Category

Consumer

Consumer: Olam Group, LG Energy Solution, Tesla Motors, Sappe Pcl and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Olam Unlocks Value Through the Sale of 35.4% of Olam Agri to SALIC
  • LG Energy – LFP Disruption Could Mean Marginalisation Within Big 3
  • Tesla Hits Bulk Buyers With Demand for Damages if Cars Are Resold Within a Year
  • SAPPE: MOGU MOGU Boost Earnings Momentum in 2022-24

Olam Unlocks Value Through the Sale of 35.4% of Olam Agri to SALIC

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Olam Group (OLG SP) issued an update regarding its reorganization process today to announce the sale of a 35.4% stake in Olam Agri to the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company.
  • The transaction assigns a valuation (equity) of S$4.7bn for the Olam Agri-Business, which is around 69% of Olam Group’s current market cap.
  • This is almost 2.0x the implied equity value of the Olam Agri-Business at the current share price of Olam Group, and suggests an upside of 33.8%.

LG Energy – LFP Disruption Could Mean Marginalisation Within Big 3

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei reported today on rumblings between Korean battery suppliers and their American customer OEMs. 
  • The crux of the dispute is about technology access and risks of technology leakage which are normal in the scheme of things.
  • However, expiring LFP patents which we have flagged are likely to result in this dispute going badly for battery suppliers.

Tesla Hits Bulk Buyers With Demand for Damages if Cars Are Resold Within a Year

By Caixin Global

  • Tesla Inc. is making some Chinese buyers sign a written guarantee that they will not resell their cars within 12 months, in an apparent effort to curb after-market speculation.
  • People who want to buy cars in bulk need to sign a letter of commitment that stipulates they must pay the firm liquidated damages of 20% of the order value if they resell the cars within a year of receiving them, Tesla told Caixin.
  • Whether such a guarantee is enforceable is another matter. A consumer lawyer who asked not to be named told Caixin that Tesla would have little chance of holding buyers to such rules under Chinese consumer law, which allows people to freely dispose of the goods they purchase.

SAPPE: MOGU MOGU Boost Earnings Momentum in 2022-24

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We reiterate our BUY rating for SAPPE with a target price of Bt32.0 based on 22xPE’22E,close to its five-years average trading range and average of Asia-ex Japan consumer staple sector
  • SAPPE is beverage exporter with 65% of sales from oversea. In 2021, logistic cost surged to Bt341m (+251%YoY) as it provides a freight contract for distributors and pass most
  • Average container freight decreased to US$8800 per 40ft box in March 2022 from it peak at US$10,000 per 40ft box in Sep 2021. We believe freight rate to continues 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: JD.com Inc., Uniti Group Ltd, Yamaha Motor, aCommerce Group, Crown Resorts, Mynews Holdings Bhd, Ferretti SpA and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK): Overhang a Bigger Worry than Immediate Selling
  • Uniti (UWL): Competitive Bidding Situation As Macquarie/PSP Proposal Emerges
  • Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?
  • Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) – Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings
  • Acommerce Pre-IPO – Beneficiary of COVID However, Has Been Losing Market Share
  • JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?
  • No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence
  • Mynews Holdings (MNHB.KL) – 1 Qfy22 Results: Still In The Red
  • Ferretti IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

JD.com (9618 HK): Overhang a Bigger Worry than Immediate Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • We do not expect there will be huge selling in JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) immediately. However, there will be an overhang on the stock in the near to medium term.
  • JD.com could drop in the next few days as the ADR allotment is sold in the market. Shorts that have been built up could soak up some of the flow.
  • The big worry is the US$4bn of JD.com stock that Prosus will receive. It is likely they will look to sell and use the cash to buy back their own stock.

Uniti (UWL): Competitive Bidding Situation As Macquarie/PSP Proposal Emerges

By David Blennerhassett

  • Buying 13.5% below Morrison & Co’s Offer terms last week for Aussie broadband player Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) was the right call as a new (indicative, non-binding) proposal emerges.
  • Macquarie Asset Management’s Real Assets division and Public Sector Pension Investment Board are offering to acquire Uniti for $5.00/share, via a Scheme of Arrangement, an 11% premium to Morrison’s tilt. 
  • The Board of Uniti is currently considering the new proposal.  Morrison’s four-week exclusivity period kicked off last Friday. 

Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

By Arun George

  • The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00 cash per share, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison & Co indicative offer of A$4.50.
  • Brookfield has joined Morrison & Co as joint bidders. This development suggests another round of bids for Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU).
  • The A$5m fee to break the Morrison/Brookfield exclusivity pales in comparison to Connect consortium’s A$340m premium to the Morrison/Brookfield offer. Expect Connect consortium to secure due diligence access. 

Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) – Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings

By Travis Lundy

  • Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced a short-term buyback. 3 months, 3%. It isn’t huge but it helps with the TOPIX FFW changes to come in two weeks. 
  • It also helps with the extra overhang from last year’s selldown and the significant cross-holding overhang which exists. 
  • But the shares are very inexpensive vs peers when one looks at consensus forward earnings and EBIT, and better growth is expected too.

Acommerce Pre-IPO – Beneficiary of COVID However, Has Been Losing Market Share

By Clarence Chu

  • ACommerce Group (ACOM TB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Acommerce is an ecommerce enabler providing end-to-end and ala carte ecommerce solutions for brands in Southeast Asia (SEA). 
  • Acommerce has been a key beneficiary of COVID, however, has been recording unexpectedly weak margins, suggesting that it does a lot of logistical heavy lifting. 

JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) has been able to sustain its relative market share gains, in Chinese online retail sales, over the past two years, despite increased competitive pressure.
  • Recent weakness in its margin progression trajectory has cast doubts on its ability to realise its potential for long-term margin expansion.
  • With net cash at 31% of its market cap, relative valuation levels seem attractive.

No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Perth Casino Royal Commission has found Crown Resorts (CWN AU)‘s casino in Perth, Western Australia, is “not suitable” to hold a gaming licence.
  • This follows the findings in New South Wales and Victoria that two of Crown Resort’s other subsidiaries were either not suitable to be granted a casino license or not suitable.
  • As with the recently announced AUSTRAC proceedings, Blackstone would have been well prepared for this latest development.

Mynews Holdings (MNHB.KL) – 1 Qfy22 Results: Still In The Red

By Maybank Research

  • Maintain HOLD with lower TP of MYR0.80
  • A disappointing quarter
  • Improved topline growth dragged by higher opex
  • Cut FY22-FY24 earnings estimates

MNHB’s 1QFY22 results were below our and consensus expectations due to higher-than-expected operational expenses related to its CU store expansion. Going forward, topline growth should see strong momentum in tandem with relaxed movement restrictions but start-up losses from its new CU stores may hinder group earnings recovery. Hence, we lower our FY22-FY24E earnings estimates by 17%-80%. Rolling forward our valuation base year to FY23, our TP is lowered to MYR0.80 (pegged on an updated normalised mean PER of 29x vs. 32x previously).


Ferretti IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Luxury Italian yacht maker Ferretti Group plans to raise US$248.4m at a market capitalisation of US$1.1bn and a post-money EV of US$807m at the midpoint of the IPO price range.
  • Ferretti’s revenues suffered with COVID-19 and ongoing issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and China-US trade tensions would only put further pressure on the company.
  • We think Ferretti’s shares are fairly valued at the indicative IPO price range given the current volatility in the market, political turmoil and lack of investor confidence.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Uniti Group Ltd, Kadokawa Dwango, JD.com Inc (ADR), Hana Tour Service, Ruchi Soya Industries, Ferretti SpA, Lotte Confectionery and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Uniti Group (UWL): New Bidder in the Fray?
  • Kadokawa – 12m Unit Sales and the Prospect of Live Service
  • JD.com Tencent Distribution – Updates on the Now US$15bn Overhang and the Prosus Angle
  • WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview
  • Ruchi Soya Placement – Almost Akin to a Relisting
  • Ferretti IPO: Things Have Gotten Worse Since Previous Attempt to List in Milan
  • A Merger Between Lotte Confectionery and Lotte Food: An Alpha Generating Event

Uniti Group (UWL): New Bidder in the Fray?

By Brian Freitas

  • A week ago, HRL Morrison made a non-binding, preliminary and highly conditional offer for Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) at A$4.5/share in cash, subject to due diligence and other conditions.
  • Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) traded up 10.7% today to A$4.67/share on high volumes and trading was halted an hour before market close.
  • News reports indicate that Macquarie Asset Management and PSP Investments are likely to make an offer at A$5/share. Expect an announcement in the next 24 hours.

