Consumer

• Eight months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is as cheap to its main asset as it was before.
• Sun Corp is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit. 
• Understanding what the options are (and the dynamics around hedging/exposure) is worthwhile.

• In 4Q24, Meituan’s revenue growth rate was 20% YoY with all businesses rising.
• The operating margin improved to 8.8% in 4Q24 versus about zero in 4Q23.
• We set an upside of 61% and a price target of HK$270. Buy.

• AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
• To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
• Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

• Today,BYD (1211 HK) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results. Timing: 24 March 2025, after market close.
• Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement is above the historically recorded movement.
• Implied volatility and options strategies: Discussion of implied volatility term structure and option strategies.

• A drastic shift by the TSE to focus on quality without increasing the number of listed companies by reducing the number of IPO companies is not very promising.
• TSE will raise the hurdle for listing maintenance criteria slightly, but it will ask companies to make a commitment to post-listing growth during the listing examination process.
• It’ll take time for quality of market to increase, and we expect that companies that are aware of listing costs with help from investors will naturally move to de-list themselves.

• Fu Shou Yuan had a sharp decline in performance in 2024. The performance in recent years has often missed management guidance, which makes us question the integrity of management.
• The “crisis” of Fu Shou Yuan has evolved from a short-term headwind to the failure of its long-term business model. Good dividends cannot conceal the problem of gloomy outlook.
• Valuation logic is undergoing a transformation – from a leading company with “high growth/stable cash flow” to a struggling company with “weak growth/questionable profit model”. 2025 performance may remain lower-than-expected.

• HSI started the week strong but reversed course as earnings reports pressured the market into week’s end.
• We examine the divergence between implied volatility and historic volatility.
• Option volumes climbed throughout the week, with Friday seeing the heaviest Call buying, though overall activity remained below the long-term average.

• Workman’s slower same-store growth can be blamed on its shift to mass market fashion and the choice of Workman Joshi as a banner, putting off male customers. 
• The outdoor and workwear retailer has now acknowledged the misstep and will rebrand the chain as Workman Colors while adjusting merchandise back to more apparel basics.
• This will take time to implement but could mean a return to form for the apparel retailer.

• A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
• A strong start to the week reversed sharply after key earnings releases.
• We examine the dislocation between implied and historic volatility and assess whether this week’s drop in implied vol was overdone.

• MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) committed to expanding in the U.S. with plans in place to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods via its diversified supply chain strategy.
• Key investor concern: Slower store expansion in Mainland China in 2025 may temper near-term sales and profit growth. Capital intensive overseas expansion could dilute potential returns.
• Miniso (MNSO US)’s accelerating shift toward higher-margin IP co-branded lifestyle products—a strategy poised to sustain double-digit revenue growth, makes it an attractive investment play in the lifestyle retail space.

• On Friday 21 March, LY (4689 JP) made an announcement it had received all the required approvals and would launch the Tender Offer on 24 March. 
• Some were upset about the price originally but unlike other deals, this one traded below terms for three months since original announcement. Three activish funds had pitched in their 30%.
• This is now trading tight, and will continue to trade tight. If you own, whether you hold through early May depends on whether you are bullish or bearish the market.

• Mohawk Industries’ fourth-quarter results showed a mixed performance amid ongoing industry challenges.
• The company reported net sales of approximately $2.6 billion, consistent with the previous year, although this included the benefit from two additional shipping days.
• Positively impacting the results were sales initiatives, restructuring efforts, and productivity improvements.

• Group 1 Automotive concluded the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 with a mixture of robust performance in some areas and notable challenges in others, particularly related to its U.K. operations.
• The company reported record quarterly and annual revenues, with the U.S. business showing strong execution across new and used vehicle sales, as well as parts and service.
• However, the U.K. segment, heavily influenced by the integration of Inchcape’s retail dealerships, faced macroeconomic hurdles largely tied to government mandates on zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs), which disrupted the conventional sales pipeline.

• Kenvue’s fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results reflect a mixed performance, characterized by both challenges and improvements.
• The company reported an organic sales growth of 1.5% for the year, which did not meet expectations partially due to a decline in demand for products related to pediatric pain and a reduction in distributor orders in Asia Pacific, notably China.
• Despite these setbacks, Kenvue expanded its adjusted gross margin by 200 basis points to 60.4% for the year and delivered an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.14.

• Skechers U.S.A., Inc. (Skechers) has posted robust financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, marking significant milestones in its business development.
• Skechers’ sales on a constant currency basis totaled over $9 billion, illustrating a 13% increase.
• The company’s net earnings increased by 26%, with a notable gross margin of 53.2% and a double-digit operating margin of 10.1%.

