Daily Brief Financials: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Perpetual Ltd, AEI CapForce II Investment and more

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into “Oils/Gas“; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Diversified Metals“. Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Woodside Energy (WDS US), Wesfarmers (WES AU), and REA Group (REA AU).

• Following its curious A$22.07/share self-destructing NBIO on the 15th July, EQT has returned with a A$22.50/share NBIO for Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), by way of a Scheme. 
• That’s a 4% bump to its initial NBIO of A$21.64/share on the 1st July, which was rejected as being inadequate. $22.07/share was similarly deemed inadequate.
• PPT’s board is assessing the revised tilt. Optically, terms appear fair. Ot at least sufficient to engage. A$22.50/share is a 45.2% premium to undisturbed. 

• Stretched Valuations Fueling Record Bearish Positioning: CBA’s valuation at 25.2x estimated FY26 earnings and 4.0x book value represents a historic three-standard-deviation premium over its peers and historical averages. This valuation mismatch, rather than immediate distress, has driven hedge funds to accumulate a record AUD 11 billion short interest across the Australian major banks, with CBA as the primary target.
• Mortgage Channel Restructuring Defending a Squeezed NIM: To counter structural margin compression—with NIM falling from 2.08% in FY25 to 2.04% in 1H26—CBA has aggressively pivoted to direct/proprietary lending, which now accounts for 66% to 68% of new flows. By squeezing broker-originated flows down to 32%, CBA is eliminating broker commissions on loans that are 20% to 30% less profitable than proprietary volume.
• Capital Constraints and Capital Efficiency Trade-offs: While CBA maintains a robust 12.3% CET1 ratio (11.6% post-dividend) against APRA’s 10.25% floor, capital management is highly constrained. Running a $1 billion buyback program at current multiples is highly dilutive to book value per share, prompting executive treasury to pace execution, having completed only $300 million by mid-2025 before extending the timeline.

• Pre-IPO structural concessions signal deep pricing pressures: To counter severe investor skepticism in the 2026 APAC SPAC market, AEI CapForce II’s July 24, 2026 S-1/A amendment added full warrants, boosted trust funding to 100.3%, and increased the sponsor’s at-risk purchase to $2,630,300, signaling intense pressure to finally price the long-delayed IPO.
• Sponsor ties to PRC/HK create persistent regulatory friction despite explicit geographic exclusions: Although AEI CapForce II explicitly excludes target companies in China, Hong Kong, and Macau to bypass SEC and CSRC regulatory hurdles, the sponsor’s physical presence in Shenzhen and Hong Kong and executives’ local connections still trigger CFIUS-type scrutiny and valuation discounts among premium Southeast Asian tech targets.
• Southeast Asian telehealth and e-commerce targets face a harsh path to profitability that undercuts macro CAGR projections: While regional e-commerce is projected to hit $410 billion by 2030, actual investable targets are scarce and struggle with weak unit economics and low conversion rates. Any hasty de-SPAC transaction post-IPO will likely settle for lower-tier assets with questionable long-term viability.

• AEI CapForce II Investment Corp is a blank check company seeking a target in Southeast Asia and APAC’s ‘new economy’ or high growth industries, excluding China.
• Southeast Asia’s internet economy is projected to reach $1480.47 Billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 20.83% from 2026-2034.
• Inability to complete an initial business combination within the prescribed timeframe could lead to company liquidation.

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