In today’s briefing:
- ASIA CYBERSECURITY PLAYS: How to Make Money Before the Apocalypse !!
- AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams
- Asian Equities Great Divide: REIM Premium Vs Legacy Developer Discount
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Sep-2026): APAC Real Estate Updates: People News September 2026
- Ten Messages from the Past
ASIA CYBERSECURITY PLAYS: How to Make Money Before the Apocalypse !!
- Asia’s cybersecurity companies will benefit from escalating AI fear-mongering and actual security breaches that are increasing in number and sophistication. US cybersecurity firms have rallied since the Mythos breach.
- Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) and Digital Arts (2326 JP) have returns above WACC, while Ahnlab Inc (053800 KS) and Systex Corp (6214 TT) shares have recently advanced.
- Since 2023, China has implemented AI safety measures, progressively shifting from controlling content and labor market impacts to ensuring reliability, preventing loss of model control, and ensuring human autonomy.
AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams
- The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.
- Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.
- The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.
Asian Equities Great Divide: REIM Premium Vs Legacy Developer Discount
- Structural Repricing: Markets actively reward asset-light real estate managers with premium multiples exceeding 1.0x P/B, valuing their predictable, annuity-like fee-related earnings and infinite platform scalability.
- Developer Distress: Legacy balance-sheet developers suffer steep 50% discounts to RNAV, penalized for cyclical earnings, rising debt burdens, and severe margin compression from punitive housing regulations.
- Pair Trade Strategy: Long CapitaLand Investment for aggressive fund expansion and fee growth, against short City Developments, which remains heavily anchored to capital-intensive residential landbanks facing tight regulatory deadlines.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Sep-2026): APAC Real Estate Updates: People News September 2026
- On September 21, 2026, Tokyo Tatemono and UBS invested $859 million in an Australian industrial partnership.
- MA Financial acquired a 50% stake in a Melbourne mall for $233 million and launched a retail fund.
- Ichigo Hotel REIT faced an 11% profit drop due to Japan’s tourism slowdown amid local demand challenges.
Ten Messages from the Past
- My articles typically follow this structure: Pick an economic or financial market topic that is controversial and important.
- And then provide a perspective that is differentiated and ideally unique. Today’s article will be a bit different.
- I will present older articles again that I consider evergreens with a much longer shelf life than others.
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