s bid without requiring Fuji Soft’s approval, backed by the founding family. In early Jan 2025, we got an anticipated start date.
• That anticipated start date is upon us. KKR’s deal to close 7 Feb is now bumped to ¥9,800 and extended 7 days, suggesting Bain’s bid beacons.
• I think they’ll have to go to ¥10,000 and from here there may not be much upside. I’d rather stay away.

• Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.
• Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.
• Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.

• SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo and is seeking a valuation north of $11b after taking the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
• The sponsor will be only selling 2.5mm shares in this offering.
• As of October 31, 2024, their annual recurring revenue was $813.2 million, reflecting an increase of 30% compared to October 31, 2023. 

• Austin-Based SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed identity management software company, has announced the initial price range for its US IPO.
• The offering is expected to be between $19.00 and $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$11B at the midpoint, up ~61% vs. take-private transaction valuation of ~$6.9B in 2022.
• I see modest post-listing upside for SailPoint stock, and the company plans to use only ~$690M to repay a portion of its $1.5B+ debt.

• Revenue increased 31.1% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with HENNGE One revenue at JPY2.3bn and Professional Service at JPY175mn.
• Operating profit rose 37.3% YoY to JPY529mn, with a margin of 21.1% and SG&A expenses at JPY1.6bn.
• Gross profit reached JPY2.1bn, gross margin at 85.5%, and advertising expenses increased 68.8% YoY to JPY157mn.

• Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
• Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time). 
• Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.

• Market value of stocks close to 2 trillion, including Nvidia at 600 billion
• Author missed opportunity to short Nvidia despite strong case outlined in article
• Concerns about competition, margins, and custom chips impacting Nvidia’s growth potential

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• LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) priced its IPO at KRW61,900 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$820 million. The shares will start trading on 5 February.
• We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case and LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights.
• Since the prospectus’s release, the peers have marginally re-rated. The valuation remains undemanding at the IPO price, and bullish grey market prices suggest a strong debut.

• Stifel is a leading middle market investment bank with a large equity research franchise
• Stifel has won the J.D. Power Award for Employee Advisor satisfaction two years in a row
• The Odd Lots podcast discusses topics like MicroStrategy’s perpetual motion machine and leveraged bitcoin investments

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• LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
• LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
• In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

• After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
• But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
• The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.

• Didi Global Inc. is a prominent mobility technology platform offering ride hailing, taxi hailing, and ride sharing services
• The company dominates the market in China and Latin America, especially in Brazil and Mexico
• Didi also has other initiatives including E-bike sharing, energy and vehicle services, intra-city freight, autonomous driving, and financial services.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• India aims to create its own foundational model by 2025, showing its commitment to technological development and innovation.
• DeepSeek’s founder’s journey from stock prodigy to AI disruptor highlights the potential for growth and success in the tech industry.
• Cadence’s focus on expanding in India’s data center industry shows the increasing importance of this sector in the global economy.

• Celestica’s fourth-quarter 2024 financial performance illustrates a complex landscape with both impressive achievements and areas of strategic caution.
• The company reported strong revenue growth, reaching $2.55 billion, aligning with the high end of its guidance.
• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed expectations, recording $1.11, reflecting the company’s robust operational capabilities.

• India plans to create its own foundational model by 2025, aiming for independence in technology development.
• DeepSeek’s founder, a former stock prodigy, is now making waves in the field of AI disruption.
• Cadence is focusing on expanding in India’s growing data center market, expecting continued growth in the future.