China

• Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
• Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
• If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). 

• Pacific Textiles is a major knitted fabric manufacturer facing significant headwinds, evidenced by a multi-year decline in revenue and profitability. The company’s performance is closely tied to the cyclical nature of the global apparel market and the inventory management of its key customers.
• The company maintains a high dividend yield, which may appeal to income-focused investors. However, the sustainability of this payout is questionable given the sharp decline in net income and free cash flow, and the dividend per share has already been reduced.
• Strategically, the company is shifting production capacity to its Vietnam facilities to capitalize on lower costs and changing trade dynamics. This move is crucial for future competitiveness but also entails execution risk and underutilization of its China-based assets.

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• Zijin Mining is a rapidly growing global mining powerhouse, having recently become the world’s third-largest mining company by market capitalization, driven by surging gold and copper prices.
• The company exhibits a strong growth trajectory, underpinned by a successful strategy of aggressive international acquisitions and superior operational capabilities that enable faster mine development.
• Despite robust financial performance and a positive commodity outlook, the company’s valuation appears stretched, with high short interest suggesting significant market skepticism.

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• As suggested in our previous insight, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally was at risk of pulling back: a small correction began last week.
• The big question now: is this just a minor 1-week pullback (a buy-the-dip opportunity)? or a larger pullback, possibly directed towards 23k?
• This insight discusses the various tactical scenarios, including profit targets for a continuation of the rally from here.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. 
• My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
• The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. 

• Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK).
• Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• With the pre-cons squared away as per the 3rd September announcement, the key risk to Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)‘s Offer is the Scheme vote. 
• The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an uninspiring 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high. And peers are down 10% on average since the Offer.
• A persual of the s329 investigative reports provides a significantly clearer picture on who holds what.

• On the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
• At an auction, the Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke, subject to CSDC oversight. Approval was received on the 19th September.
• The Composite Document is now out, and shareholders, should they so choose, can tender. The first close is the 17th October. The Offer may get extended.  I doubt it. 

• Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
• Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
• Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

• Alibaba Group has announced an aggressive expansion of its artificial intelligence ambitions, earmarking over $50 billion in new AI and cloud investments over the next three years—an amount greater than its entire spending over the last decade.
• This significant push is aimed at positioning the company at the forefront of Asia’s generative AI and cloud infrastructure race.
• Central to this effort is the launch of its next-generation large language model, Qwen3-Max, following the success of Qwen2.5, which already has over 90,000 derivative models globally.

• China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September. 

• NIO is a prominent player in China’s premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.
• The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.
• Future success hinges on management’s ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.

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• Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
• Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
• Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.

• Alibaba (9988 HK) launched Qwen3-Max, its largest LLM to date, along with a suite of Qwen3 models and technical upgrades at its annual flagship conference, reinforcing its full-stack AI ambitions.
• The stock has surged nearly 50% month-to-date, fueled by investor optimism over AI-related upside, since the August 29 investor call.
• Investors now await proof that execution and performance will deliver on Alibaba’s bold technical claims and high market expectations.

• Chery Automobile (9973. HK) priced its IPO at HK$30.75 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$1.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 25.
• The IPO was discussed in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case and Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights. 
• The market sentiment of the peers has declined since the IPO launch. Chery Auto is fairly valued at the IPO price.

• Baba’s recent surge mirrors past rallies, with recent sideways price action raising a caution flag.
• Metrics from the options market suggest that sentiment that was overheated has begun to turn.
• We explore an alternative hedge that will not cap a continued rally but is less expensive than directly buying Puts in Baba.

• Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.
• High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  
• The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.

• There are multiple signs of overheating in Baidu trading including accelerating stock and option volumes.  
• Skew has been driven higher by strong demand for up-strike Calls.
• We recommend a hedge that tilts the odds in the holder’s favor while establishing the position at a credit.

• Chery Automobile (9973 HK) raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• The macro-economic backdrop in China is challenging for banks, with soft economic growth driving worsening credit quality and dovish monetary policy pushing interest margins lower
• Nonetheless, China banks balance sheets appear to be relatively robust, and we screen ten large cap banks for contrarian buy opportunities
• We focus on two banks; Ping An Bank and CCB are our buy recommendations for their relatively strong returns and sound credit quality metrics

• Solarspace Technology (2221225D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by China Securities International and CITIC Securities.
• Solarspace Technology Co., Ltd. is a global specialized photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturer with an integrated presence in PV modules. which are the core components that convert sunlight into electricity.
• The company operates in the midstream of the solar value chain, focusing on the research, development, and large-scale production of both N-type and P-type PV cells, and PV modules.

• Allergy prevention and treatment products are core business. Although proportion of allergic children is increasing, it’s not enough to offset the decline in demand caused by the decrease in newborns.
• Due to fierce market competition and inadequate adult FSMP education, the non-infant FSMP market is not easy to operate. The acceleration of registration for FSMP will lead to fierce competition.
• Our 2025 forecast is revenue could be up 20% YoY, reaching RMB1 billion.Valuation of Sainte Nutritional should be higher than peers due to higher profit margin and performance growth rate.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Cikarang Listrindo, Nickel Industries, China Vanke
• UST yields declined 2-5 bps across the curve yesterday, driven by solid demand for a 2Y notes auction even as Fed officials gave differing views over future rate cuts. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST dropping 2 bps to 3.59% while that of the 10Y UST decreased 4 bps to 4.11%.
• Equities retreated from record-high levels after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave no indications of a rate cut in October during his policy speech. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 6,657, while the Nasdaq slumped 0.9% to 22,573.

• I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
• A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable. 
• The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November. 

• Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
• The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October. 
• The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
• The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided. 

• Context: Stat-arb models flag Alibaba (9988 HK) as overvalued versus the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.
• Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.
• Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.

• Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
• VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.
• CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it’s performance has drawn little market attention, yet.
• China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)  trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.

• China Satellite Communications (China Satcom) is a core professional subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, holding a national basic telecommunications business license. It is the primary operator of satellite communications in China, with a fleet of geostationary satellites covering China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Pacific.
• The company’s revenue streams are primarily derived from satellite resource leasing and value-added services, including broadcasting, telecom, corporate, and government applications. While revenue has seen a slight decline in recent years, the company maintains a strong market position within China.
• The global satellite communication market is projected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed internet, particularly in remote areas, and the expansion of applications in the military, aviation, and maritime sectors. This presents both opportunities and challenges for China Satcom as the industry landscape evolves with the rise of LEO constellations and new technologies.

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• Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
• The company’s financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China’s capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
• Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SJM Holdings
• UST yields climbed 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, rising for the fourth straight day after the Fed’s rate cut last week. The UST curve bear flattened slightly, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 3 bps to 3.60%, while that on the 10Y UST increased 2 bps to 4.15%. Equities climbed for a third straight day.
• The S&P 500 edged up 0.4% to a fresh record high (for the 28th time this year) of 6,694, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 22,789.

• Prosus is a global internet group with a vast portfolio of online companies, but its market value is predominantly influenced by its substantial stake in Chinese tech giant Tencent.
• The company trades at a significant and persistent discount to its net asset value (NAV), a key challenge management is addressing through an open-ended share buyback program funded by the gradual sale of its Tencent shares.
• A strategic pivot is underway, shifting from a passive investment holding company to an active operator aiming to drive its core e-commerce segments (Food Delivery, Classifieds, Fintech, and Edtech) to sustained profitability and unlock value independent of Tencent.

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• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
• The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• The one-week lemon shortage did not impact the stock price.
• The stock price has plunged for three months to HK$395 from the peak HK$618.
• The revenue growth and the margin were healthy in 1H25.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
• At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
• At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway completely exited its stake in BYD (1211 HK).
• We highlight four major reasons why Berkshire may have exited its entire position including valuations, tariffs, competition and lower profit margins, and greater risk prospects on economic stagnation in China. 
• Berkshire selling all its stake in BYD is likely to have a slightly negative impact on the Chery Auto IPO. However, we maintain a Positive view of Chery Auto IPO. 

• “Beautiful Skew” nowhere this past week. The meat of the wider parts of the AH premia curve saw Hs underperform even as liquid Hs outperformed As average by 0.6%.
• Last week’s long reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 6.56%. It was a bad week. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• CSI All Share Semiconductors Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect up to five ADDs and one DEL for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

• Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK) announced a preconditional privatisation offer from Changhong Group, the controlling shareholder, at HK$1.223, a 32.9% premium to the last close price.
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and the headcount test. The offer is final.
• Two shareholders hold blocking stakes – one has provided an irrevocable, and the other is SOE-linked. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. Timing is the key risk.     

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

• CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect up to six ADDs and six DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

• After a 33.9% rally off the April lows HSI is starting to flash caution across a variety of metrics.
• Weak breadth and option exuberance at the single stock level are additional areas of concern.
• We outline the technical backdrop and recommend hedge strategies given the current level of implied vols.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Chery Automobile (9973 HK), Zijin Gold (2259 HK) and Centurion Accomodation REIT (CAREIT SP) IPOs. 
• Event-Driven developments: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK). 

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Zijin Gold appears to be shining bright.
• On the placements front, it was a relatively quiter week, as compared to some of the more recent weekly flows.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
• Highlights: Implied volatility has broadly risen across most, but not all, HK stocks. Front-month expiries remain historically cheap amid a steepening curve. Opportunities endure, though fewer than in recent weeks.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling
• Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak
• We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short

• Although high gold price helps drive revenue growth as Hipine generally adjusts selling prices, consumer sentiment and demand for purchasing non-essential items such as precious metal watch would be suppressed.
• The biggest challenge is that ceiling in gold watch industry is not high. It’s not easy to create new imagination space in a segmented market, which would affect valuation expansion.
• Due to the concerns on the future growth potential and profitability, we’e not optimistic about the outlook of Hipine. We think the valuation of Hipine could be lower than peers.

• On 19 September, Boyu completed the auction share transfer to take its Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) shareholding to 55.91% of outstanding shares.
• Pursuant to Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, Boyu is required to make a mandatory unconditional general offer at HK$6.67. The offer should open by 26 September.
• The offer price is unattractive, suggesting a low chance of breaching the public float requirements (23.4% of outstanding shares). At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.9%/10.0%.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
• I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

• At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.
• TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.
• The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
• KKR’s lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It’s not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
• Abu Dhabis’ ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.

• The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• We see 7 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

• HSI tested new highs before fading, as weak breadth and strong option volumes highlighted diverging signals in Hong Kong equities.
• Technically, HSI may have reached a level from which minor corrections have started.
• Option trading activity surged, reaching its busiest day since November, even as overall market momentum faltered.

• IPO leaves upside on the table: Priced at HK$71.6/sh (~US$24.1bn EV), Zijin Gold lists at ~8× 2026E EV/EBITDA — in line with peers despite offering far stronger growth.
• Fastest-Growing gold major challenger: Output set to rise ~20% CAGR to 2027E (2.1Moz), versus flat-to-low growth for Newmont, Barrick, and peers.
• Fair value HK$95/sh (+33%): Base case target on 2026E EBITDA at 8× peer multiple; risks include gold price volatility, execution of Wassa/Sepon/Raygorodok ramps, and governance overhangs.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2025 index rebal event.

• Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)  announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share. 
• The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties holding 37.86% (at the time), bought Jinke Property (000656 CH)‘s 18.05% stake at auction on the 30th March, triggering an unconditional MGO (once completed). 
• The “Auction Transfer” was subject to CSDC oversight, which has now been satisfied/completed. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 26th September. 

• Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.
• Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.
• Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.

• In our previous insight from September 2 we suggested if BYD (1211 HK) reached 102 could have been a good BUY signal. 
• It took a bit more than a couple of week for the stock to bottom at 102.80 (this week), then rally 10%  to 113.50. Impressive, but….
• … it could be a Bear rally, so in this insight we will try to assess BYD upside potential, and suggest some tactical positioning for the next few weeks.

• Medcaptain Medical Technology (MMT) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and Huatai International.
• Medcaptain Medical Technology is a global medical solution provider specializing in life support, minimally invasive intervention, and in vitro diagnostics. 
• Its products are widely used across hospitals, clinics, testing facilities, and home care scenarios, addressing the needs of critical care, surgery, and diagnostics.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
• Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• Currently, we see 11 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, holds 24.6%. Two senior management – past & present – hold a further 20.2%. 
• ANE’s share price is up 29% YTD, but 27% adrift of its November 2021 IPO price. 

• Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) (LP), a precision intelligent manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
• LP provides cross-sector, vertically integrated development and intelligent manufacturing solutions—from components and modules to systems—for global clients across consumer electronics, automotive electronics, communication and data centers, and other end markets.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Genfleet raised HKD 1819m (USD 233m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, September 18th.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
• In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

• Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
• Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps’ average multiple.
• We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto’s higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.

• ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) is on a halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
• I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.
• I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.

• Butong Group is looking to raise up to US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Butong has been able to achieve strong topline momentum of 57% CAGR from FY22 to FY24, whilst expanding its margins. 
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• After sinking to 10-year lows in January,  Health And Happiness (H&H) ’s stock has rebounded more than 75%, raising the question of whether operations are finally turning the corner.
• With signs of stabilizing growth and improving returns across product categories, 1H2025 results seem to signal the end of years of investor agony.
• Nutritional supplements now contribute to 65% of H&H’s revenue – Swisse’s strong positioning in the fast-growing anti-aging category underpins future growth.

• Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing <1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
• Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
• Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the impact of the new selection methodology for the December 2025 and March 2026 rebal/review events.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

• Down 18% in the past month, fundamentals for AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK), one of China’s leading aviation/defense plays, still appear demanding.
• Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• China gold jewelry demand slumped in 2Q2025, while investment demand for coins and bars remained resilient amidst rise in gold prices, according to data released by China Gold Association.
• If gold rally continues, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) faces heightened demand growth risk due to reliance on the competitive, price-sensitive, consumption-driven jewellery segment.
• Chow Tai Fook’s 140% YTD rally reflects optimism on branding-driven earnings growth, but stretched valuations overlook downside risks to growth if gold prices keep rising.

• Chery Automobile (9973 HK) is a Chinese automobile manufacturer. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion.
• I previously discussed the IPO in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case and Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case. 
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable.

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• Context: The Alibaba (9988 HK) / Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is looking to raise around US$141m from a primary placement.
• The deal is a small one, representing 3.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 1.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

• A financial group backed by Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma has made a major foray into digital assets, investing $44 million to acquire 10,000 units of Ether, the native token of the Ethereum blockchain.
• Yunfeng Financial Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed company in which Ma holds an 11.15% stake, disclosed the acquisition in a regulatory filing Tuesday. The company said it purchased the Ether on the open market using internal cash and would classify the asset as a long-term investment on its financial books.
• The purchase marks a growing trend of publicly traded companies adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets, a strategy known on Wall Street as digital asset treasury, or DAT.

• Yusys Technologies (300674 CH) is looking to raise around US$350m in its upcoming H-share listing.
• Yusys Technologies is a PRC leading fintech solution provider operating in the domestic and overseas market, providing full-stack product-oriented technology solutions to a wide spectrum of financial institutions.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• China has vigorously restricted the use of antibiotics. Even for novel antibiotics, they won’t replace old antibiotics completely considering higher price/the difficulty of changing prescription habits of existing clinical guidelines.
• The NMPA’s approval standards for new antibiotics are becoming increasingly strict. So, regulatory agencies’ evaluation of the true efficacy of TNP-2198 may lead to the delay in its market launch. 
• Post-Money valuation after Series E financing reached RMB2 billion. Valuation of TenNor could be lower than peers Zai Lab and Everest Medicines who already have commercialized products on the market.