All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 25
0

Daily Brief United States: Epam Systems, Gold, Visa, Bitcoin, Qualcomm Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Pounding the Table on EPAM
  • Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence
  • Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering
  • Altcoin Dominance Hits 4-Month High
  • Qualcomm: A Sleeper Stock For Potentially Big AI Gains

Pounding the Table on EPAM

By Value Punks

  • As most AI heavyweight stocks (e.g. Nvidia, Microsoft) have already soared, some investors may be left feeling that they have missed the AI bandwagon.
  • We believe there’s a delayed “AI winner” which the market is still sleeping on: EPAM Systems.
  • With the stock back at ~$230, the risk-reward here is highly attractive in our view.

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

By The Commodity Report

  • Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.

  • Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.

  • It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds.
  • The expectations for the upcoming quarter are high and the second half of the fiscal year is also likely to be more challenging.
  • This creates certain risks for the share price that are not necessarily priced in at the moment.

Altcoin Dominance Hits 4-Month High

By Kaiko

  • BTC volume dominance has slipped 8% since the start of July following the Ripple ruling, which instantly caused altcoin markets to rally.
  • BTC dominance across the top 25 centralized exchanges is currently at its lowest level since April, at 27%.
  • Offshore exchanges have experienced a more extreme drop in BTC trading activity, partially due to a spike in South Korean altcoin volume.

Qualcomm: A Sleeper Stock For Potentially Big AI Gains

By Kevin George

  • Qualcomm has announced a partnership with Meta to run the Llama 2 Large Language Model on mobile devices and PCs from 2024 on.
  • The deal could open up a new wave of LLM usage for everyday consumers on mobile, PC, and VR/AR headsets, potentially boosting Qualcomm’s market position.
  • In the year’s artificial intelligence gold rush, Nvidia (NVDA) surged to a $1 trillion market cap.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Japan: Rakuten Securities, JPY, SCREEN Holdings, Oriental Land, Santen Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case
  • Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda
  • Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Export Restrictions Add to Uncertainty
  • Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term
  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Aims to Ride Patent Cliff Through Focus on Improving Profitability

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

By Andreas Steno

  • The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.
  • In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.
  • Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Export Restrictions Add to Uncertainty

By Scott Foster

  • Japan’s new restrictions on exports of semiconductor production equipment to China are a potential threat to Screen.
  • TSMC’s announcement that 2023 capex is likely to be at the low end of the forecast range is another negative. 
  • Share price consolidation should continue until guidance is lowered or verified.

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • There is a possibility that Oriental Land (4661 JP)‘s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.
  • However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company’s guidance of ¥122bn.
  • We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Aims to Ride Patent Cliff Through Focus on Improving Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) expects generic competition for mainstay product in Japan in FY24, while overseas business should continue stable growth. The company guided for FY24 revenue of ¥273B (-2%).
  • Due to the absence of impairment loss, Santen is expected to report operating profit of ¥32B in FY24 from an operating loss of ¥3B in FY23.
  • Santen has unveiled new medium-term management plan, which calls for revenue of ¥280B, core operating profit of ¥56B, core ROE ratio of 13%, and core EPS growth rate of 10%+.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief ESG: Azelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Azelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Azelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Azelis’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Social pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Altcoin Dominance Hits 4-Month High and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Altcoin Dominance Hits 4-Month High

Altcoin Dominance Hits 4-Month High

By Kaiko

  • BTC volume dominance has slipped 8% since the start of July following the Ripple ruling, which instantly caused altcoin markets to rally.
  • BTC dominance across the top 25 centralized exchanges is currently at its lowest level since April, at 27%.
  • Offshore exchanges have experienced a more extreme drop in BTC trading activity, partially due to a spike in South Korean altcoin volume.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Credit: Vedanta Resources – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results (Vedanta Ltd) – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vedanta Resources – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results (Vedanta Ltd) – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, Innergex Renewable Energy

Vedanta Resources – Earnings Flash – Q1 FY 2023-24 Results (Vedanta Ltd) – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Vedanta Ltd’s Q1/23-24 results were weak in our view, as expected. The company is facing challenges from lower commodity prices and the large debt-servicing and repayment requirements from parent Vedanta Resources. Gross debt and net debt increased significantly, while the cash declined materially. The low and declining cash position will limit VEDL’s dividend-upstreaming capacity this fiscal year.

Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, Innergex Renewable Energy

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!
  • China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule
  • [Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  S&P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus
  • JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure
  • NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) – First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.

China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule

By Shawn Yang

  • Baba: Alibaba’s annual report, Chinese media discussions and our thoughts
  • BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing (-)
  • BEKE: China reinforce the city village reconstruction policy, which is different with Shantytown Renovation project（+)

[Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots

By Shawn Yang

  • We compiled the public sector bidding result of medical robots in the past one and half years. 
  • Result shows market leaders reinforcing their shares in laparoscopic and orthopaedic robots but in neurosurgery a new challenger has risen
  • We reiterate the view domestic substitution will likely occur in areas like puncture, natural orifice and microsurgery, which will require new core competencies in machine vision, haptic feedback and AR/VR.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities again inched higher this week with the S&P 500 +0.65% and the MSCI World Index +0.60%.

  • The S&P 500 is now within 6% of an all-time high as investors become increasingly confident that inflation has cooled while corporate earnings remain strong.

  • The Russell 2000 climbed 1.53% last week but remains 18% below its 2021 peak. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Macro: Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda
  • US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check
  • A Key US Macro Indicator Rose the Most Since Covid but Still Points to 20% Downside in Equities
  • EM by EM #14 7 EM Charts for the “Central bank Bonanza”
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ace Hardware’s Spike, Erajaya’s Ramp-Up, and Leader Energy
  • Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence
  • Sterling U-Turn

Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

By Andreas Steno

  • The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.
  • In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.
  • Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check

By Said Desaque

  • Easy comparisons contributed to lower US inflation in 2023 H1, but the backdrop in H2 is less favourable, thereby making the Fed wary of premature dovish policy pivots.
  • Economic soft-landings have never been good for corporate profits, thereby helping to explain why analysts have set such a low bar for the 2023 Q2 reporting season. 
  • Glaring inconsistencies are embedded in the 2024 outlooks for corporate profits and Fed policy, notably resource utilisation in the US economy remains too elevated to quickly cull inflation pressures.

A Key US Macro Indicator Rose the Most Since Covid but Still Points to 20% Downside in Equities

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The US Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) ‘explains’ 95% of the level of US GDP. After a substantial increase in June, the TTI does not point to an immediate US recession.
  • Given its robust relationship with US stock markets, we derive ‘fair value’ estimates for the Dow Jones Transportation and S&P 500 Index, revealing ample downside for both indices.
  • In addition, a simple TTI-based investment strategy using these fair value estimates results in a superior Sharpe ratio, explained by higher returns and lower risk.

EM by EM #14 7 EM Charts for the “Central bank Bonanza”

By Emil Moller

  • Main takeaways:We don’t like assets overly sensitive to USD strength The Carry currencies will start to lose tailwinds soonStill plenty of cheap opportunities in pockets of EM- we will likely add trades here in the coming days on our live Portfolio, see hereRead below for our overall perspective on EM’s in this week’s Central Bank BonanzaEurozone numbers keep going from bad to worst and funds keep stagging to their USD bear bets.
  • Despite having burned our fingers on the timing we still think that markets will be in for quite an awakening in this space as the recessionary data keeps coming in.
  • After the horrendous PMI prints in Germany in particular its perhaps worth zooming out into the bigger picture here:Chart 1: PMIs across the worldFirstly it is evident that a slowdown is occurring, particularly in the manufacturing sector, and there are indications that this trend is gradually affecting the services sector as well, especially in developed countries.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ace Hardware’s Spike, Erajaya’s Ramp-Up, and Leader Energy

By Angus Mackintosh

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

By The Commodity Report

  • Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.

  • Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.

  • It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Sterling U-Turn

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The YoY inflation rate in the UK increased by 7.9%, which was better than the expected 8.2%.
  • There has been some overreaction due to positioning, leading to impulse moves in UK rates, Yield Curve, EURGP and GBPUSD.
  • The GBPUSD has experienced an impulse drop, but it awaits signals of a trend reversal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief ECM: Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case
  • LianLian DigiTech Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Qiniu Pre-IPO – Widening Losses and Dwindling Market Share
  • Robosense Technology Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Whole Lot of Potential

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

LianLian DigiTech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lianlian DigiTech  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and JP Morgan.
  • LianLian DigiTech is a digital technology company that provides a range of digital payment services and value-added services to customers in China and around the world.
  • The firm ranked first among all independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost & Sullivan.

Qiniu Pre-IPO – Widening Losses and Dwindling Market Share

By Ethan Aw

  • Qiniu Limited (1045102D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Qiniu is an intelligent audiovisual service provider. According to iResearch, the firm is the third largest audiovisual platform as a service (PaaS) provider in China in terms of FY22 revenue.
  • Qiniu’s revenue has primarily been driven by its MPaaS segment over the track record period. However, the firm’s losses are still widening while its balance sheet health deteriorates. 

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Whole Lot of Potential

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: June & July 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: June & July 2023
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in September
  • GS AM Consortium/ Kahoot!: Agreed Fair Offer

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: June & July 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in June and July 2023.
  • We provide a list of 38 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in June and July 2023.
  • The top four market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, Hyundai Elevator, and SFA.

KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
  • We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
  • The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes under both the existing methodology and the proposed new methodology.

FXI Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in September

By Brian Freitas

GS AM Consortium/ Kahoot!: Agreed Fair Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Kahoot! ASA (KAHOOT NO) saw better times on the stock market during the pandemic. To revive fortunes, GS AM has enlisted top shareholders and offers NOK 35/share “best and final” price.
  • This represents 29.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 3.3% FCF yield. I believe the offer price is fair. Interloper risk seems low: a competing bid should come above NOK 38.5, surely overpaying.
  • Spread is 0.74%/2.15% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 November). With better opportunities elsewhere, I would wait for the share price to come under NOK 34.5 to open a position.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Travelsky (696): Time to Fly and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Travelsky (696): Time to Fly
  • Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Export Restrictions Add to Uncertainty
  • Infineon Technologies: Top European Semi Player At A Discount.
  • [Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization
  • Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition
  • Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK) Vs Pharmaron Beijing (3759.HK) – Deep Dive the Logic and the Outlook
  • Pounding the Table on EPAM
  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Aims to Ride Patent Cliff Through Focus on Improving Profitability
  • Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

Travelsky (696): Time to Fly

By Henry Soediarko

  • Share price of Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) is still down YTD as investors are still overly cautious on Chinese travel data. 
  • YTD operational data shows that the number of flights processed is very close to the pre-COVID era. 
  • The company announced a profit alert recently, that should help to boost share price. 

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Export Restrictions Add to Uncertainty

By Scott Foster

  • Japan’s new restrictions on exports of semiconductor production equipment to China are a potential threat to Screen.
  • TSMC’s announcement that 2023 capex is likely to be at the low end of the forecast range is another negative. 
  • Share price consolidation should continue until guidance is lowered or verified.

Infineon Technologies: Top European Semi Player At A Discount.

By Alexis Dwek

  • Infineon benefits from a strong market position in an industry with high barriers to entry.
  • The Company’s backlog of €36bn, representing over 2x annual revenues, reduces the impact of end-market volatility. 
  • Silicon carbide, the material for semiconductor wafers, is becoming more prevalent. Infineon is well on track to have a material cost advantage and better technology versus its silicon carbide competitors.

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

By Shawn Yang

  • We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. 
  • However, most of these catalysts appear to be minor. BILI management is fully aware of the challenges in the industry.
  • We maintain a SELL rating, and investors may consider shorting BILI after <Uma Musume> is launched.

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • There is a possibility that Oriental Land (4661 JP)‘s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.
  • However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company’s guidance of ¥122bn.
  • We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Japan’s semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.
  • Apple is reportedly telling suppliers that its flagship iPhone volumes will be similar to last year.
  • Hon Hai acquires 50% stake in German auto chassis maker, marking a significant expansion in its EV manufacturing efforts.

Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK) Vs Pharmaron Beijing (3759.HK) – Deep Dive the Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Understanding the essential differences in business characteristics of CRO and CDMO could help investors better understand the differences between Asymchem and Pharmaron in terms of investment logic, financial performance, and prospects.
  • Since Pharmaron didn’t obtain COVID-19 big orders, it would maintain normal revenue growth in 2023. However, increasing labor costs and uncontrollable investment business would lead to unsatisfactory net profit performance.
  • Asymchem’s performance would be disappointing in 2023. However, its growth momentum is expected to restore after it digest the impact of COVID-19 orders. Then, Asymchem’s valuation could surpass Pharmaron afterwards. 

Pounding the Table on EPAM

By Value Punks

  • As most AI heavyweight stocks (e.g. Nvidia, Microsoft) have already soared, some investors may be left feeling that they have missed the AI bandwagon.
  • We believe there’s a delayed “AI winner” which the market is still sleeping on: EPAM Systems.
  • With the stock back at ~$230, the risk-reward here is highly attractive in our view.

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Aims to Ride Patent Cliff Through Focus on Improving Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) expects generic competition for mainstay product in Japan in FY24, while overseas business should continue stable growth. The company guided for FY24 revenue of ¥273B (-2%).
  • Due to the absence of impairment loss, Santen is expected to report operating profit of ¥32B in FY24 from an operating loss of ¥3B in FY23.
  • Santen has unveiled new medium-term management plan, which calls for revenue of ¥280B, core operating profit of ¥56B, core ROE ratio of 13%, and core EPS growth rate of 10%+.

Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds.
  • The expectations for the upcoming quarter are high and the second half of the fiscal year is also likely to be more challenging.
  • This creates certain risks for the share price that are not necessarily priced in at the moment.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free