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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ARTERIA Networks Corp, Sea , KT Corp, Kape Technologies, Unity Software, Tata Technologies, SenSen Networks, Siltronic AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Marubeni & Secom To Launch Tender Offer for Arteria Networks (4423)
  • Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM
  • [Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$62) Earnings Preview]: Increase Spending in ECommerce and Gaming
  • KT Cloud Receives 600 Billion Investment from IMM at a Valuation of 4.6 Trillion Won
  • Unikmind Holdings/Kape Technologies: Delisting
  • [Unity Software (U US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY as AI Spending Offset by Topline Growth
  • Tata Technologies IPO: Negatives Outweigh the Positives
  • SenSen Networks – Positioned to scale on a lower cost base
  • Siltronic Q1’23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

Marubeni & Secom To Launch Tender Offer for Arteria Networks (4423)

By Travis Lundy

  • Marubeni (8002 JP) and Secom (9735 JP) today announced a Tender Offer to take private Marubeni’s subsidiary ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP) at a 54% premium to the close. 
  • Listed 4.5yrs ago, the company hasn’t grown hugely. Revenue growth is slow. EBITDA growth is flat. The takeout is 3.6x book, 7x estimated EBITDA, and about mid-teens PER. Without synergies.
  • The price is OK, not great. The Board rejected the final price because it was too low and didn’t include synergies, then accepted because the bidders wouldn’t go further? Hmmm…

Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM

By Arun George

  • ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP) has recommended Marubeni Corp (8002 JP) and Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,980 per share, a 54.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 16.61% ownership ratio.
  • The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive. 

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$62) Earnings Preview]: Increase Spending in ECommerce and Gaming

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Shopee is spending more in recent months to defend from TikTok Ecommerce’s growth; 
  • Further, we see increased marketing to maintain <FreeFire’s> user base, especially in Indonesia; We suggest that SEA’s strong margin performance in 4Q22 was temporary. 
  • We forecast that 1Q23’s net margin is 11.2% vs. 4Q22’s 17.9%. We maintain our SELL rating and US$ 62 TP, implying 27x FY23 P/E.

KT Cloud Receives 600 Billion Investment from IMM at a Valuation of 4.6 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 May, it was announced that KT Cloud received a 600 billion investment from IMM, valuing KT Cloud at 4.6 trillion won. 
  • Given that KT Cloud is valued at 4.6 trillion won, an 86.6% stake would be worth 4 trillion won which would be 49% of KT’s current market. 
  • The investment in KT Cloud is likely to have a positive impact on KT Corp. Plus, KT Corp is a likely candidate for MSCI Korea Standard inclusion in May 2023.

Unikmind Holdings/Kape Technologies: Delisting

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Unikmind (Teddy Sagi, 54.18% holder), adamant on delisting Kabe, increased the offer price to USD3.60/share. The USD adjusted spread was positive until the offer was sweetened.
  • Unikmind has so far c.87.89% acceptances (above 75% threshold), therefore, the delisting will be carried out on an accelerated timeline on 31 May. A squeeze-out is highly likely.
  • Closing is on 19 May and settlement should happen on or before 2 June. Spread is 0.31%/5.14%, using FX 1.2614, and assuming settlement on 2 June. Long.

[Unity Software (U US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY as AI Spending Offset by Topline Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • Unity’s 1Q23 top line was in line with our estimate, and  bottom line was USD 34mn, vs. our est./cons. of USD 4/(3)mn, due to headcount reductions.
  • We expect it to outperform in coming quarters because: 1) Create solutions are reducing low margin businesses with low churn rate, 
  • 2) Growth solutions continue to gain share driven by integrated Mediation platform, 3) announced AI products with accumulated R&D further diversify Unity toolsets.

Tata Technologies IPO: Negatives Outweigh the Positives

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) , a subsidiary of Tata Motors, offers turnkey product engineering and digital transformation solutions to global OEMs and operates across automobiles, heavy industrials and aerospace sectors.
  • The company has filed for an IPO in India to raise around US$600m through an offer for sale of its shares by existing shareholders including Tata Motors.
  • Though the company’s revenues and margins have seen improvement over the last 2-3 years, we have highlighted a few concerns which investors should wary about.

SenSen Networks – Positioned to scale on a lower cost base

By Edison Investment Research

SenSen Networks (SNS) reported its ninth consecutive quarter of year-on-year record cash receipts in Q323, with growth across all key verticals and no customer churn. The company has also introduced further measures to achieve cash flow positivity and profitability from Q423, focusing on upselling to existing customers and introducing a salary sacrifice scheme for senior staff. We moderate our revenue growth forecasts to reflect these measures but upgrade our profitability and cash forecasts as a result. The short to medium term is likely to see greater focus on the smart cities segment, where the company has established a promising international market presence and where it has considerable scope to expand its engagements in its existing customer base. This positions SenSen well to scale more profitably in the mid-term.


Siltronic Q1’23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.
  • Q2’23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.
  • Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: CELSYS, Software AG, GlobalFoundries, FUJIFILM Holdings, Xperi, A10 Networks, Ubiquiti Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)
  • Rocket Software (Bain) Ups the Game
  • GlobalFoundries Q1’23 Revenue $1.84 Billion, -12% QoQ, -5% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ
  • Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There’s Further Upside
  • XPER: More Design Wins Pathing Revenue
  • ATEN: Cycling Thru Revenue Bottom
  • UI: Show Me After Results

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as “Artspark”) is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
  • In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.

Rocket Software (Bain) Ups the Game

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Bain goes mildly hostile, with a €34/share indicative offer (20.5x EV/Fwd EBIT on IBES consensus), above 11.1x last-10y average. Further, if it fully succeeded, it’d raise to €36/share (21.6x).
  • Software AG dislikes the improved indicative offer. The situation reminds of the battle for Caverion Corp (CAV1V FH), now being played, in which precisely Bain has been the unexpected loser.
  • At this point, it seems Silver Lake will have to raise its offer again. I raise my TP to €34. Long (possible upside to Bain’s €36/share, 6.1% gross).

GlobalFoundries Q1’23 Revenue $1.84 Billion, -12% QoQ, -5% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of $1.84 billion, -12% QoQ ,- 5% YoY, but at the high end of the guided range
  • Remains on track for >50% wafer capacity growth between 2021 and 2024
  • Muted CY’23 outlook sends shares down ~10% by close. Buying opportunity?

Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There’s Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Fujifilm delivered its 4Q and full-year FY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 15.0% and 63.2% YoY to ¥764.7bn (vs consensus ¥715.7bn) and ¥70.4bn (vs consensus ¥62.5bn) respectively.
  • The company’s full-year revenue and OP were above its own guidance as well as consensus, and we think FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) ’s guidance for FY03/2024E is too conservative.
  • The market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging company and not in line with healthcare peers suggesting there is significant upside to the current valuation multiples.

XPER: More Design Wins Pathing Revenue

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER reported new customer wins with the release of first quarter results. Continued expansion of XPER’s customer base in connected TV and cars affirms our thesis
  • XPER had already won a major TV OEM in Europe and has now won a second TV producer planning to use TiVo OS
  • XPER announced a global program design win with a Japanese automaker for DTS AutoStage

ATEN: Cycling Thru Revenue Bottom

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN had already warned of the shortfall in Q1 revenue and the official release of the results was an update on the improvement the business has seen in recent months
  • ATEN’s management used the first quarter earnings call asserting orders have increased in recent months and ATEN would post sequentially higher revenue in the second quarter
  • Network security is not an area we would expect much penny pinching over the course of the year

UI: Show Me After Results

By Hamed Khorsand

  • UI reported fiscal third quarter (March) results mostly in line with our lowered estimates. The business climate for network hardware has cooled in recent months and Ubiquiti is no different
  • Ubiquiti has spent the past year building inventory to meet demand after many quarters of not having adequate supply
  • Simultaneous with revenue growth has been an improvement in gross margin. Gross margin is beginning to revert to prior levels of 45 percent and higher

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Cosmo AM&T, Naver Corp, KE Holdings Inc, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Meta Platforms (Facebook), ASML Holding NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK) Earnings Preview: To See Recovery in 1Q23
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Changes in September
  • Naver (2023 High Conviction Update): Poshmark & Gen Z – Key Drivers of Higher Sales in North America
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Government Clears the Commission Uncertainties
  • Novatek: Volume Production of VR Driving Strongest Segment; AR/VR Finally Going Mass Market in 2023?
  • Meta Platforms Inc.: Riding The New AI Wave? – Market Dominance & Other Drivers
  • ASML Holding N.V.: Does It Have A Strong Enough Moat? – Key Drivers

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings Preview: To See Recovery in 1Q23

By Ming Lu

  • We believe total revenue will grow by 6% in 1Q23, compared to four stagnant quarters in 2022.
  • We also believe operating margin will improve by 2 percentage points YoY in 1Q23 due to the layoff in 1Q22.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 48%, but we reduce our price target from HK$563 to HK$505.

KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
  • We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 56 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 2 new adds to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.

Naver (2023 High Conviction Update): Poshmark & Gen Z – Key Drivers of Higher Sales in North America

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an update of Naver Corp which is our 2023 high conviction stock. Naver’s shares are up 19% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 12% YTD. 
  • The total transaction amount of Naver Commerce was 11.6 trillion won (up 19.7% YoY) in 1Q 2023. Poshmark also generated positive EBITDA in 1Q 2023. 
  • Naver plans to cancel about 1.6 million treasury shares per year (1% of outstanding shares) in the next three years (for a combined 3% of outstanding shares). 

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Government Clears the Commission Uncertainties

By Shawn Yang

  • China government guided no commission capping on real estate brokerage business, but the ladder-pricing system may lead to moderate commission rate reduction for Beike.
  • We estimate that 0.1% of Lianjia commission rate cut can imply to 1.2% of revenue reduction for Beike in 2023. 
  • Therefore, we lowered revenue by (2.8%) and net income by (5.3%) to factor in the potential changes.  We maintain BUY rating but cut the TP by US$2 to US$21.  

Novatek: Volume Production of VR Driving Strongest Segment; AR/VR Finally Going Mass Market in 2023?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Novatek reported earnings ahead of expectations where margins rose thanks to recovery in pricing for its products in inventory. Inventory metrics improved as well.
  • Key industry readthrough — Novatek seeing strongest demand for DDICs (display driver chips) coming from the small/medium form factor and highlighted mass production of VR as a cause.
  • Apple could be quietly preparing for mass production of AR/VR headset ahead of announcement at June’s WWDC. Combined with Novatek’s comments, could AR/VR will be going mass market this year?

Meta Platforms Inc.: Riding The New AI Wave? – Market Dominance & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms had a decent quarter and surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company is progressing in improving its distributed work model, delivering AI tools to improve productivity, and removing unnecessary processes.
  • AI recommendations now operate more than 20% of users’ Facebook and Instagram Feeds and over 40% of content on Instagram.

ASML Holding N.V.: Does It Have A Strong Enough Moat? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASML Holding had a mixed first quarter with below par revenues but performing better than expected on the revenues front.
  • Net sales increased significantly due to higher-than-anticipated EUV and deep UV revenue from quicker system installation and earlier acceptance in the quarter.
  • The company also shipped 9 EUV systems with significant revenue from 17 systems.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hoya Corp, CUBox, Software AG, Globalwafers, Corning Inc, Verizon Communications, Fiserv Inc, International Business Machines, Lam Research, Texas Instruments and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hoya (7741) | A Visionary Company with a Blurry Future
  • CUBox IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Sweetened Offer and Bain Interloping
  • Globalwafers Q1’23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY
  • Corning Incorporated: Is The Drop In Revenues A Point Of Concern? – Key Drivers
  • Verizon Communications Inc.: A Mixed Performance For The Telecom Giant – Key Drivers
  • Fiserv Inc.: Major Deals with Walmart
  • International Business Machines (IBM): Launch of AI-Powered Security QRadar Suite & Other Drivers
  • Lam Research Corporation: Major Drivers
  • Texas Instruments: A Mixed Performer Across Different End Markets – Key Drivers

Hoya (7741) | A Visionary Company with a Blurry Future

By Mark Chadwick

  • Hoya has an impressive business model that results in high Returns on Invested Capital
  • Hoya reported strong Q4 results but there is little for investors to get excited about in the outlook
  • We see a lack of catalysts and an expensive valuation as working against the stock in the short term

CUBox IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 May, CUBox (340810 KS) announced its IPO price of 15,000 won, which is 13% lower than the lower end of the IPO price range of 17,200 won.
  • Our base case valuation of CUBox is implied target price of 22,719 won per share, which represents 51% higher than the IPO price of 15,000 won.
  • CUBox claims that it has one of the world’s best technologies in the field of AI face recognition. 

Sweetened Offer and Bain Interloping

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Bain has a 10.01% stake (likely acquired <€32/share) and could play nasty: its stake is enough to block a squeeze-out, and if it launches a €34/share offer, it will be hostile.
  • Meanwhile, Silver Lake (5% recently acquired+25.1% from the foundation) has sweetened to €32/share (19.4x EV/Fwd EBIT, well above 11.1x last-10y average). The Board could change sides (as recently with Caverion).
  • The shares trade 3.5% above Silver Lake’s, but at a discount of 2.5% to Bain’s possible offer. The market believes Bain will bid. I raise my TP to €32.

Globalwafers Q1’23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ.
  • No specific Q2’23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and the end of a 13 quarter growth streak 
  • YTD silicon carbide revenues have already exceeded full year 2022 revenues, albeit coming from a low base.

Corning Incorporated: Is The Drop In Revenues A Point Of Concern? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Corning saw a sequential drop in its total revenues of around 7% in the recent result but this was still better than analyst expectations.
  • Despite the lower sales, Corning’s actions to raise prices and restore productivity ratios resulted in gross margin expanding 160 basis points.
  • Although multiple markets remain weak, the company expects results to improve in the second quarter.

Verizon Communications Inc.: A Mixed Performance For The Telecom Giant – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verizon Communications delivered a mixed quarter with below-par revenues despite continued growth of the business across the private and broadband networks, as well as mobility.
  • It grew overall postpaid phone gross adds by 5% and achieved 3% wireless service revenue growth.
  • Growth is seen for fixed wire access, and it continues to scale and increasingly contributes to revenue performance.

Fiserv Inc.: Major Deals with Walmart

By Baptista Research

  • Fiserv is off to quite a strong start in the year with adjusted revenue growth and an increase in adjusted earnings per share resulting in an all-around beat.
  • Adjusted operating margin was up and organic revenue growth was higher than expected, demonstrating the company’s ability to sustain accelerated growth.
  • Clover revenue growth stays strong and Fiserv continues to add merchants at quite a healthy pace.

International Business Machines (IBM): Launch of AI-Powered Security QRadar Suite & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IBM had a decent start to the year with a mixed result.
  • The company’s revenues were below market expectations though it did manage an earnings beat, with free cash flow increasing well.
  • Revenue in the data and AI sector increased due to data management, business analytics, asset, and supply chain management growth.

Lam Research Corporation: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lam Research Corporation delivered strong quarter results with revenues, operating margins, and earnings per share above Wall Street expectations.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter was $3.87 billion, a 27% decrease from the prior quarter, witnessing the classic cyclicality associated with the semiconductors industry.
  • Foundry-related system revenues reached new highs, indicating the company’s continued success in both cutting-edge and specialty technology categories.

Texas Instruments: A Mixed Performer Across Different End Markets – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments managed to deliver an all-around beat in the last quarter even though revenue decreased sequentially.
  • Analog revenue declined, embedded processing grew, and its other segment declined in line with the cyclicality in the semiconductors market.
  • The industrial market was flat this quarter, the automotive market was up, and personal electronics declined.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Macronix International, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Acer Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Canon Inc, Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard TWSE Div+ Jun 23: New Potential Index Changes and Flow Expectations Update
  • JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase
  • PC Industry Monitor: Close Long Asus, Short Acer; Now Reverse the Trade and Long ACER Vs. Short Asus
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Earnings; Long/Short Into Asustek Results; Quanta Tracking Apple Shares
  • A Case Study of How Nothing Will Change Unless Management Changes
  • Navigating The Grid

Quiddity Leaderboard TWSE Div+ Jun 23: New Potential Index Changes and Flow Expectations Update

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • There have been some changes to my expectations for the TWSE Div+ index June 2023 index changes and capping flows.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs/DELs. Some of these names are different from the ones I specified in my previous insight.
  • In this insight, we take a look at my latest flow expectations.

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase

By Travis Lundy

  • For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
  • The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to one relatively simple indicator. 
  • The policy backdrop points to greater corporate buying, greater foreign flow, greater selling by individuals and trust banks. The current timing probably matches. 

PC Industry Monitor: Close Long Asus, Short Acer; Now Reverse the Trade and Long ACER Vs. Short Asus

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Acer shares slumped 7% in a day after the company missed analyst expectations. Acer has now underperformed Asustek since our March 21st Long Asustek vs. Short Acer recommendation.
  • Despite the earnings miss, Acer management said it believed 1Q23 will be the trough for the business and metrics should be improving going forward.
  • We believe one can consider reversing our Long Asustek vs. Short Acer Trade to become Long ACER vs. Short Asustek, and hold this trade through Asustek’s upcoming earnings results.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Earnings; Long/Short Into Asustek Results; Quanta Tracking Apple Shares

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Major earnings this week including Hon Hai, Novatek, Wistron, Asustek, and more.
  • We believe one can consider Long Acer vs. Short Asustek into Asustek’s results this week.
  • Apple Suppliers — Quanta has tracked Apple’s success while others have lagged by a large margin.

A Case Study of How Nothing Will Change Unless Management Changes

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Underlying Canon’s long-standing underperformance, which had frustrated shareholders, was the lack of diversity on the board, which gave domestic institutional investors an excuse to vote against re-election of inside directors.
  • Canon’s voluntary Nominating Committee also has challenges: with Mr. Mitarai, CEO since 1995, chairing the NC, it’s hard to imagine that discussions and decisions are conducted with objectivity and independence.
  • Although a female independent director might be hired at next AGM in response to the low approval rate for Mitarai’s reappointment, it’s not expected to make any significant changes immediately.

Navigating The Grid

By subSPAC

  • As the current digital landscape continues to evolve, companies are racing to adapt to the new normal.
  • Grid Dynamics has successfully capitalized on this demand, delivering services across Cloud, Data, AI, and Digital Experiences.
  • As a result, the company has enjoyed impressive growth and significantly expanded its clientele over the last few years.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tata Technologies, Tokai Carbon Korea, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, ACM Research, Chipmos Technologies, Tencent, Acer Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
  • A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
  • [ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent
  • ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient
  • ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia
  • Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
  • In Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.   

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Korean local sector ETF with the fastest growing AUM is TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, whose AUM has increased more than twice over the past two months.
  • HPSP (403870 KS) will replace Tokai Carbon Korea (064760 KS) by a comfortable margin in the upcoming review in October.
  • From a day trading perspective, this presents a significant Long-Short opportunity. Considering the relatively sizeable passive impact size, setting an entry point more aggressively may not be a bad idea.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent

By Shawn Yang

  • ACMR reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT and non-IFRS net profit (2.8%), 42% and 35% vs. our est., and in-line, and positive vs. negative, respectively. 
  • We estimate ACMR’s China wafer clean/ECD share was 11%/45%~ in 1Q23, +4/28ppts YoY, while guidance implies 45%/50%~ in 4Q23, respectively; 
  • We maintain BUY and US$ 30 TP, implying 2.0x FY24 EV/Sales

ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Chipmos Technologies (8150 TT) reported results last week, beating expectations and showing an increase in capacity utilization QoQ.
  • The company reported notable strength in Display Driver related demand, and capacity utilization for the segment may have bottomed back in 3Q22.
  • Memory is expected to have a delayed recovery according to ChipMOS, potentially coming in 3Q23. Adjusted our model — We continue to believe ChipMOS is cheap through the cycle.

ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • Nexus Select Trust will open books for India’s first Retail REIT, just as the first major India IPO for the year, Mankind Pharma seeks to list.
  • There was only Ventia (VNT AU) placement during the week, along with Giant Biogene Holding (2367 HK) lockup expiry.

Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 was Acer’s fifth consecutive quarter of sequentially declining revenues
  • Called Q1’23 the trough but no specific guidance on the current quarter
  • Chromebook sales surged 44.4% QoQ. What was the reason for this?

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Advanced Micro Devices, Mediatek Inc, Cliq Digital AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over
  • MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ
  • CLIQ Digital – Bundled content driving sales and profit growth

AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
  • Prompted by the bear market rally in

MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of NT$95.7 billion, down 11.6% sequentially and 33% year-over-year.
  • Q2’23 revenues sequentially flat at the midpoint. Longer replacement cycles and growing refurbishment market will see 2023 unit shipments decline a further ~10% YoY.
  • Strength in Smart Edge products (TV, Tablet, Telco, Automotive) continues to offset weakness in smartphones

CLIQ Digital – Bundled content driving sales and profit growth

By Edison Investment Research

CLIQ Digital had a very strong start to FY23, with a 58% y-o-y revenue uplift in Q123 (to €83m) and an EBITDA margin of 15.4% (Q122: 15.8%). Raised levels of marketing spend continue to drive momentum, generating growth in both the lifetime value of the customer base (LTVCB) and in the number of paid members. CLIQ is inherently highly cash generative and net cash was €10.9m at the quarter-end. Management has reiterated both FY23 and mid-term 2025 sales guidance, and our forecasts are unchanged, underpinned by the strong Q123 performance. CLIQ’s valuation remains at a significant discount to peers on EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, with substantial potential upside to the current share price on current estimates, in our view.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bukalapak, Pando, Hyve Group , Hua Hong Semiconductor, Advance Intelligence Group, Vection Technologies Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Specialty Hits Home
  • India-Based Firm Hauls in $30m to Simplify Logistics
  • Providence/Hyve: Scheme Approval
  • [Hua Hong (1347 HK) Target Price Change]: High IGBT Inventory Signals Pause in Top-Line Growth
  • Advance Intelligence Group Raises US$80M to Further Develop AI Innovations
  • Vection Technologies – Poised to reach guidance after a strong quarter

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Specialty Hits Home

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) announced 1Q2023 results with encouragingly strong headline growth coupled with even stronger revenues as take rates increased, with its marketplace being the standout driven by specialty verticals. 
  • Mitra Bukalapak also registered solid growth, with increasing active Mitra’s with greater frequency, higher take rates, and an improvement in contribution margin which should turn positive over the next 2Qs. 
  • Take rates should continue to improve as the specialty businesses pick up momentum, and once the Mitra business turns CM positive, growth in that segment will also accelerate.

India-Based Firm Hauls in $30m to Simplify Logistics

By Tech in Asia

  • Reliance on ecommerce has intensified within the past few years, but the pandemic, geopolitical tensions and government restrictions have disrupted the global supply chain.

  • Over the course of a decade, companies are expected to see losses equal to nearly half of what they make in a year.

  • US- and India-based Pando is looking to solve this issue and has raised funding to help it do so.


Providence/Hyve: Scheme Approval

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Another British company taken over by private equity. On 25 April, Providence sweetened its offer to 121p/share, a 12% increase (22.1x trailing EBITDA; 13.1 EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA).
  • On 3 May, all of the resolutions were passed at both Court Meeting and General Meeting. The Scheme Court Hearing is scheduled for 18 May. Settlement should happen on/before 2 June.
  • Although there isn’t enough liquidity for large tickets, at 120.4p the spread is 0.5%/6.6% (gross/annualised).

[Hua Hong (1347 HK) Target Price Change]: High IGBT Inventory Signals Pause in Top-Line Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Hua Hong to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and IFRS net income in-line, 14.1% and 19.1% vs. consensus, respectively. 
  • Our sample of 1Q23 A-share fabless balance sheets showed that inventory days rose, which we expect will lead to a slowdown in wafer orders beginning in 2Q23.
  • Despite near-term weakness, we are positive the longer-term benefits of (1) localization, and (2) EV demand. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HKD35.

Advance Intelligence Group Raises US$80M to Further Develop AI Innovations

By e27

  • Singapore-based AI company Advance Intelligence Group today announced it has raised US$80 million from an investor consortium
  • The fundraising follows its previous Series D funding round of over US$400 million in 2021.
  • In total, the company has raised over US$700 million and has secured capital in excess of US$1 billion supporting its credit book.

Vection Technologies – Poised to reach guidance after a strong quarter

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies’ Q323 activities report confirms that contract growth continued to accelerate in H223, with the company reporting 100% total contract value (TCV) growth from the end of January to 28 April. The momentum in TCV growth indicates that management is well-positioned to deliver the triple-digit half-on-half top-line growth required to reach its FY23 expectations. Cash receipts on a quarterly and nine-month basis increased year-on-year. Vection Technologies’ balance sheet is set to be sustained by a further A$3.5m in Q423 from an R&D tax receipt and outstanding invoices, supporting the company’s M&A pipeline.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Douzone Bizon, Tata Technologies, Advanced Micro Devices, Meituan, Focus Media Information Technology Co, Ltd., Pureprofile Ltd, Harvest Technology Group Ltd, Telekom Austria Ag and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September
  • Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case
  • AMD Q1’23 Revenue $5.4 Billion, -3.5% QoQ, -9% YoY. Q2 Flat Sequentially.
  • Meituan’s Strategies to Compete with Douyin: A Review of the Latest Three
  • Focus Media (002027 CH): Light at the End of Tunnel
  • Pureprofile Ltd – Guidance for Underlying EBITDA Margin of 11% for FY23
  • Harvest Technology Group Limited – Interest Level High and Rising
  • Telekom Austria: Is the Significant Discount to Peers Justified?

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
  • There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.
  • The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
  • Tata Technologies ranked first among India service providers and third globally among rated service providers for automotive ER&D services, according to Zinnov.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on its automotive leadership positioning, solid performance of the core business, high repeat rates, rising margin and cash generation. 

AMD Q1’23 Revenue $5.4 Billion, -3.5% QoQ, -9% YoY. Q2 Flat Sequentially.

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of $5.4 billion, down 3.5% QoQ, down 9% YoY, but marginally ahead of the guided midpoint.
  • AMD’s outlook for the current quarter is for revenues of $5.3 billion at the midpoint, basically flat sequentially:
  • Data center revenues will grow 50% sequentially in H2’23 compared to H1’23

Meituan’s Strategies to Compete with Douyin: A Review of the Latest Three

By Shawn Yang

  • Meituan has recently implemented three strategies to compete with Douyin: a low-price strategy, the addition of more video/live streaming content, and a management reorganization.
  • The low-price strategy has already shown some promising results, as seen in the slowdown of Douyin’s local service GTV and the number of new merchants joining its platform.
  • However, the effectiveness of the other two strategies, particularly Meituan’s push to add more video content, remains unclear.

Focus Media (002027 CH): Light at the End of Tunnel

By Eric Chen

  • Urbanization and brand premiumization are Focus Media’s two long term structural drivers which will keep broadening its audience and advertiser base.
  • 1Q23 results end a 5-quarter streak of profit decline and  mark the start of new profit cycle. This will usher in a meaningful stock re-rating if history is a guide.  
  • We expect at least 30% upside by the end of 2023 by applying 25x P/E (still at large discount to last profit cycle) on RMB4.9 billion net profit for 2023. 

Pureprofile Ltd – Guidance for Underlying EBITDA Margin of 11% for FY23

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights business underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • The company has an established position delivering insights to clients across 89 countries and has captured through its panel fully declared, deep consumer profiles, first-party data and insights.
  • Pureprofile has delivered a 22% increase in quarterly revenue to $10.3m from its core Data & Insights and SaaS platform businesses. Normalised EBITDA from these businesses increased 121% to $1.0m for the quarter. 

Harvest Technology Group Limited – Interest Level High and Rising

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Harvest Technology Group Limited (ASX:HTG) licenses its proprietary video compression and encryption technology for low-bandwidth, high-latency applications needing secure real-time streaming video communication.
  • The company delivers solutions for data transfer from anywhere via satellite or congested networks.
  • Harvest offers a solution which enables real-time monitoring of remote locations, real-time feedback for field technicians, and secure video conferencing. 

Telekom Austria: Is the Significant Discount to Peers Justified?

By Alexis Dwek

  • The Company has solid mid-single-digit top-line growth and has one of the healthiest balance sheets in the sector.
  • Telekom Austria announced plans to spin off and list its towers business. We believe this be a positive catalyst to unlock some of the Company’s hidden value.
  • Feedback from discussion with the IR included in this investment case

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AAC Technologies Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, At&T Inc, Sap Se Sponsored Adr, F5 Networks Inc, 1Spatial Plc, Gaia and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung
  • AT&T Inc.: Low Churn & Rising ARPU Saving The Day? – Key Drivers
  • SAP SE: Cloud Backlog Shoots Up But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers
  • F5 Inc.: A Resilient Performer Amidst Macro Uncertainty – Key Drivers
  • 1Spatial – New SaaS apps to drive high-margin growth
  • GAIA, INC. – 1Q23 Results Signal Positive Inflection with Renewed Membership Growth

Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
  • Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
  • Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Another major earnings week with AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Acer, Winbond, Wistron, Micro-Star, and more.
  • Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.
  • AMD reportedly transfers some 4nm chip business to Samsung from TSMC.

AT&T Inc.: Low Churn & Rising ARPU Saving The Day? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AT&T delivered mixed results in the quarter with below-par revenues but profitability above expectations.
  • As a result, wireless service revenues and EBITDA may increase, and margins may improve.
  • Despite a slowdown in industry growth, their Business Solutions wireless service revenues increased by almost 7%.

SAP SE: Cloud Backlog Shoots Up But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SAP delivered a highly disappointing set of results failing to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The current cloud backlog and cloud revenue for S/4HANA increased by 79% which is why Q1 revenue increased by 9% overall.
  • Their SaaS and PaaS portfolios continued to expand by 25%, with SaaS cloud revenue increasing by 22% and PaaS cloud revenue increasing by 45%.

F5 Inc.: A Resilient Performer Amidst Macro Uncertainty – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • F5 managed an all-around beat in its second quarter results despite ongoing macro-uncertainty.
  • Global Services revenue increased by 8% to $363 million, owing to high maintenance renewals and the effects of the price increase implemented in Q4 of last year.
  • Product sales increased 14% year on year, reflecting strong system shipments compared to a more difficult comparison in the previous quarter.

1Spatial – New SaaS apps to drive high-margin growth

By Edison Investment Research

1Spatial’s full year results confirm the solid progress made over the course of the year with revenue growing 11%, recurring revenues growing 21% and EBITDA margins expanding from 15.5% to 16.7%. With momentum continuing into this year, and a healthy order book and pipeline, the company looks well set for 2024. Progress in its key strategic growth pillars – traffic management, US expansion and smart partnerships – looks promising and could accelerate scalable high-margin recurring revenue growth. Investment in key sales hires suppresses our profitability estimates for FY24, but we expect this to start delivering returns in the form of faster growth and margin expansion from FY25.


GAIA, INC. – 1Q23 Results Signal Positive Inflection with Renewed Membership Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • Gaia reported 1Q23 revenue of $19.6 million versus $21.8 million in 1Q22, in line with expectations, but more importantly, this was the first quarterly sequential improvement in a year, which was also accompanied by the first member count growth in a year (+7,500 members).
  • Sequential revenue growth, member count growth, and improved retention all indicate a fundamental turn in Gaia’s business.
  • The company seems to have completed the cycle-through of its “COVID cohort bulge” and is now left with higher lifetime value members, providing a solid base for forward growth.

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