Kadokawa – 12m Unit Sales and the Prospect of Live Service

By Mio Kato

  • As widely expected From Software’s Elden Ring title has proved a smash success selling 12m units within its first 17 days. 
  • That puts the game in rare territory and establishes the Kadokawa subsidiary as one of the premier global developers. 
  • There is also some potential for live services here which could add to the appeal for Sony.

JD.com Tencent Distribution – Updates on the Now US$15bn Overhang and the Prosus Angle

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457.326m Class A ordinary shares of JD.com.
  • While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a closer look at Prosus and its possible motivation/intention with its JD.com stake.

WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • WISE Tour is another fast-growing theme index in Korea with an AUM of ₩0.23T. The next rebalancing will be on April 15. So, the rebalancing trading is on April 14.
  • Although the flow size of this ETF rebalancing is not substantial, it seems clear that the flow/price (direction) correlation is at a level we should pay attention to.
  • Those expected to receive a meaningful flow impact at this point are: (LONG) Hana Tour, GKL, & Yong Pyong Resort / (SHORT) Hanjin KAL, Ananti, & SK Rent A Car

Ruchi Soya Placement – Almost Akin to a Relisting

By Clarence Chu

  • Ruchi Soya Industries (RSI IN) is looking to raise up to US$560m via a follow-on public offer.
  • The deal is almost akin to a relisting, as the free float was just at 1% prior to this deal. 
  • Given the tight float, instead of discussing its track record , we will discuss the timeline of events leading up to the deal, past performance and undertake a peer comparison/valuation. 

Ferretti IPO: Things Have Gotten Worse Since Previous Attempt to List in Milan

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • The Italian luxury yacht maker, Ferretti SpA (FER IM) , has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise net proceeds of around US$272m.
  • The company previously filed for an IPO in Milan in 2019 targeting a market value of around EUR1.8bn (US$1.2bn), which was scrapped claiming a “weak market”.
  • Ferretti’s revenues suffered with COVID-19 and ongoing issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and China-US trade tensions would only put further pressure on the company.

A Merger Between Lotte Confectionery and Lotte Food: An Alpha Generating Event

By Douglas Kim

  • On 23 March, it was announced that Lotte Confectionery (280360 KS) (market cap of 744 billion won) will merge with Lotte Food (002270 KS) (market cap of 395 billion won).
  • We believe this merger will have a positive impact on the shares of Lotte Confectionery and Lotte Food.
  • Lotte Confectionery and Lotte Food are not currently included in the KOSPI200. There will be a growing likelihood that the combined entity could be included in the KOSPI200 index. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Singapore Press Holdings, Pinduoduo, British American Tobacco PLC, ABHotel Co Ltd, Siam Wellness Group, Tosho Co Ltd, Health And Happiness (H&H), Carlsberg A/S and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SPH Shareholders Agree to SPH EGM & DIS – Deal Done So Now It’s Arb+Option
  • Pinduoduo 4Q21: A Big Compromise
  • Top Picks for Dividend Growth Stock – Mar 2022
  • AB Hotel (6565): Raising TP; Profit Recovery Ahead of Industry; New Store Development to Restart
  • SPA: Reopening Recovery Play Post 2021 Bottom
  • Tosho (8920): Earnings Forecast Update; Recovery in Membership Just Beginning
  • Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Ronshine China Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Zhenro Properties
  • Carlsberg: A Challenging Year Ahead

SPH Shareholders Agree to SPH EGM & DIS – Deal Done So Now It’s Arb+Option

By Travis Lundy

  • Topday, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) shareholders met in an EGM and a Scheme Meeting to approve the takeover of SPH and distribution of SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) units.
  • Shareholders passed resolutions at both meetings, meaning the Cuscaden Peak Pte acquisition is approved. 
  • This means we move to next steps, which is choosing the Consideration, and possible MGO Chain Offer on SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)

Pinduoduo 4Q21: A Big Compromise

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pinduoduo (PDD US) shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company’s revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.
  • Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.
  • Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.

Top Picks for Dividend Growth Stock – Mar 2022

By Cappuccino Finance

  • British American Tobacco is one of the leading tobacco companies in the world. They operate in 180 countries around the world, and have 12% of market share in the industry (2nd most)
  • Along with their biggest rival, Toronto-Dominion, Royal Bank of Canada is one of my favorite stocks. 
  • Larger military budgets around the world means more revenue for defense contractors like Raytheon

AB Hotel (6565): Raising TP; Profit Recovery Ahead of Industry; New Store Development to Restart

By Mita Securities

  • We updated our earnings forecast for AB Hotel (6565, the company) and raised our target price to 1,600 yen from 1,400 yen. We reiterate our Buy rating.
  • On January 31, the company announced 1-3Q (Apr-Dec) FY3/22 OP of 667m yen (+757.0% YoY; OPM 14.1%), 74% progress toward the company’s full-year guidance of 900m yen
  • We raised our OP forecasts from 681m yen to 929m yen (+1,995.4% YoY; OPM 14.7%) for FY3/22, 1.355bn yen to 1.495bn yen (OPM 21.2%) for FY3/23

SPA: Reopening Recovery Play Post 2021 Bottom

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt8.30, based on DCF (WACC of 9.8% and Terminal Growth of 3.5%), implying 25.9xPE’23. We see attractive play on reopening, upon the progress 
  • Its 4Q21 net loss was at Bt46m, which continued for 7 consecutive quarters, attributed mainly to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
  • SPA’s 2021 net loss was at  Bt287m, pressured by weak revenue growth, which drop 61%YoY upon brief closure of spas and massages in Jan 21 and end of Apr-Sep 21.

Tosho (8920): Earnings Forecast Update; Recovery in Membership Just Beginning

By Mita Securities

  • We updated our earnings forecast for Tosho (8920, the company) and maintained our target price at 2,300 yen. We reiterate our Buy rating.
  • On February 3, the company announced 1-3Q (Apr-Dec) FY3/22 OP of 1.616bn yen (+55.0% YoY; OPM 10.6%)
  • We changed our OP forecasts from 2.464bn yen to 4.403bn yen (+307.7% YoY; OPM 16.2%) for FY3/22, 4.466bn yen to 2.732bn yen (OPM 12.6%) for FY3/23

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Ronshine China Holdings, Sunac China Holdings, Zhenro Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Carlsberg: A Challenging Year Ahead

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The recent decline in Carlsberg’s share price do not seem to fully reflect the upcoming decline in Return on Capital’s results.
  • The company underperforming its major peers, including asset impairments, lower volumes, sales and margins will likely overshadow this year’s results, according to the company.
  • The past few years have been particularly hard for beer brewers. Pandemic lockdowns had a devastating impact on on-trade channels and now cost-push inflation is squeezing margins.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: CJ ENM, Pinduoduo, Farm Fresh Berhad, Ferretti SpA, Premier Anti-Aging, ASICS Corp, Hindustan Unilever and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WISE Media Contents (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview
  • Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q21, Undervalued Growth Rate and Record Profit Since IPO, Buy
  • Farm Fresh IPO Trading – Solid Subscription, Should Come in at a Premium to Domestic Peers
  • Ferretti IPO: At Best Fairly Valued
  • Premier Anti-Aging Company:  Getting to an Interesting Level
  • ASICS (7936): Time for a Bounce
  • Pick of the week – HUL

WISE Media Contents (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • WISE Media Contents rebalances every quarter in January, April, July, and October. The effective date for the upcoming rebalancing is April 15.
  • The gap between the rebalancing weight change estimations based on the float-adjusted market caps and the actual implementation of the ETF operator (TIGER) is not significant.
  • Following stocks are worth paying attention: (Short) Jyp Entertainment, S.M.Entertainment, Studio Dragon, Jcontentree, and SBS Contents Hub / (Long) CJ ENM, DearU, D&C Media, Genie Music, and IHQ

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q21, Undervalued Growth Rate and Record Profit Since IPO, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • PDD’s total revenue growth was low 4Q21, as the company gave up on direct sales.
  • However, we believe the revenue growth will bounce back in 2023.
  • PDD cut sales and marketing expense, so we believe operating margin will improve in following two years.

Farm Fresh IPO Trading – Solid Subscription, Should Come in at a Premium to Domestic Peers

By Clarence Chu

  • Farm Fresh Berhad (FF MY) raised around US$239m in its Malaysia IPO. 
  • In our view, the firm’s stronger margins and better growth potential warrants a premium to its other domestic peers.
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates since then and the trading dynamics.

Ferretti IPO: At Best Fairly Valued

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Ferretti, a leading yacht builder based in Italy, started book building to raise up to USD 302m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s key product segments, operating metrics, financials, and industry. We also compared the company with a close peer.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We will run the deal through our ECM framework and provide an update on the deal.

Premier Anti-Aging Company:  Getting to an Interesting Level

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • We last wrote on this relatively small Japanese cosmetics company in September 2021 suggesting that it could be worth keeping an eye on given its cheaper valuation compared to peers.
  • Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares are down 80% from the peak, mostly because it was sold-off alongside the low quality names in Mothers.
  • It seems early to turn outright bullish on Premier Anti-Aging yet. However, if you are short other unprofitable names in Mothers, we think Premier Anti-Aging is a sensible long hedge.

ASICS (7936): Time for a Bounce

By Mark Chadwick

  • Demand for ASICS running shoes remains strong. That should become clear as factories reach full capacity and shipping problems recede.
  • Profit margins will expand due to less discounting and an improved channel mix. 
  • We turn bullish following a 30% decline from 52-week high. The stock is now trading at undemanding multiples versus peers.  

Pick of the week – HUL

By Edelweiss

  • HUL, the largest FMCG player in India, was formed by merging three subsidiaries of Unilever in 1956.
  • HUL’s portfolio of products covers a wide spectrum including soaps, detergents, skin creams, shampoos, toothpastes, tea, coffee, packaged foods and branded atta
  • Powerful brands and an envious distribution network are its primary strengths
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Alibaba Group, Yashili International Holdings, LG Energy Solution, Lotte Rental, Matahari Department Store, Hanon Systems, Bloomberry Resorts, Shoppers Stop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise
  • Merger Arb Mondays – Yashili, Razer, 51Job, Uniti, Link, Sezzle, Guodian
  • WISE Secondary Cell (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview
  • KOSPI 200 Rebalance in June 2022 Amid Portfolio Changes Post Outbreak of War in Ukraine
  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – All Eyes to the Podium
  • KRX Auto (KODEX ETF) Rebalancing Preview
  • Bloomberry Resorts: Recovery Cycle Has Arrived for This Manila-Based Casino Hotel
  • Focus on smaller stores to improve productivity

Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.
  • Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.
  • Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.

Merger Arb Mondays – Yashili, Razer, 51Job, Uniti, Link, Sezzle, Guodian

By Arun George


WISE Secondary Cell (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • WISE Secondary Cell rebalances every quarter in January, April, July, and October. The effective date for the upcoming rebalancing is April 15.
  • The flow impact/price correlation of small/mid-caps is shown to be at a meaningful level. Therefore, we may need to design long/short basket trading setups focusing on these small/mid-caps.
  • The following five stocks are expected to have a significant level of flow impact at this point: SKC, Soulbrain, Youlchon Chemical, Posco Chemical, and LG Energy Solution.

KOSPI 200 Rebalance in June 2022 Amid Portfolio Changes Post Outbreak of War in Ukraine

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the potential additions and deletions in the upcoming June 2022 KOSPI200 rebalance. The outbreak of war in Ukraine has impacted the potential additions/deletion candidates. 
  • These top 10 potential inclusions are up on average 10.8% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 9.1% YTD.
  • Among the potential inclusions, Ildong Pharm, Meritz F&M Insurance, Hana Tour, Dongwon Systems, and Lotte Rental have been materially outperforming the market in the past three months. 

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – All Eyes to the Podium

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Matahari Department Store’s results marked a turning point in terms of profitability, and this year will see the company back in expansion mode, with a new strategy in place.
  • Management is pushing hard to entrench its position in existing categories as well as pushing into new ones, with an omnichannel approach and new partnerships in place. 
  • Matahari Department Store has the potential for a re-rating as it regains its place on the winning podium amongst Indonesian retailers in very reasonable valuations.

KRX Auto (KODEX ETF) Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX Autos rebalances once a year in September. The effective date of the upcoming rebalancing is September 9.
  • The market cap difference between the top three stocks and the rest of the stocks is significant. So, the passive impact of the non-capped constituents is substantial.
  • Accordingly, this index rebalancing is well worth a preemptive position build-up. At this point, notable stocks from a flow perspective are Hanon Systems, Kumho Tire, and Halla Holdings.

Bloomberry Resorts: Recovery Cycle Has Arrived for This Manila-Based Casino Hotel

By Howard J Klein

  • We have been bullish on the broad Philippine gaming market because it has moved ahead dealing with covid. It is Asia’s second most robust gaming market.
  • The company’s Solaire resort at Manila’s Entertainment Zone just reported increases in mass revenue sector indicating that recovery is well underway. 
  • 4Q21 and total 2021 results do not include South Korea property due to lockdowns. But once reopened, it will be accretive to forward earnings.

Focus on smaller stores to improve productivity

By Motilal Oswal

  • According to our channel checks, the new smaller compact feature stores (of 20k-25k sqft) enjoy significantly better revenue/sqft (of ~1.5x) v/s the existing bigger stores (of 40k-50k sqft).
  • Management targets to double revenue over the next 3-4 years backed by: its strategy of adding 10-12% new stores annually, its initiative to revive SSSG to high single or double digit on improved new store productivity and focus on private labels, strong growth in the Beauty segment and ecommerce initiatives.
  • However, our revenue estimates are nearly 40% below the management.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Alphabet Inc Cl C, Singapore Press Holdings, JD.com Inc., Apple Inc, Godrej Agrovet Ltd, Jubilant Foodworks and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vulcan Value Partners Q4 And Annual 2021 Letter
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Yashili, WH Group, Uniti Group, Toshiba, China Conch
  • Tencent’s BIG In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares – The Likely Flows & Timing
  • GreenWood Investors Fourth Quarter 2021 Letter
  • Demand recovery across segments to propel earnings
  • Jubilant FoodWorks (Update): CEO quits adds risks on all fronts. Maintain REDUCE

Vulcan Value Partners Q4 And Annual 2021 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • We are value investors – business analysts with a long-term time horizon focused on purchasing publicly traded companies that are competitively entrenched at significant discounts to intrinsic worth.
  • After very strong absolute and relative returns through the first nine months of the year, all of our investment strategies lagged their benchmarks during the fourth quarter.
  • All of our portfolios are fully invested in world class businesses with stable values trading at a significant discount to intrinsic worth.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Yashili, WH Group, Uniti Group, Toshiba, China Conch

By David Blennerhassett

  • Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)‘s comments and answers about the SPH REIT Chain Offer may be misleading. 
  • China Mengniu (2319 HK) is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili (1230 HK) which may result in a number of “Potential Transactions”, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.
  • WH Group (288 HK) is two businesses – a US pork processor and a Chinese one – and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they’d like.

Tencent’s BIG In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares – The Likely Flows & Timing

By Travis Lundy

  • Tencent (700 HK) will deliver shares of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) this week in its in-specie distribution of 14.7% of the shares out of JD.com. 
  • Some people will NEED to hold. Some will NEED to sell. On a net basis, it is a short-term sell and a longer-term overhang.
  • The timing and execution are going to be quite interesting. There will be short-term opportunity.

GreenWood Investors Fourth Quarter 2021 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • GreenWood Investors is a mostly-long, deep value investment firm focused on areas of extreme pessimism, structural inefficiencies and low competition.
  • Our fourth quarter performance reflected a worldwide capitulation away from nearly everything except the large tech companies.
  • We want to be optimized for both the short, medium and long-term, and seek rare investments that look attractive from all perspectives.
  • We’ve given significant consideration to owning the big tech monopolies since 2012.
  • We’ve been finding highly compelling short opportunities in addition to maintaining a high sense of urgency in sifting through the wreckage brought on by the most recent market turmoil.

Demand recovery across segments to propel earnings

By Motilal Oswal

  • Demand recovery across segments to propel earnings Godrej Agrovet (GOAGRO) is likely to witness better demand across its segments of Palm Oil, Animal Feed (AF) and Crop Protection (CP).
  • Conversely, the palm oil business is likely to be a beneficiary of rising prices.
  • The palm oil prices rallied 42% YoY to USD1,383/t as of Jan’22..
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (Update): CEO quits adds risks on all fronts. Maintain REDUCE

By HDFC Securities

  • We have seen CEO changes for various other consumer companies in the past, and most changes have been value accretive.
  • However, we remain cautious until the new CEO showcases his execution capability.
  • His exit (along with past exits of many members of senior management) is certainly adding several risks.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Allego and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Powering the Zero-Carbon Future

Powering the Zero-Carbon Future

By subSPAC

  • As automakers race to build the electric future, EV charging companies are looking to capitalize on the energy transformation by building out a national network of chargers to kill range anxiety.
  • Despite these lofty ambitions, EV adoption remains slim across the US, with approximately 3% of all vehicles sold being electric
  • Allego, which has gone public through a deal with Spartan Acquisition Corp, is a bet on the future of the European EV market

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Astra International, Yashili International Holdings, Rakuten Inc, Hotel Shilla, Accor SA, Shoppers Stop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – A Glimpse into the Future
  • Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares
  • Rakuten Group (Neutral) – Bank IPO a Step Towards Unlocking Fintech but Mobile Worries Remain
  • Elimination of Purchase Limits at Duty Free Shops in Korea
  • Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe – Lucror Analytics
  • Focus on smaller stores to improve productivity

Astra International (ASII IJ) – A Glimpse into the Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) held an informative post-results analyst briefing that provided a glimpse into its future plans, with capex set to double in 2022 with a war chest ready.
  • Other than investing in expanding existing businesses and in areas such as EVs, Astra also has a pipeline of deals related to the growing digital ecosystem in Indonesia. 
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) is a proxy for the recovery in Indonesia’s economy through cars, motorbikes, and commodities but has an emerging digital and sustainability edge plus reasonable valuations.

Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Mengniu (2319 HK) is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili (1230 HK) which may result in a number of Potential Transactions, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.
  • The Potential Offer would involve a cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The recent privatisation of key peer Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) provides a guideline to the timeline from here.

Rakuten Group (Neutral) – Bank IPO a Step Towards Unlocking Fintech but Mobile Worries Remain

By Kirk Boodry

  • The pending IPO of Rakuten Bank could be worth ¥380bn (2x book) and boosts appreciation of a fintech business we think is worth ¥1,400/share
  • That is well above the current share price reflecting the valuation drag of an expensive mobile segment, which is expected to hit peak losses in Q1 22
  • We expect mobile break-even will take longer than expected and downside here offsets fintech excitement – we remain at Neutral

Elimination of Purchase Limits at Duty Free Shops in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Starting 18 March, the current $5,000 purchase limit at the domestic duty free shops will be abolished for the locals.
  • The removal of the $5,000 purchase limit at duty free shops in Korea should encourage purchase of luxury women’s apparel, bags, and cosmetics.
  • The removal of the purchase limit should help the major duty free operators in Korea including Hotel Shilla (008770 KS) and Shinsegae (004170 KS).  

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources.


Focus on smaller stores to improve productivity

By Motilal Oswal

  • According to our channel checks, the new smaller compact feature stores (of 20k-25k sqft) enjoy significantly better revenue/sqft (of ~1.5x) v/s the existing bigger stores (of 40k-50k sqft).
  • Management targets to double revenue over the next 3-4 years backed by: its strategy of adding 10-12% new stores annually, its initiative to revive SSSG to high single or double digit on improved new store productivity and focus on private labels, strong growth in the Beauty segment and ecommerce initiatives.
  • However, our revenue estimates are nearly 40% below the management.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Uniti Group Ltd, Yashili International Holdings, Mediaset Espana Comunicacion S, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI), Pola Orbis Holdings, Askul Corp, Ferretti SpA, S Hotels & Resorts PCL, Starbucks Corp, Green Tea Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Uniti Group (UWL AU) And Morrison & Co Enter Into “Exclusive Discussions”
  • Yashili’s Potential Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer from Mengniu
  • MFE/Mediaset España: Second Time Around
  • PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI) – Bringing the Bread Home
  • Pola Orbis: Our Preferred Choice Leading up The Reopening of Japan to Foreign Tourists
  • Askul Corp – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Margin Concerns Hold Back Shares Despite Beat
  • Ferretti Group Pre-IPO: Peer Comp and Valuation
  • SHR: Expect Rapid Recovery in 2022
  • SBUX: Howard Schultz is BACK
  • Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – Growing for the Sake of Growth

Uniti Group (UWL AU) And Morrison & Co Enter Into “Exclusive Discussions”

By David Blennerhassett

  • South Australian telecommunications company Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has announced it has entered into “exclusive discussions” with infrastructure investor HRL Morrison & Co for a potential acquisition.
  • Morrison & Co’s non-binding proposal has an indicative price of $4.50/share, valuing Uniti at A$3.1 billion.
  • The proposal has an exclusivity period up to 22 April.

Yashili’s Potential Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

By Arun George

  • Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced its controlling shareholder, China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili and several potential transactions.
  • If the transactions proceed, the potential privatisation offer is HK$1.20 per Yashili share, a 31.9% premium to the last close price of HK$0.91 (prior to the trading halt).
  • The potential transactions are subject to a number of pre-conditions and conditions. We think the potential offer is attractive.  

MFE/Mediaset España: Second Time Around

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Mediaset SpA (MS IM) intends to launch a takeover bid for Mediaset Espana Comunicacion S (TL5 SM). Consideration is €1.86 + 4.5 MFEA IM (€5.613 based on €0.834/ordinary share A).
  • 12% premium. Conditional on reaching 90% of voting rights (excluding those already controlled by MFE, implies 39.88%). Cash component to be fully funded by target’s net cash position.
  • The offer price seems reasonable. Gross spread is 7.3%, an interesting level considering that the offer will likely be successful and Mediaset España delisted in less than 6 months.

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI) – Bringing the Bread Home

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indonesia’s leading mass-market bread producer PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) booked a strong set of FY2021, with general trade driving growth, and greater efficiencies enhancing margins and FY2021 growth.
  • The company continues to improve its product mix and distribution to cater for more home consumption and also continues to push out into East and West Indonesia geographically.
  • Higher wheat prices are a risk but the company has bought forward and will increase prices if needs to be offset higher cost. Valuations are attractive versus history. 

Pola Orbis: Our Preferred Choice Leading up The Reopening of Japan to Foreign Tourists

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • With Omicron under control, Japan is expected to relax home quarantine requirements for foreign travellers some time or the other.
  • Meanwhile, Google Mobility data hints that domestic customers are starting to head back to places like shopping centres, suggesting an improvement in demand conditions.
  • Based on valuation and the price performance trend, long time underperformer Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) seems like the best option to capitalise on the reopening of Japan to foreign tourists.

Askul Corp – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Margin Concerns Hold Back Shares Despite Beat

By Kirk Boodry

  • Q3 22 results were in-line/ahead of consensus expectations but shares fell 7% today anyway
  • Operating profit fell 10% as improvements in operating losses for new businesses like Lohaco and logistics were not enough to make up for higher spending in the core B2B segment
  • Despite the decline, Askul shares have largely outperformed peers YTD on optimism over the planned launch of quick commerce business Yahoo!Mart announced in late January

Ferretti Group Pre-IPO: Peer Comp and Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Ferretti is a leading yacht builder based in Italy. The company is looking to raise up to USD 300m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s key product segments, operating metrics, financials, and industry.
  • In this note, we compare the company with its close peer and provide our thoughts on valuation.

SHR: Expect Rapid Recovery in 2022

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We maintain BUY rating and raise TP by +25% to Bt4.50 derived from 1x PBV’22E, to reflect better outlook post-COVDID crisis.
  • About 98%of its hotel properties have already resumed operation by the late last year.This along with complete opening up of international borders will be the key earnings drivers for 2022 
  • Maldives and Thailand international demand has shown growing trend since 2Q21 and been in continuing growth in 1Q22 following reopening countries especially in UK and Maldives.We expect strong earnings recovery 

SBUX: Howard Schultz is BACK

By Investment Talk

  • A quick memo this morning, as I perused the headlines and found that Howard Schultz, founder and two-time CEO of Starbucks, will be coming back to the company
  • The transition will be effective on April 4th, and Howard is expected to assist with succession planning
  • I am a big fan of Schultz, having read both ‘Pour Your Heart into It’ and ‘Onward’ in my younger years

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – Growing for the Sake of Growth

By Clarence Chu

  • Green Tea Group (GT HK) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Green Tea Group is a restaurant chain operator for fusion cuisine in China. 
  • As of the latest practicable date (LPD), it had a restaurant network of 236 restaurants covering 18 provinces, four municipalities and three autonomous regions in the PRC.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma