China

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades
Innogen (银诺医药) IPO Trading Update
[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore
Geely (175 HK): 2Q25, Revenue Up by 28% YoY
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
Currently, we see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 49 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 5 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

Innogen (银诺医药) IPO Trading Update

Innogen raised HKD 683m (USD 88m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, August 14th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore

By Umang Agrawal

China’s July lending drop signals weak private sector appetite, while severe weather hampers outdoor construction.
Managed money participants trimmed net long futures exposure amid rising prices, signalling profit-taking.
Bullish momentum has faded as prices dip below key moving averages and MACD signals growing seller control in the market.

Geely (175 HK): 2Q25, Revenue Up by 28% YoY

In 2Q25, Geely’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 2Q25 and its vehicle deliveries increased more rapidly by 47%.
We believe Geely is the only competitor to the market leader BYD.
We set the target price at HK$23 for the next twelve months, which is 21% above the current price.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

UST yields declined by 5-6 bps across the curve yesterday, as the market further firmed up expectations of a 25 bp Fed rate cut in September.
As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in a 26 bp rate cut next month and 64 bps of rate cuts for the remainder of 2025.
The yields on the 2Y UST and 10Y UST both declined 6 bps to 3.68% and 4.23%, respectively.

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Aug 14

Daily Brief China: Tencent, BYD, Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products, CNGR Advanced Material , Will Semiconductor, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits
BYD (1211 HK)’s Current Relief Rally May Lead to Another Pullback
Pre-IPO Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products-Concerns Behind the Strong Growth and Profitability
CNGR A/H Listing: Supplier for Tesla Looking to Expand Production
OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (Will Semicon) A/H Listing – Earnings Have Been Recovering
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

In 2Q25, game revenue increased by 22% YoY and FinTech revenue growth reached two digits.
The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared to 30.6% in 2Q24.
The 10-year P/E band suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025.

BYD (1211 HK)’s Current Relief Rally May Lead to Another Pullback

By Nico Rosti

After an explosive rally in the first part of the year BYD (1211 HK) started to sputter in mid-May and has been downtrending since.
BYD was starting to be oversold at the end of last week, as shown in our latest Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY insight, but this week started a relief rally.
However, the current trend pattern is NOT BULLISH according to our model, the stock could fall again after a 1-2 weeks bounce. Profit target: 116-123 price zone.

Pre-IPO Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products-Concerns Behind the Strong Growth and Profitability

In the field of Human TAT, Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products (JIBP) is in a dominant position. Net profit CAGR was much higher than the revenue CAGR, indicating strong profitability.
This market is not big with obvious growth ceiling. Future CAGR of JIBP would gradually slow down if it continues to mainly rely on Human TAT to contribute performance.
Since the technical barriers in Human TAT industry are relatively high, and JIBP is a global leader in this field, JIBP’s valuation can at least reach the industry average level.

CNGR A/H Listing: Supplier for Tesla Looking to Expand Production

By Nicholas Tan

CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) , a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer, and labels itself as a new energy materials company.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (Will Semicon) A/H Listing – Earnings Have Been Recovering

Omnivision (Will Semiconductor 603501 CH) (OVIC, 603501 CH), a semiconductor company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
OVIC, is the world’s third largest smartphone CIS and the largest automotive CIS provider with a market share of 32.9% based on revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

The UST curve twisted steeper yesterday after the July CPI report came in mostly within expectations, which could provide room for a Fed rate cut in September.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.73%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.29%.
Equities rallied to new record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.1% and 1.4%, to 6,446 and 21,682, respectively. In the US, the July CPI inched down to 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.3% p), and was stable at 2.7% y-o-y (2.8% e / 2.7% p). T

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Aug 13

Daily Brief China: Zhongji Innolight , Swire Pacific (A), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., 52TOYS Development, EVE Energy, Tencent Music, Zai Lab Ltd, Unisound AI Technology, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September
StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout
52Toys Development Pre-IPO: Steady Expansion But in a Highly Fragmented Market
Eve Energy A/H Listing – One of the Leaders but Growth Has Been Slowing
Tencent Music (TME): 2Q25, Concert Revenue Booming, Margin Hitting Historical High
[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, BUY, TP US$40) Review]: Past Is Holding ZLAB Back but Future Is What Matters
Unisound AI (9678.HK): ~US$6.5B Market Cap, ADTV ~US$6M, Is Secondary Share Sale On The Deck?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September

Nearing the end of the review period for the September rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
WuXi AppTec, Zhongji Innolight and BeiGene could replace China United Network, NARI Technology and China National Nuclear Power in the ETF at the close on 19 September.
Passives will need to trade 0.1-0.7x ADV in the forecast changes. The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months.

StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As

As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Preceding my comments on Pac, Swire Properties (1972 HK) & Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

By Arun George

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection). The offer is final.
The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout

Medical device play Kangji Medical (9997 HK) has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and the Qatar Investment Authority, together with founders.
The consortium is offering HK$9.25/share, a less-than-inspiring 9.9% premium to last close. The price has been declared final. It is 33.4% below the HK$13.88 2020 IPO price.
Independent shareholders hold 25.25% of shares out. They could bare teeth; and they’ve been somewhat active at AGMs. But on balance, there’s probably enough here for this to get up.

52Toys Development Pre-IPO: Steady Expansion But in a Highly Fragmented Market

By Hong Jie Seow

52TOYS Development (TOY HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
52Toys Development is one of the leading IP toy companies in China, with a portfolio of over 100 proprietary and licensed intellectual properties (IPs) as of Dec 2024.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Eve Energy A/H Listing – One of the Leaders but Growth Has Been Slowing

EVE Energy (300014 CH) (EVE), a lithium battery provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
EVE produces lithium batteries which cater to consumer battery, power battery and ESS battery sectors.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Tencent Music (TME): 2Q25, Concert Revenue Booming, Margin Hitting Historical High

In 2Q25, non-subscriber music revenue surged by 47% YoY and total revenue grew by 18% YoY.
The operating margin hit the historical high since TME’s IPO.
We believe the stock has an upside of 9% and a price target of US$27.60 for the year end 2025.

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, BUY, TP US$40) Review]: Past Is Holding ZLAB Back but Future Is What Matters

By Eric Wen

Zai Lab reported C2Q15 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss 1.5% above, 31% narrower and 38% narrower than our estimate, and 12% below,
We cut ZEJULA’s peak sales by 12% due to sustained competition. We are also concerned on the slow ramp up of AUGTYRO, which will likely persist.
However, ZLAB has several catalysts ahead, including Bemarituzumab, KarXT, and ZL1310. We keep TP unchanged and maintain BUY.

Unisound AI (9678.HK): ~US$6.5B Market Cap, ADTV ~US$6M, Is Secondary Share Sale On The Deck?

By Andrei Zakharov

Unisound AI Technology, a founder-led AI solution provider with focus on conversational AI products and speech recognition technologies, completed its IPO in Hong Kong in June.
Beijing based AI company priced an initial public offering at HK$205.00/share, raising ~HK$251M of net proceeds. The stock is up ~248% from its IPO price at Monday’s close.
Unisound AI’s market cap today is on a par with market cap of SenseTime and 2x bigger than Beijing Fourth Paradigm. All these companies have the similar growth profiles.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

UST yield movements were muted yesterday, amid an absence of macro news and ahead of the CPI data release today.
The yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST were unchanged at 3.77% and 4.29%, respectively.
Equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.3% to 6,373 and 21,385, respectively.

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Aug 12

Daily Brief China: SICC, China Merchants Bank H, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A, Mobvoi , Wynn Macau Ltd, Shanghai Conant Optical, Greentown China and more

In today’s briefing:

SICC A/H Listing – Needs a Very Deep Discount
A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) (600129 CH) – Investors Are Betting on the Merger with China TCM
Mobvoi Inc. Revenue From AIGC Solutions Continues To Post Hyper Growth, TicNote Debuted in April
Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief
Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Growth Optics Sharp & Clear with Expanding Margins, Robust Sales in 1H25
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

SICC A/H Listing – Needs a Very Deep Discount

SICC (688234 CH) , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$260m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

By Travis Lundy

AH premia down, bouncing back. “Beautiful Skew” continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile – often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) (600129 CH) – Investors Are Betting on the Merger with China TCM

The current channel inventory digestion has been ongoing for nearly a year. If the terminal sales data in 25Q3 improves, it is expected to support the revenue recovery in 25Q4.
China TCM and CNPGC had signed relevant agreement on the free transfer of equity. Investors think this is paving the way for the future integration of China TCM and Taiji.
Investors have reignited interest in betting on China TCM’s privatization and merger with Taiji .According to Taiji, CNPGC will still fulfill its commitment to resolving the issue of horizontal competition

Mobvoi Inc. Revenue From AIGC Solutions Continues To Post Hyper Growth, TicNote Debuted in April

By Andrei Zakharov

Mobvoi Inc., a Google-backed provider of AIGC software solutions and TicWatch maker, will announce interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2025, soon.
The AI firm currently adjusts its business strategy, shifting to AIGC business model from traditional project-based revenue generating model.
In April 2025, Mobvoi unveiled TicNote, a compact AI-powered voice recorder. It’s a separate device from smartphone, which gathered significant attention from media and users.

Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

Credit markets tightened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over narrowing 3 bps to 268 bps.
European bourses rose 0.2-0.9% except for the FTSE 100 and DAX, which both fell 0.1%.
In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively.

Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Growth Optics Sharp & Clear with Expanding Margins, Robust Sales in 1H25

In 1H25, Shanghai Conant Optical (2276 HK) reported revenue rise of 11% to RMB 1.1M buoyed by growth across segments like multifunctional lens (up 9%) and standardized lens (up 20%).
In 1H25, the company kept up with its consistency of expanding its gross margins period after period, as margin expanded from 39.2% in 1H24 to 41% in 1H25 (2024: 38.6%).
Shanghai Conant’s robust demand outlook, capacity expansion plans, R&D initiatives and margin strength offer a strong long term secular growth story.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

UST yields rose on Friday, in a continuation of Thursday’s increase following the weak 30Y notes auction.
In addition, there were no macro catalysts, ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data release (which may alter market expectations for the rate cuts currently priced in).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 3.76%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 3 bps at 4.28%.

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Aug 11

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Consun Pharmaceutical, Alibaba, Cosco Shipping Ports, Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Haier Smart Home , BeiGene and more

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions
ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock
COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): Potential Involvement in CKH’s Port Sale
Innogen IPO: Competition Mars Outlook, Long Way To Go, Listing Gain Only Incentive For Now
Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update
BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 – The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions

A methodology change for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) will result in 20 deletions at the close of trading on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.3bn (US$162m). Passive trackers need to sell between 0.05-1x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the other index constituents since the start of the year but there has been little movement since the announcement of the methodology change.

ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.
On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.

COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): Potential Involvement in CKH’s Port Sale

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) is a major beneficiary of its parent’s potential 20-30% stake in the consortium to acquire CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s port portfolio.
A potential injection of such assets from its parent will enhance its profitability, diversify its throughput mix, and expand its geographical coverage in the future.
Its 8.3x PER and 0.43x P/B are not expensive relative to earnings outlook and ROE. The strong 1Q25 and upcoming 1H25 results mean earnings upgrade potential.

Innogen IPO: Competition Mars Outlook, Long Way To Go, Listing Gain Only Incentive For Now

Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$683M. The company plans to sell 36.6M shares at HK$18.68 per share.
Innogen discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative therapies for diabetes and other metabolic diseases. Their portfolio currently comprises of one core product, Efsubaglutide Alfa, for treatment of type 2 diabetes.
The GLP-1 drug market is slowly tending towards an overheated zone with upcoming Ozempic’s patent expiry in 2026.

Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update

By Michael Fritzell

Haier is the world’s largest home appliances company, with particular strength in refrigerators and washing machines. It’s got multiple world-renowned brands, including Haier, GE Appliance, Fisher & Paykel, Candy and more.
The company was largely built by visionary entrepreneur Zhang Ruimin, who created a corporate culture unique in China and beyond. He spearheaded Haier’s international expansion, acquiring companies such as America’s GE Appliances and Italy’s Candy, giving it local distribution networks for its lower-priced Haier offering.
In late 2020, Haier Smart Home merged with its separately-listed distribution subsidiary Haier Electronics. Following this complex transaction, Haier was left with three separate share classes: A-shares listed in Shanghai, H-shares listed in Hong Kong and D-shares listed in Frankfurt.

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 – The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.
BeiGene’s turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.

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Aug 10

Daily Brief China: HKBN Ltd, BeiGene and more

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair
China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene’s Headwind in 25Q2

HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair

After a protracted period towards securing the necessary regulatory approvals, this transaction has since accelerated.
Just two days after the Offer Doc was issued, the Response Doc has now been dispatched.
The IFA (Somerley) says China Mobile (941 HK)‘s terms are fair & reasonable. The First Close is the 3rd September. Expect the Offer to turn unconditional before that date.

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene’s Headwind in 25Q2

Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.
The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.
BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene.

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Aug 09

Daily Brief China: Iron Ore, Shandong BoAn Biotechnology , BeiGene , Hang Seng Index and more

In today’s briefing:

[IO Technicals 2025/32] Bullish Momentum Builds
BoAn Biotechnology (6955 HK): Profitable Operation & Pipeline Progress Make the Placement Attractive
BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Extend Lead in US, Robust Pipeline, Positive Guidance Revision
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 04–08): HSI Rebounds, Single Stock Option Activity Fades

[IO Technicals 2025/32] Bullish Momentum Builds

By Umang Agrawal

China’s July steel exports hit highest year-to-date level since 1990, and S&P affirms A+ rating despite property and trade challenges.
Managed money participants turned net long in futures after prolonged bearishness, adding positions as prices neared the $100/ton mark.
Despite a recent death cross, prices remain firm above short-term MA, nearing bullish crossover, with Bollinger Bands signalling resilience and upside potential.

BoAn Biotechnology (6955 HK): Profitable Operation & Pipeline Progress Make the Placement Attractive

Shandong BoAn Biotechnology (6955 HK) is placing 48M shares, representing 7.7% of the total number of issued shares post placement. Placement price is HK$16.42, 9% discount to last undisturbed price.
The expected net proceeds of ~HK$780M will be used for funding R&D of innovative product candidates and commercialization of marketed and upcoming products.
This is the second placement of the company this year. In June, Boan Biotech raised ~HK$396M through placing 26.7M shares. The company is not expected to raise fund anytime soon.

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Extend Lead in US, Robust Pipeline, Positive Guidance Revision

BeiGene (6160 HK) reported 2Q25 revenues of $1.3B, up 42% YoY (1H25 Revenue: $2.4B, up 45%), driven primarily by growth in Brukinsa sales in the U.S. and Europe.
In 2Q25, U.S. sale of Brukinsa was $684M, up 43% YoY. For three consecutive quarters now, Brukinsa outpaced its closest competitor Calquence which reported US revenue of $583M in 2Q25.
BeiGene now expects 2025 revenue to be in the range of $5.0–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY) compared to the previous revenue guidance of $4.9–5.3B.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 04–08): HSI Rebounds, Single Stock Option Activity Fades

By John Ley

Hang Seng Index back in the green with broad based gains across optionable names.
Single stock option volumes were very lackluster and Call enthusiasm continues to be muted.
Full slate of earnings announcements on tap for the upcoming week.

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Aug 08

Daily Brief China: PCCW Ltd, Tencent, Zijin Gold, Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Bitmain Technologies Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium
Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Spinoff to Cater to a Shiny Gold Market
Innogen (银诺医药) IPO: Fairly Valued at Best and Lack of Institutional Interests
SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Results in Line; 3Q25 May Offer Mild Upside, but GM Is Expected to Be Flattish.
The Equity Dispatch #47: Bitmain’s Quest for a Backdoor Listing: CANG and More

StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium

Despite the recent pullback, PCCW Ltd (8 HK) continues to trade at an unjustifiable premium to NAV.
Preceding my comments on PCCW/ HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility

By John Ley

Tencent approaches earnings with low volatility and steady outperformance versus HSI.
Volatilities are historically low with an earnings release on tap.
Options market expects a modest move despite recent Tencent momentum.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Spinoff to Cater to a Shiny Gold Market

By Nicholas Tan

Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Innogen (银诺医药) IPO: Fairly Valued at Best and Lack of Institutional Interests

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 88 million via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product, namely efsubaglutide alfa, updates in various filings, and our thoughts on valuation.
In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation is demanding and lacks institutional interest.

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Results in Line; 3Q25 May Offer Mild Upside, but GM Is Expected to Be Flattish.

By Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) reported in-line 2Q25 results, while its 3Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious, particularly in terms of gross margin.
The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.9% in 2Q25, while China and Eurasia comprised the remaining majority.
Our top questions for the upcoming SMIC’s 3Q25 earnings conference call.

The Equity Dispatch #47: Bitmain’s Quest for a Backdoor Listing: CANG and More

By J Capital Research

Bitmain is taking control of listed proxy firms in the United States. That could mean that the mining results of some proxies are overstated, and investors should avoid those companies.
It would be easy for Bitmain, the Chinese chip designer with about 80% of the global market for Bitcoin mining gear and significant mining operations of its own,¹ to report the same mining results for more than one company.
Many of these proxies pay Bitmain to mine on their behalf. Since Bitmain remains private, it has no responsibility to report related-party transactions.

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Aug 07

Daily Brief China: Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, JD.com , Innovation Global Industries, Our United Corporation, Guming Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%
Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings
Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities
Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says
JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal
Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind
Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25 Preview, Game Up by 16%

We believe game revenue will continue to recover in 2Q25, riding on the policy easing.
We also believe the operating margin will improve slightly due to the usage of AI.
We expect the stock has an upside of 23% for year end 2025.

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Tencent (700 HK) is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.
Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.
Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.

Google Is Our Biggest Rival, Kuaishou’s AI Video Chief Says

By Caixin Global

An executive at Kuaishou Technology has identified Google as the No. 1 rival to its artificial intelligence (AI) video generator Kling AI, as the short-video specialist tries to capitalize on growing public interest in the tools.
“Google is a very strong competitor to Kling AI in areas ranging from technology to AI infrastructure and talent, with co-founder Sergey Brin personally overseeing the research and development of its video generation models,” Wan Pengfei, head of Kuaishou’s visual generation and interaction center, said in an interview with Caixin on the sidelines of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai from Saturday to Monday.
Riding the AI video wave sparked by OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora in early 2024, Kuaishou in June that year launched Kling AI, which can create short videos from written prompts and images.

JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal

By Caixin Global

JD.com is making its boldest push yet into the European market. On Thursday, the Chinese e commerce giant announced plans to acquire all outstanding shares in Germany’s CeconomyAG, the parent company of electronics retailers MediaMarkt and Saturn, in a cash offer valuing the deal at about 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion).
Through its wholly owned subsidiary Jingdong Holding Germany GmbH, JD.com is offering 4.60 euros per share, a 43% premium to Ceconomy’s three month volume weighted average price and 23% above its July 23 close, before news of the potential takeover emerged.
Shares rose to 4.41 euros Thursday, up 1.26%. Upon completion, Ceconomy would be privatized and delisted.

Innovation Global Industries Holdings Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

Innovation Global Industries (IGI HK) is looking to raise at least US$100mn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai Financial and CICC.
Innovation Group Industries Holdings is an upstream aluminium production company that primarily focuses on aluminium smelting and alumina refining.
Historically, the sale of electrolytic aluminum has been the main revenue driver for IGI, accounting for 95.5%, 90.5% and 85% of IGI’s revenue in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Pre-IPO Our United Corporation – The Business and the Concerns Behind

OUR United’s business model is “high-end equipment sales + solution services”. The training system for domestically produced equipment is not yet fully mature, which limits large-scale promotion in hospitals.
OUR United’s products haven’t been widely recognized.Hospitals generally hold a cautious attitude towards domestic equipment, especially when it comes to complex cases, relying more on technological maturity of imported equipment.
After the final round of financing, the valuation of OUR United was RMB5.135 billion, which is expensive due to the slow revenue growth and the uncertainties in commercialization outlook.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, HKBN Ltd, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee, Beijing Roborock Technology , Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Vigonvita Life Sciences and more

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open
Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August.

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns.
As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product namely efsubaglutide alfa, and updates in various filings.
In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s core product.

Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization

Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CITIC.
The company refiled its prospectus and dropped VV116, the commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug, from its core asset list.
In this note, we look at changes between filings and also further examine the prospect of LV232 and TPN171.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention