This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book
- Chagee’s order book is heavily influenced from Asian Investors as the deal is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.
- The underwriters and company came to market with a manageable size transaction and an attractive valuation.
- The geopolitical headwinds, specifically between China and the United States, is forcing many traditional IPO investors to stay on the sidelines.
2. Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
- There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
3. Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
- US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
- Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.
4. Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
- Chagee’s premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks.
- Chagee’s IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.
5. Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well
- Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
- We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
- In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.
6. China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release
- China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
7. Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform
- Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.
- Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations
- Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but “valuation discount” may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.
8. Rigaku IPO Lockup – Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
9. ECM Weekly (14 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, EBOS, Hengrui Pharma, Zenergy, Chagee, LG India, Huge Dental
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we looked at the possible A/H premium for Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), along with two live deals in Hong Kong .
- On the placements front, only Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)‘s shareholders were brave enough to launch a placement in the turbulent markets.
10. Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update
- Duality Biotherapeutics raised HKD 1,512m (USD 194m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, April 14th.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products and analyzed its valuation.
- In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.