• Deckers Brands delivered a robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal 2025, signaling both high levels of growth and notable profitability.
• The company’s revenue increased by 17% compared to the previous year, reaching $1.83 billion, with significant contributions from the UGG and HOKA brands.
• The gross margins improved to 60.3%, and diluted earnings per share rose by 19% to $3.

• The sugar tax in Indonesia is plan to be introduced July this year, around Rp 1500/liter for sweetened packaged drinks including soft drinks, bottled tea.
• Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) tea product is Teh Pucuk Harum, that is widely sold in hypermarts and convenience stores, while Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) no longer owns Teh Sosro. 
• Expecting sentiment to be better, Short Mayora and Long Unilever. 

• CIE Automotive launches a 10%partial takeover offer at €24.00, offering a 7% premium to recent trading levels, taking advantage of recent share price weakness.
• Valuation suggests shares are undervalued; DCF and peer comps support a fair value of €31–33.
• Offer aims to boost liquidity, with potential future placements to improve free float and attract institutional investors.

Games Workshop Group (GAW) has declared its fifth dividend of FY25. We believe this reflects enhanced cash generation as a result of the success of the video game Space Marine 2, which has passed through its minimum guarantee income, on top of the strong growth provided by the FY25 launch of the latest edition of Age of Sigmar. GAW’s strong free cash flow growth in FY25 is evidenced by the relative step-up in the dividend versus profit growth from FY24 and when comparing the changes for profit and dividend in FY24 from FY23. We make no changes to our estimates beyond increasing the FY25 dividend to £5.20/share.

• The Hershey Company recently reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing various elements influencing its financial performance and outlook.
• The company addressed challenges such as elevated cocoa prices, sustaining growth despite market pressures, and strategically managing its product line.
• Hershey has been proactive in handling cocoa price volatility through hedging, allowing it to avoid paying market prices immediately.

• Friday Takeaway—delving a little deeper into UK small caps Friday Takeaway from UK Small Caps This will delve a little deeper on individual companies and focus on non-house stocks under £200m market capitalisation to raise awareness 14th March 2025 Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from Alpha Terminal from the current price on the day of publication.
• Top three shareholders are taken from the websites of the companies that we are writing about, unless there is a more up to date TR-1 notification RNS announcement.
• Disruptive changes could generate opportunities for these two companies ABDX Flowing Downhill NXQ Follow the Money Abingdon Health 6.75p £12.32m (ABDX) Financial Calendar: Year End June, Report October, Interims December, Report April Three Main Shareholders: Octopus Investments Limited 10.1%, Cannacord Genuity Group Inc 9.7% Mercia 9.3% Key Investment Points: Fund Raise, Acquisition, US office Opened, Growth should follow Interims to December 2024 are due to be reported by this lateral flow test contract research (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO).

• Botswana Diamonds 0.105p £1.3m (BOD.L) The diamond exploration Company recently announced securing Polymetallic Acreage following a comprehensive artificial intelligence driven exploration programme in Botswana.
• Eleven prospecting licences were applied for to secure the key polymetallic targets identified, with the licenses including Copper, Silver, Cobalt, Gold, Nickel, Zinc and PGM targets.
• The initial focus was on diamonds, however, this has been expanded to look for hidden polymetallic deposits. 

• When investing in a larger company, one can expect higher liquidity, higher expectations of endorsement of the activist investor’s views because of the large institutional holdings, and smoother communication.
• As cross-shareholding structures are beginning to break down, there’re many opportunities for activist investors to attack such companies because they couldn’t create value and grow due to underutilization of resources.
• Activist investors have invested in Japanese companies in the past, but never with such success. This success is largely due to a change in the environment.

• Carnival Corporation & plc recently reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2024, closing an exceptional year marked by solid financial performance.
• The company achieved record revenues and customer deposits, with net income improving significantly year-over-year.
• This performance was driven by robust demand, reflecting a continuation of the momentum observed over the past two years.

• Celsius Holdings, Inc. recently shared its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2024, along with the announcement of its acquisition of Alani Nu, a significant player in the U.S. energy drink category.
• The company’s fiscal performance indicates a robust revenue of $1.36 billion for the year, marking a 3% increase from the previous year, despite facing challenges that have affected many consumer packaged goods sectors.
• Key positives from the report include a solid 22% year-over-year volume growth, outstripping the overall energy drink category’s growth of 5%.

• In this insight, we discuss Dalton Investments which recently started to go activist on Kolmar Korea Holdings (024720 KS) and NAV valuation of this company.
• Our base case valuation of Kolmar Holdings is NAV of 475 billion won or NAV per share of 13,836 won, representing a 46% upside from current levels.
• Dalton Investments is likely to pressure Kolmar Holdings to increase share buyback and cancellations.

