Australia

• PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) has disclosed a revised Mixi Inc (2121 JP) offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close. 
• Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. 
• Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.

• With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
• Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.
• Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.

• Back on the 26th Feb, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with MIXI (2121 JP), at $1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
• An approach from BETR Entertainment (BBT AU), PointsBet’s key rival, was initially rebuffed. On the 12th May, both parties subsequently entered into mutual due diligence after Betr finagled terms.
• MIXI has now bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Scheme Meeting has been delayed to the 25th June. DD continues to be carried out by PointsBet and Betr.   

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported FY25 revenues of N Z$208m, posting a strong recovery in H2, with dissipating headwinds and traditional H2 seasonality offsetting the softer H1 performance. H225 revenues (N Z$121.3m) grew 40% over H125 and 9% y-o-y, driven by sustained domestic market momentum and international market recovery. The FY25 operating margin of 8.5% (12.4% in FY24) was affected by lower licensing income and investments in marketing, R&D and international expansion, but these investments should deliver upside opportunities in the longer term. The balance sheet remains strong (net debt reduced to N Z$14.5m, 0.7x EBITDA), supporting the announcement of a 1.8c per share dividend (c 17% payout ratio). Management aims to achieve N Z$300m in revenues by end-FY27 and has guided for operating profit of N Z$20–24m in FY26, with increased operating leverage in the medium term. We update our valuation for AFT to N Z$691.4m or N Z$6.59/share, from N Z$697.4m or N Z$6.65/share previously.

• Lithium price recovery is a matter of when, not if. Lithium prices that peaked in 2022 at ~$80/kg on heavy inventory build, driven by supply chain concerns, and subsequently collapsed to $8-10/kg, due to oversupply and the slower uptake of EVs in the US and Europe, could begin to recover, perhaps as early as next year.
• This takes into account that 40% of the industry is operating at a loss in the current price environment and demand for the metal remains robust, with energy storage markets growing 65% Y/Y and EVs growing 29% Y/Y in 1Q25.
• China’s role in mining and dominance in processing.

• Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) entered a combination deed with Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). A newly-capitalised ASX-listed company (TopCo) will merge Brickworks and Soul Patts. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as both Brickworks and Soul Patts shareholders will support the merger, which provides an elegant solution to unwind the cross-shareholdings. 
• Investor support for the transaction seems strong, as evidenced by the A$550 million commitments for TopCo at a stingy NIL discount to the SOL last close price.

• Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
• In an ASX release on May 28, the company pushed out its guidance for when it will be EBITDA positive from FY26 to FY27, citing that the extended Continuing Resolution (CR) for the FY25 Congressional US budget and the Department of Defense programmes had contributed to the delay in revenue and new contracts.
• The CR has paused “new starts” and “re-starts”, delaying expenditure.

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
• The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
• There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.

• The cross-shareholding between Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) was established in 1969 to defend the companies from the corporate raiders.
• Perpetual pursued a case in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging that the cross-shareholding was oppressive to minority shareholders; however the claim was dismissed in 2017.
• Today, via inter-conditional Schemes, the circularity is set to be unwound through a merger. Soul Patts currently owns 43.3% in Brickworks, and Brickworks 26% in Soul Patts. 

• Global dry bulk trade is facing its sharpest contraction in nearly a decade, with year-to-date 2025 volumes down 1.5%, according to DBX data.
• This decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, rising domestic production in key markets, geopolitical instability, and weather-related disruptions.
• Coal, iron ore, and grain exports have borne the brunt, while bauxite flows remain robust. 

• Genesis is set to wrap up a deal with Focus Minerals for their Laverton project next month.
• The potential payback timeline for the project is unclear due to work needed on the resources and the mill.
• Questions remain about the quality and quantity of the reported 4 million ounce mineral resource at the Laverton project.

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• 12th May: Cobalt Holdings, a Company created primarily to purchase and hold physical cobalt, offering public equity investors pure-play direct exposure to the price of cobalt, confirmed its intention to raise approximately US$230m through its Global Offer and the Admission on to the Main Market in June 2025.
• Glencore International AG and certain entities and affiliates managed by Anchorage Structured Commodities Advisor, have agreed to participate as cornerstone investors, agreeing to invest, in aggregate, an amount representing approximately 20.5% of the Shares to be offered pursuant to the Global Offer.
• 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it has confirmed its intention to IPO onto the Main Market. T

• Dual-Listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
• Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
• The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.

• Nufarm (NUF AU), an agricultural chemical company , is down ~40% since it announced a 39.5% decline in 1H25 profit. The share price is at the lowest level since Covid. 
• Concurrent with this results, Nufarm announced a review of its seed technology ops. Reportedly Advanta, BP – amongst others- are vying for the est. A$900mn business.   
• Elsewhere, it is being reported that key shareholders recommend the Nufarm board explore a full takeover. 

• ALS Ltd (ALQ AU)  is looking to raise up to ~US$253m, with US$227m from a primary placement and remainder, via a non-underwritten share purchase plan (SPP) to raise up to A$40m.
• The deal will be a large one to digest at 17.9 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 4.1% of its shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• In April 2025, global coal markets showed a diverging trend between thermal and metallurgical segments.
• Thermal coal remained under pressure amid softening prices, high stockpiles in China and India, and collapsing power demand in Europe, where electricity generation fell sharply due to warm weather, a major blackout in Spain, and ongoing economic stagnation in Germany.
• As a result, API2 and API4 prices slipped further, with month-ahead API2 contracts trading at $93/ton, API4 at $88/ton, and Newcastle coal easing to $95/ton, despite a brief rebound to $99 mid-month.

Since our last note on the company, Alkane Resources has announced its interim results, its Q325 quarterly activities report and, on 28 April, a merger of equals with Canada’s Mandalay Resources Corporation. The first two of these three have led us to increase our FY25 EPS estimate by over 40%, to 7.25c. The third has caused us to entirely re-evaluate the company as a merged entity from 30 June 2025.

• Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
• The company has released a business update, including news of the recent securement of $11.0m in engineering and construction projects.
• This is the first sign that the challenging macro environment experienced over the past six months is beginning to improve, particularly in government and government-adjacent sectors such as defence and water.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), ZEEKR (ZK US).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Amara Holdings (AMA SP), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), SLB Development (SLB SP). 

• Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.

• Back on the 21st May, Xanadu Mines (XAM AU), a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, inked an off-market deal with Bastion @A$0.08/share in cash. 
• Bastion comprises Singapore-based Baroo (comprising board members from Mongolia) and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted.
• A follow-up Q&A session is worth listening to in full to gauge why Zijin (JV partner and 19.8% shareholder) may view Bastion taking control of XAM as a good thing.  

• Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.
• Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.
• On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.

• Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
• BFG has provided a trading update for the four months to April 2025 as part of its AGM presentation.
• While the combined Technology & Platforms and Products & Services profit before tax (PBT) has increased 15% on a 12% revenue increase, the Retail & Institutional business (traditional broking) has moved from positive $5.7m to a loss of $3.2m, an $8.9m turnaround on a revenue decline of 20%.