In today’s briefing:
- Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough
- Anthropic’s Leaked S-1 Vs. China’s AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question
- Ohayo Japan | PCE Boosts Tech
- Singapore Market Roundup (30-Sep-2026): JP Morgan: MAS’s EQDP fund may enhance SMIDs’ performance.
- Ken Griffin Portfolio: Citadel Top Holdings (Q2 2026)
- Lifelong Learning Economy: Structural Demand, Selective Winners
- Japan and North America: a cultural comparison
- 3 Mergers and 1 Liquidation in the Danger Zone
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Sep-2026): KKR secures $1B for Helix AI infrastructure.
- Higher Interest Rates: Winners And Losers In The Hedge Fund Industry
Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough
- BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.
- Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.
- The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.
Anthropic’s Leaked S-1 Vs. China’s AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question
- Anthropic’s leaked S-1 shows revenue scaling $400m (FY24) to $4.6bn (FY25) to $11.5bn in Q2 2026 alone — but $518bn of non-cancelable compute commitments dwarf the last $965bn private mark.
- Anthropic’s ~1.8x operating-loss-to-revenue ratio beats Zhipu’s ~6.5x and MiniMax’s ~3.2x — better unit economics than either listed China AI name, though customer concentration remains the key risk.
- No formal call on Anthropic or OpenAI — IPO timeline and audited financials aren’t out yet; we reiterate BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340) and NEUTRAL Z.AI/Zhipu (FV HK$1,000).
Ohayo Japan | PCE Boosts Tech
- US Stocks closed mixed as cooler-than-expected September inflation supported technology stocks
- Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield climbing to 5.3%.
- The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge rose 3.4% in August, below the 3.7% expected, reinforcing expectations that policymakers can wait before hiking rates
Singapore Market Roundup (30-Sep-2026): JP Morgan: MAS’s EQDP fund may enhance SMIDs’ performance.
- JP Morgan: MAS’s new EQDP fund could boost SMIDs’ performance.
- Lim & Tan rates Aedge Group as ‘buy’ with a target price of 29.5 cents.
- UMS sees more dividend potential after RM450 million placement, says Citi.
Ken Griffin Portfolio: Citadel Top Holdings (Q2 2026)
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Ken Griffin’s Citadel reported $875.01 billion in U.S. securities on its latest 13F, a figure that makes the hedge fund’s portfolio appear far larger than its actual equity holdings.
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Roughly four-fifths of the filing consists of options, leaving $171.76 billion in disclosed equity positions.
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The distinction matters because several different figures are used to describe Citadel’s size.
Lifelong Learning Economy: Structural Demand, Selective Winners
- Private education is evolving from a school-age service into a broader lifelong learning economy spanning early childhood, formal education and career-long reskilling.
- Four structural forces underpin this shift: (1) rising household spending power supporting private education demand; (2) shorter skills cycles creating recurring reskilling needs; (3) employer funding broadening the market for workforce training; and (4) digital delivery expanding access while lowering the cost of learning.
- These drivers are extending education demand across different stages of life and beyond the traditional classroom.
Japan and North America: a cultural comparison
- My apologies for the radio silence, I recently just got back from the the East coast of the North America. As always it was enlightning as much as it was inspiring.
- It was great to be there to see old faces as well as new faces this time – some of which have I’ve gotten to meet thanks to their interest in my writings (Thank you!).
- It was non-stop pretty much over the last 3 weeks but I thought I’d finally stop and reflect on what stood out the most for me.
3 Mergers and 1 Liquidation in the Danger Zone
- I mentioned this liquidation as one to watch a few months ago.
- The board had just approved a plan of liquidation and guided to $29.73 to $37.69 a share of total distributions.
- Shareholders approved the liquidation in June.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Sep-2026): KKR secures $1B for Helix AI infrastructure.
- KKR has received a substantial $1 billion investment from Samsung to enhance its Helix AI infrastructure strategy.
- Goodman has decided to cancel a $560 million data center project in Sydney after gaining approval for a nearby development.
- Rava’s Dash Living has successfully acquired a Shinjuku apartment tower for $241 million amid various market changes.
Higher Interest Rates: Winners And Losers In The Hedge Fund Industry
- The investment environment has changed dramatically over the past several years.
- After more than a decade of near zero short term interest rates, investors can once again earn a meaningful return on cash and short-term Treasury securities.
- As of September 2026, the Federal Reserve ‘s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00% with more rate increases expected.
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