Smartkarma Daily Briefs

They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO.

Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)

By Douglas Kim

Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).
We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins.
Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO

By Special Situation Investments

Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.

VEON US: Pakistan Towers Sale Frees Capital for Digital Growth in Core Market Ahead of Ukraine IPO

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON last week announced it has secured regulatory approvals for its tower asset partnership with Engro Corp in Pakistan, unlocking US$563 million in value.
Cash portion of funds will be paid in tranches and received in Pakistan, with flexibility to upstream capital or reinvest locally.
Transaction supports VEON’s ongoing transformation at the Group level and digital growth strategy in Pakistan while offering a roadmap for similar value creation in Ukraine.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More

Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.

Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Increasing Accuracy in Elderly Care Monitoring

By Water Tower Research

Surpassed initial accuracy milestone in elderly care. Ainos provided new AI Nose data in the elderly care co- development project, reaching ~85% accuracy in excretion odor detection.
The updated accuracy rate is an improvement over the recently met internal milestone of 80%.
Accuracy improved with data-driven AI machine learning. AI Nose achieved 85% accuracy based on 254 subject events in Japan and Taiwan, leading to 2,119 sample entries for statistical evaluation.

EVAX: Grant For Polio Vaccine Announced

By Zacks Small Cap Research

EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of AI technology.
The company announced it received a grant to develop a new and unique vaccine with the goal of eradicating polio.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.
Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI

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Jun 04

Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Slide Insurance Holdings, NSE Nifty Bank Index, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, State Bank Of India, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I, Cofinimmo SA, China Jinmao Holdings, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Interactive Brokers (IBKR US),Duolingo (DUOL US) and EMCOR (EME US) are the main candidates for addition at review to replace Enphase Energy (ENPH US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US).
Cheniere Energy (LNG US) and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for the replacement of the acquisition of Ansys (ANSS US) which is anticipated end of June.
There is a possibility of zero S&P500 changes at the review due to candidates scoring low in market cap and sector balance.

Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer

They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO.

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO

Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

By Special Situation Investments

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More

Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.
EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.
Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

US treasuries fell and yields rose yesterday, amid renewed US-China trade tensions and a large supply of corporate issuances.
Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 4 bps to 3.94% and 4.44%, respectively.
Equities climbed, led by tech stocks, after the White House indicated that US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week.

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

By Victor Galliano

Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms

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Jun 04

Daily Brief Singapore: Jardine Matheson Holdings, IFBH and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail
IFBH Ltd Pre- IPO – Growth Driven by Coconut Water Products Amid High Concentration Risks

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail

Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s 77.8%-held DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has sold its entire 22.2% stake in Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) for ~US$283mn to “support its capital allocation strategy“.
Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

IFBH Ltd Pre- IPO – Growth Driven by Coconut Water Products Amid High Concentration Risks

By Akshat Shah

IFBH (IFBH HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nexchip Semiconductor , Mediatek Inc, Xiaomi Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Circle Internet Group, Lens Technology , Plover Bay Technologies, VEON and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected
Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction
TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand
Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)
Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.
[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver
Lens Technology H-Share Listing: First Look
Plover Bay (1523 HK): Preview On Earnings For H1 2025
VEON US: Pakistan Towers Sale Frees Capital for Digital Growth in Core Market Ahead of Ukraine IPO

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact

There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 2.7x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) and sell 1.5x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH).
The delete has outperformed the inclusion this year. With 8 days left to implementation of the changes and decent impact, there could be a short-term reversal.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction

By Ming Lu

In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY.
Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.
The stock has an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$66 for the next twelve months.

TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

By Nicolas Baratte

A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%.
It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip’s performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server.
TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It’s already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.

Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)

By Douglas Kim

Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).
We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins.
Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown.

Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

By Nicolas Baratte

IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026.
The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.
I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver

By Eric Wen

Xiaomi reported C1Q25 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net profit 2.0%, 41% and 57% vs. our estimate.
While there are a few product positives supporting outperformance, the main driver is still trade-in subsidy (TIS), which will start to end in C3Q25;
We continue to view Xiaomi as having an enviable market position as a “Huawei without the sanctions”, its valuation has also become very rich.

Lens Technology H-Share Listing: First Look

Shenzhen-Listed iPhone glass supplier Lens Technology (300433 CH) has filed for a listing on HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of around US$1-1.5bn.
The company is heavily reliant on smartphones (mainly iPhones) however has diversified into other verticals. While this has helped grow revenues, margins have continued to decline.
Though some exemptions have been given, the potential for further US reciprocal tariffs could increase costs and disrupt supply chains impacting Lens.

Plover Bay (1523 HK): Preview On Earnings For H1 2025

By Sameer Taneja

We expect the Trump tariffs announced on Taiwan (base for suppliers/production of Plover Bay) to slightly affect growth rates for H1 FY25 and estimate a 15%/13% YoY revenue/profit growth number.
A 32% tariff was imposed on Taiwan suppliers; however, electronic items, including routers, were subsequently excluded. Nonetheless, overall business sentiment had already been negatively impacted before these adjustments.
Trading at 19.4x FY25e earnings (assuming a reversion to 15% growth), the stock is somewhat fairly valued, although we love this name’s execution and long-term track record.

