Daily Brief Consumer: Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co, Naspers, Christian Dior SE, Evolution, Indo Oil Perkasa, Yupi Indo Jelly Gum, Capri Holdings , Daytona Corp, Oriental Watch and more

• CVC and NSSK are reportedly proposing a buyout of Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP) worth over JPY500bn, possibly with the founding family. That implies JPY6,406 a share, a 9% premium.
• While the offer appears attractive relative to precedent and peer multiples, Oasis, the largest shareholder, is unlikely to back it.
• At the rumoured offer, Oasis will get a 17% return on its average cost, which is modest. The Taisho privatisation precedent suggests Oasis will push for a higher offer. 

• Prosus NV (PRX NA) is still coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus Tencent (700 HK). 
• Preceding my comments on Prosus/Tencent/Naspers (NPN SJ) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Arnault family proposes a cash OPR at 95% of CDI’s look-through NAV, based on LVMH’s one-month VWAP ahead of the December EGM.
• At €425.40, CDI trades at 91.7% of current NAV, versus the proposed 95% exit level, implying 3.6% gross upside at current LVMH prices.
• Long CDI / short ~1.11 LVMH hedges most of the initial market exposure, with the short reduced progressively as the December VWAP fixes.

• Last night, news came out that Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP) had received a ~¥500bn buyout proposal from a PE Fund consortium of CVC, NSSK, and the founding family.
• Kobayashi was at the center of a beni koji (red rice yeast) supplements contamination scandal revealed in 2024. The Chairman and CEO from the family resigned.
• Activist Oasis Management built a stake 2+yrs ago and have steadily increased it to 14%. They want the founding family influence out. This isn’t as easy as one likes.

• Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
• What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
• The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.

• Sourcing Structure Overhaul Required: PT Indo Oil Perkasa Tbk (OILS) managed to improve gross margins to 7.3% in 6M26, achieving a gross profit of Rp 53.4 billion. However, the company remains structurally vulnerable to raw material volatility due to high reliance on a single primary supplier for over 50% of its copra feedstock, limiting its ability to hedge cost fluctuations dynamically over the next 4 quarters.
• PT Indo Kelapa Perkasa Divestment Was Capital Preservation: The April 19, 2025 share divestment of PT Indo Kelapa Perkasa (IKP), which reduced OILS’ ownership to 52%, was not a strategic exit but a necessary move to share the Rp 6.0 billion Capex burden with strategic partners amid a highly constrained corporate cash position of Rp 14.4 billion.
• Market Volatility Driven by Float illiquidity and IR Gaps: The Unusual Market Activity (UMA) issued by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on September 8, 2026, highlights OILS’ systemic retail-driven volatility. With 47.85% tightly held by the family holding entity (PT Mandalindo Putra Perkasa) and a lean 35-person corporate structure, the management team dedicates less than 5% of its time to investor relations, leaving the stock vulnerable to speculative local trading groups.

• PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk (YUPI IJ) is Southeast Asia’s premier gummy confectionery manufacturer, commanding dominant domestic market share in Indonesia and an established export footprint spanning over 50 countries.
• The company demonstrates exceptional profitability and cash conversion, boasting FY25 gross and net profit margins of 34.07% and 20.88% respectively, alongside an annualized free cash flow (FCFE) generation of IDR 821.6 billion and a 5.55% dividend yield.
• Trading at IDR 1,280—a substantial discount to its IDR 2,390 IPO price—YUPI presents an attractive risk-reward profile backed by institutional sponsor Affinity Equity Partners, ongoing capacity expansion at its Nganjuk facility, and steady premiumization into functional confectionery.

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• Capri Holdings is back at the center of takeover speculation, nearly two years after regulators derailed Tapestry’s proposed $8.5 billion acquisition at $57 per share.
• This time, however, the company looks considerably different.
• Versace has been sold, Michael Kors is undergoing a major repositioning, Jimmy Choo is gaining momentum, and Capri’s balance sheet has been dramatically deleveraged.

Key points (machine generated)

• Daytona’s interim report shows consolidated revenue of 7,866 million yen, a 6.9% increase year-on-year.
• The company reported an operating profit of 1,007 million yen (up 18.3%) and an interim net profit of 712 million yen (up 21.4%).
• Daytona is expanding its motorcycle business while also exploring new markets, including outdoor products and reuse initiatives.

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• This follows up on our piece, Ticking Different: A Comparison of the World’s Listed Luxury Watch Retailers With Exposure to Rolex, where we follow five listed luxury watch retailers.
• This is an update on the names as well as a valuation pit stop, heading into the earnings season for a few of the March-end companies 
• We like Oriental Watch (398 HK) for its net cash position (~60% of market cap) and 12% dividend yield, and The Hour Glass (HG SP) for its buybacks and superior metrics.