Australia

• Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
• Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
• Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Recce is raising up to A$15.8m in equity fundraising through a now-completed A$5.0m share placement and an entitlement offer for remaining shareholders that could raise up to an additional A$10.8m in gross proceeds. Both rounds of financing are priced at A$0.28 per new share. We anticipate the total funding should support Recce’s operations into Q226 (Q4 CY25) as its near-term focus lies on advancing R327 topical gel (R327G) through registration-enabling pivotal studies. We expect Recce to start a registrational Indonesian Phase III study of R327G for the treatment of diabetic foot infections (DFIs) in the coming weeks. We now obtain an rNPV valuation of A$615.1m and our per-share valuation adjusts to A$2.51 per share (vs A$2.68 previously), reflecting the increase in shares outstanding after the placement.

• On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
• Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
• Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. 

• China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
• China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
• Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 

• A double line is drawn under the past, as its wholly owned subsidiary Coro Energy Duyung is being sold.
• It has a holding in the Mako Gas Field in Indonesia and the proposed disposal is to West Natuna Exploration Ltd (WNEL), a subsidiary of Conrad Asia Energy, that already has a 76.5% working interest in Mako.
• Whilst Coro has supported the asset for many years, recent GSA pricing and oil price movements have materially deteriorated the project economics and the Operator has not delivered material progress on key commercial milestones.

• NVX believes its strategy aligns with the administration’s goal to secure critical mineral supply chains and support domestic manufacturing.
• Its existing Riverside plant – where production capacity has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements – is in Tennessee and NVX plans to construct a 2nd production facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• Each of NVX’s three operating units is expected to play an important role in its development & growth, as NVX leverages proprietary R&D & patented technology to develop critical materials for the battery sector.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
• The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa. 
• At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap. 

• With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
• As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
• There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

• Last week, I had the pleasure of meeting the senior management team of Kina Securities (KSL AU — US$193 million) — a Papua New Guinea- (“PNG”) based commercial bank listed on the ASX.

• Participants included Kina Securities’ CEO Ivan Vidovich and CFO Johnson Kalo.

• The bank trades at a modest P/E ratio of 8.2x with a dividend yield of 9.2%. While the share price has risen recently, it remains well below its all-time high in 2019.

• China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
• China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
• Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

After reporting positive momentum in Q424, Freelancer saw year-on-year growth in gross marketplace volume (GMV) and revenue in Q125 across both divisions. The company also generated positive operating profit and cash flow in the quarter. We view the adoption of AI (by Freelancer, by freelancers and by customers) and new integrations and partnerships within Escrow as key drivers of growth and profitability during our forecast period.

• GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
• With material capital management flagged for later this calendar year, we think a capital return is the most likely option given a lack of franking credits for a special dividend.
• We look at a range of capital return amounts, including our base case for a $0.25/share capital return (or $49m in total) as this would result in a debt/EBITDA ratio around the peer average of 1.0x FY25f and fit within the current $35m banking facility.

• Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  
• With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. 
• With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has announced that total revenue in Q3 increased 15% to $8.1m, with higher-margin SaaS (Software as a Service) revenue making up 50% of the total.
• SaaS revenue grew 60% in the quarter on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4m and is tracking at $16m on an annualised basis.

• James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
• The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
• The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

• On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
• JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. 
• Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders

• Glencore PLC’s 2024 financial results reflect a robust operational year, with the company reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 billion, indicating strong performance across its industrial and marketing segments.
• The industrial segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, primarily driven by a healthy metals business despite challenging conditions in the metallurgical market.
• The recent integration of the EVR coal business contributed significantly, adding $1 billion to EBITDA in the latter half of the year.

• The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
• We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

• After rejecting  Gold Fields (GFI SJ)‘s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
• After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
• But don’t expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s Scheme vote on the 16th April.

• Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) aims to raise around US$122m in order to partly fund its acquisition of SVS Veterinary Supplies (SVS).
• This will complement the company’s strategy of investing for growth and the second acquisition done in 2H25.
• In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.