VEON US: Pakistan Towers Sale Frees Capital for Digital Growth in Core Market Ahead of Ukraine IPO

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON last week announced it has secured regulatory approvals for its tower asset partnership with Engro Corp in Pakistan, unlocking US$563 million in value.
Cash portion of funds will be paid in tranches and received in Pakistan, with flexibility to upstream capital or reinvest locally.
Transaction supports VEON’s ongoing transformation at the Group level and digital growth strategy in Pakistan while offering a roadmap for similar value creation in Ukraine.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief Industrials: Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd., Makino Milling Machine Co, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen, Action Construction Equipment and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame
StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail
Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment A/H Listing – Market Leader but Has Been Facing Industry Headwinds
Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame

By Arun George

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail

Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s 77.8%-held DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has sold its entire 22.2% stake in Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) for ~US$283mn to “support its capital allocation strategy“.
Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment A/H Listing – Market Leader but Has Been Facing Industry Headwinds

By Sumeet Singh

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH) aims to raise around US$400m in its H-share listing.
WLIE is a global platform-based intelligent equipment enterprise, offering intelligent equipment and solutions to a wide range of emerging and high-end manufacturing industries.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN) achieved record revenue and profits in FY25 and Q4, demonstrating strong execution and margin expansion.
Secured single largest order from Ministry of Defence, boosting future defense contribution and supporting Make in India.
Management is cautiously optimistic for FY26 due to temporary factors like BS5 price impact, but confident in medium to long-term growth prospects.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief India: Solar Industries India, NSE Nifty Bank Index, State Bank Of India, Nmdc Ltd, Action Construction Equipment, Dollar Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround
Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

By Rahul Jain

Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.

Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN) achieved record revenue and profits in FY25 and Q4, demonstrating strong execution and margin expansion.
Secured single largest order from Ministry of Defence, boosting future defense contribution and supporting Make in India.
Management is cautiously optimistic for FY26 due to temporary factors like BS5 price impact, but confident in medium to long-term growth prospects.

Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Dollar Industries (DOLLAR IN) reported modest revenue growth in FY25 amidst a challenging market, with strong emphasis on retail expansion and brand-building initiatives.
Despite a de-growth in sales volume, strategic investments in exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) and a renewed focus on premiumization are crucial for long-term growth.
The company’s resilience in maintaining margins despite volume pressures, coupled with its aggressive retail strategy, signals a potential turnaround as market conditions improve.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, BYD, PointsBet Holdings , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, IFBH, Primo Global, Li Auto , Dollar Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder
[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer
PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues
KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory
IFBH Ltd Pre- IPO – Growth Driven by Coconut Water Products Amid High Concentration Risks
Primo Global Holdings: A Bridal Business with Long Presence, Short on Performance
[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches
Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

By Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

By Arun George

PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) has disclosed a revised Mixi Inc (2121 JP) offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close.
Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.
Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.

PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues

Back on the 26th Feb, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with MIXI (2121 JP), at $1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
An approach from BETR Entertainment (BBT AU), PointsBet’s key rival, was initially rebuffed. On the 12th May, both parties subsequently entered into mutual due diligence after Betr finagled terms.
MIXI has now bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Scheme Meeting has been delayed to the 25th June. DD continues to be carried out by PointsBet and Betr.

KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory

By Nico Rosti

Lee Jae-myung’s is projected to win the Presidential Elections in South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate said he wants to revive the economy and stabilize the stock market.
At the moment of writing (around midnight Singapore time) the KOSPI 200 INDEX‘s reaction is positive, the futures are rising towards the most recent, last week highs (363).
This is a quick review of our most recent KOSPI 200’s tactical setups, in light of the political news coming out of the polls.

IFBH Ltd Pre- IPO – Growth Driven by Coconut Water Products Amid High Concentration Risks

By Akshat Shah

IFBH (IFBH HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Primo Global Holdings: A Bridal Business with Long Presence, Short on Performance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Primo Global (367A JP) will debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Standard Market on June 24, offering 6.5m shares, with pricing set after the June 9–13 book-building period.
Despite decades in operation, Primo has shown slow domestic growth and limited international traction, raising doubts about its ability to scale meaningfully in the bridal jewelry market.
With net debt at 50% of assets and over half its balance sheet in goodwill and intangibles, Primo faces material financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches

By Eric Wen

Li Auto (LI) reported mixed results with C1Q25 revenue (2.9%)/2.5% vs. our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income (11%)/(3.7%) vs. our est./cons..
We see two negatives going forward: (1) renewed price promotion started in March, (2) cautious remarks regarding prospects of BEV SUV launch in July.
We maintain SELL on LI and TP of US$20 on cautious outlook.

Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Dollar Industries (DOLLAR IN) reported modest revenue growth in FY25 amidst a challenging market, with strong emphasis on retail expansion and brand-building initiatives.
Despite a de-growth in sales volume, strategic investments in exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) and a renewed focus on premiumization are crucial for long-term growth.
The company’s resilience in maintaining margins despite volume pressures, coupled with its aggressive retail strategy, signals a potential turnaround as market conditions improve.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief China: BYD, Nexchip Semiconductor , New World Development, Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd., Xiaomi Corp, Lepu Medical Technology A, Lens Technology , Plover Bay Technologies, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact
NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction
Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Jun25 Results: 23/26 Changes Correct Despite Methodology Change
[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver
Lens Technology H-Share Listing: First Look
Plover Bay (1523 HK): Preview On Earnings For H1 2025
Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment A/H Listing – Market Leader but Has Been Facing Industry Headwinds

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Impact

There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 2.7x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) and sell 1.5x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH).
The delete has outperformed the inclusion this year. With 8 days left to implementation of the changes and decent impact, there could be a short-term reversal.

NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade