European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Iveco Group N.V. is a global automotive leader specializing in commercial and specialty vehicles, powertrains, and related financial services. It designs, manufactures, and markets light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks, buses, and advanced powertrain technologies. The company is headquartered in Turin, Italy, and was established on January 1, 2022, following its demerger from CNH Industrial.

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.</li>
<li>At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.</li>
<li>Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.
At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.
Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.


Tata Motors / Iveco: One Last Gear Change

Permanent Tsb Group Holdings P / Event-Driven

Permanent TSB Group Holdings Public Limited Company provides retail financial services in the Irish domestic banking market. The Company offers banking and financial services to customers including current accounts, retail and corporate deposits, residential mortgages, credit cards, term loans, general insurance, pensions, investments, and life insurance.

<ul>
<li>BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.</li>
<li>The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.</li>
<li>Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.</li>
</ul>


BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.
The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.
Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.


Permanent TSB: €3.20 Is Not Yet an Offer

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane / Event-Driven

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A. (INWIT) is Italy's leading wireless infrastructure company. It builds, manages, and operates shared multi-operator passive infrastructure, including towers, masts, poles, small cells, and Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS), providing hosting and coverage services to mobile network operators, fixed wireless access providers, and broadcasters. The company, headquartered in Rome, Italy, was founded in 2015.

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW IM)

<ul>
<li>Ardian and Oak Holdings, controlling 70.6% of INWIT, are reportedly arranging financing for a take-private. Mubadala could join, but no formal offer has emerged.</li>
<li>TIM and Fastweb, accounting for 80% of revenues, are challenging their tower contracts. Our DCF yields €6.44/share with contracts preserved and €5.62 risk-weighted.</li>
<li>At €7.15, a hypothetical €8.50 bid offers 18.9% upside, against 21.4% standalone downside. We would stay on the sidelines pending a formal proposal.</li>
</ul>


Ardian and Oak Holdings, controlling 70.6% of INWIT, are reportedly arranging financing for a take-private. Mubadala could join, but no formal offer has emerged.
TIM and Fastweb, accounting for 80% of revenues, are challenging their tower contracts. Our DCF yields €6.44/share with contracts preserved and €5.62 risk-weighted.
At €7.15, a hypothetical €8.50 bid offers 18.9% upside, against 21.4% standalone downside. We would stay on the sidelines pending a formal proposal.


Ardian & Oak Holdings / INWIT: A Towering Question

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

<ul>
<li>NAV rose 17% YTD to SEK223.3bn, while Industrivärden C returned 30% versus 11% for SIXRX, despite a modest NAV decline in Q3.</li>
<li>Our updated SOTP gives NAV of SEK501.2/share; C shares now trade broadly at NAV, extending the disappearance of Industrivärden’s traditional holdco discount.</li>
<li>Industrivärden will be conventionally taxed from 2027, but participation-exemption rules suggest the impact on its major existing holdings may be limited.</li>
</ul>


NAV rose 17% YTD to SEK223.3bn, while Industrivärden C returned 30% versus 11% for SIXRX, despite a modest NAV decline in Q3.
Our updated SOTP gives NAV of SEK501.2/share; C shares now trade broadly at NAV, extending the disappearance of Industrivärden’s traditional holdco discount.
Industrivärden will be conventionally taxed from 2027, but participation-exemption rules suggest the impact on its major existing holdings may be limited.


Recordati is an international pharmaceutical group engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceuticals. The company focuses on specialty and primary care products, including treatments for cardiovascular, urological, and gastrointestinal conditions, as well as a dedicated rare disease business unit. Recordati was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

<ul>
<li>Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.</li>
<li>Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.</li>
<li>At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.</li>
</ul>


Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.
Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.
At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.


CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits