In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Rebound as Higher Yields Keep Pressure on Markets
- This Week in AI (Aug 16-22): Mysterious Ox Alpha Model; Stripe Buys OpenRouter; YMTC’s IPO
- US$ Weakness: Ranking the Winners and Losers in Semiconductor Memory
- China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (17-21 Aug)
Ohayo Japan | Rebound as Higher Yields Keep Pressure on Markets
- US equities rebounded Friday, but weekly losses persisted as inflation concerns pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 4.73% and 30-year yields to 5.2%.
- Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings will test the resilience of the AI trade, with strong spending benefiting the chipmaker but lofty expectations and valuation leaving little room for disappointment.
- Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3% despite recovering sharply intraday, while TOPIX gained 0.2%; shipping, mining and oil stocks outperformed.
This Week in AI (Aug 16-22): Mysterious Ox Alpha Model; Stripe Buys OpenRouter; YMTC’s IPO
- We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&A this week: Ox Alpha appeared on OpenRouter and Stripe agreed to buy OpenRouter.
- DeepSeek added vision to V4 Flash, OpenAI paused Astra RL work, and Alibaba and Baidu reported faster AI-linked growth.
- YMTC moved toward a Shanghai IPO, Nvidia backed OpenAI capacity, and Anthropic added IPO banks and credit capacity.
US$ Weakness: Ranking the Winners and Losers in Semiconductor Memory
- Margins are the FX airbag. Memory is 100% dollar-billed but locally costed; at 76–86% margins, earnings are less currency-sensitive than at any point in 20 years.
- The FX dispersion is 20x. Micron sits at −0.15x beta versus Winbond at −3.03x; a 10% dollar decline can erase Samsung’s 42% upside.
- Korean Q3 consensus has not caught the won rally. A 6.1% monthly appreciation implies KRW4.6tn operating drag and c.KRW3tn FX losses for SK Hynix.
China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (17-21 Aug)
- Genscript delivered a strong set of 1H26 results, driven by AI demands. Kelun Bio, CSPC, Sino Biopharm delivered positive 1H26 results, thanks to revenue ramp-up from innovative drugs and BD
- Hengrui missed its 2Q26 results, dragged down by generic drugs (-17% QoQ to RMB2.3bn) and moderating growth from oncology segment (-6% YoY). Yet, we are positive on its pipeline progress
- Other updates from this week include Zai Lab/Argenx, Hutchmed/AstraZeneca, and EyePoint/Betta Pharma…
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