This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date.
- In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk. While the index hasn’t fallen since our warning, this doesn’t mean the risk has dissipated.
- Our profit target model (the “go SHORT” model) is showing a rare pattern with very few rallies, severely limited upside (less than 1.5%) and an 80% reversal probability.Bearish.
2. Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11
- Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
- Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
- Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.
3. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: What’s Next After NVDA Exit, Wild Swings, and Strong Earnings?
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) is swinging wildly. On Nov 11, the stock sank -13% after it said it had sold its entire stake in NVIDIA (NVDA US) for $5.83 billion.
- The stock also posted record Q2 earnings on Nov 12, but closed the day down -3.46% (after a strong rally from the 21k bottom). Most gains come from OpenAI investment.
- For sure it’s not easy to hold this stock at the moment, this insight will analyze the next 2-3 weeks’ outlook, support and resistance, according to our quantitative model.
4. Mitsubishi Electric: Digital Pivot Sparks 60% Profit Surge, What’s Next?
- Mitsubishi Electric is successfully executing a multi-year pivot toward becoming a high-margin digital solutions provider, anchored by its DX strategy and acquisition of OT security leader Nozomi Networks.
- H1 FY26 financial results confirm clear operating strength, showing a strong 60% year-over-year surge in net profit and strong revenue growth, especially within the Infrastructure and Life segments.
- Management’s shift to higher-margin software and services, along with disciplined capital management, is materializing value and helps justify a positive long-term view.
5. Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week
- Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)
- Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.
- Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.
6. Advantest Q2 FY2025, Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility
- Advantest’s updated guidance and MTP3 targets confirm its dominant, long-term growth trajectory as a key supplier for the high-performance computing and AI semiconductor supply chain.
- Despite a strong structural growth story, the stock faces near-term headwinds from a sequential decline in Q2 operating income and an elevated valuation that reflects peak market optimism.
- We suggest a tactical adjustment to vega exposure due to market dynamics, recommending a strategy to monetize the heightened implied and realized volatility following the strong earnings report.
7. Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns
- November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
- Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
- Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.
8. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Exit or Hedge Your Position
- In our previous, September 29th insight about Fast Retailing (9983 JP) , we flagged the stock for a rally. But boy, we didn’t anticipate how far it would run!
- 6 weeks have passed and the stock has rallied up nearly 30% as of Tuesday’s Close. We think it’s time to sell (or at least hedge your position).
- Rationale: the stock is incredibly overbought according to our model, plus it is one of the few stocks we track in Asia that has not started a pull back (yet).
9. Nintendo Post-Earnings, Pre-Holidays: Are Profit Margins Going to Jump Back?
- Switch 2’s successful launch drives a hyper-growth cycle, which may have been confirmed by the full-year hardware forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26.
- Despite a temporary Gross Profit Margin drop due to the initial low-margin hardware sales mix, a continued rebound could occur fueled by higher-margin software sales, especially during the holiday season.
- The analysis concludes with a leverage-optimized directional trading strategy, utilizing a typical recommended hedge to protect against potential short-term broader market volatility risks.
10. Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options
- AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.
- KOSPI’s 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.
- The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.