• The reorganization of Panasonic Holdings was far from restructuring its business portfolio, as it brought highly profitable subsidiaries and affiliates into the parent company while leaving low-profit businesses alone.
• Although Panasonic’s disclosure was successful as IR in instilling “expectations” in investors by showing targets, a possibility cannot be denied that it’s temporary phenomenon that came at market turning point.
• Now, 3 years after “TSE’s request,” many investors are looking to improve profitability by restructuring their business portfolios, and will likely demand steady results year after year.

• PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24, with advertising up by 17% YoY and commission up by 33% YoY.
• The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market.
• We conclude an upside of 71% and a price target of US$215 for the next twelve months.

• Total revenue increased by 34% and total sales volume increased by 32%.
• The operating margin improved to 4% in 2024, compared to 2% in 2023.
• We conclude an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$28.00. Buy.

• Corn rose 37% from its multi-year low in August until mid-Feb. Strong export demand for U.S. corn and adverse weather in South America supported a longer-term recovery.
• US Corn exports for the current MY have exceeded both the 5-year average & previous year. Export momentum has continued even as the dollar has strengthened sharply since October.
• 2024 drought in Brazil was the worst since 1950. No direct impact on crops but transportation was significantly disrupted. Key waterways/ports used for shipping were affected causing delays.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End after the company reported slightly below consensus 4Q revenue and EBITDA and provided initial FY25 guidance which bracketed the Street, as the shift to higher levels of licensed product sales and lower discounting, strong results from digital marketplaces, international growth and B2B expansion poise Lands’ End to continue to drive higher overall margins and increasingly position the company as a leading lifestyle resource.
• With FY25 positioned, with new licensed products coming online, as another year of metamorphosis at the company, we remain excited over the continued upgrades and higher returns, and reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

• Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.
• Lifeway’s board rejected Danone’s offers, claiming $27/share undervalues the company; CEO Julie Smolyansky increased her compensation.
• Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky, with Danone, control 50% of Lifeway, aiming to replace the board and negotiate a sale.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
• Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
• Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
• Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.

• With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
• We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

• Historical results as expected with a sales and profit decline
• The first 2 months of the year show a positive trend
• Market reaction to the results should highlight low investor expectations 

• Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and Amer Sports (AS US). Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24. 
• Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.
• The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.

• A detailed analysis of the earnings implied jump in Nike options compared to historical outcomes.
• Post-Earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies and magnitude based on beats and misses.
• The third quarter stands out for the size of earnings-day moves, while earnings misses have shown a distinct post-earnings performance trend.

• Trelleborg plant in the US to shut down in April, 2025
•  Israel, Prague plants too stop working in 2025
• Hangzhou to have car tire plant producing 9 million tires a year

• The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
• From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
• We conclude that it’s possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start – for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.

• Meituan (3690 HK) is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.
• The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.
• Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.

• Tesla’s stock has been in free fall, shedding nearly 50% of its value since mid-December, wiping out over $800 billion in market cap.
• The most recent 15% plunge on Monday marked Tesla’s worst trading day since September 2020, and the stock is now on track for its seventh straight week of losses—its longest losing streak since going public in 2010.
• This sharp decline is not a typical market correction but the result of a combination of fundamental weaknesses, political controversies, and competitive pressures that are raising serious questions about Tesla’s future trajectory.

• Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
• The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and…
• …that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.

• TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24, as shrinking game business became insignificant.
• The operating margin reached its historical high, which means music’s margin is high than game’s.
• We believe the stock price will be double at the end of 2025.

• While Vesync (2148 HK)‘s net profit grew 20.1% in FY24, there is a marked slowdown in 2H24 (+7.4%) vs. 1H24 (+37.5%), suggesting increased operating pressure. 
• North American sales slowed to 10.7% growth in 2H24, from 13% in 1H24. The deteriorating financial and operating performance affirmed that privatisation is an exit opportunity.
• Its PER discount (on privatiation price) to peers has widened to 35-38%, compared with 25-30% in Dec. Its US exposure makes it unable to reap benefits from China market stimulus.

• Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
• We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
• We cut LI’s TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.

• Emperador’s acquisition of Los Danzantes aligns with its “Contemporise, Premiumise, Internationalise” strategy, enhancing its premium Mezcal offerings.
• The Dalmore Distillery expansion, doubling capacity, will impact Emperador’s revenue mix 12 years post-completion.
• Whyte & Mackay’s sustainability initiatives include a Jura Biomass Boiler and carbon capture, targeting carbon neutrality by 2030.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target, and updating our projections after meeting with JAKKS management.
• We note since our last publication, the U.S. government has placed an additional round of 10% tariffs on China, JAKKS main manufacturing supplier.
• Further, given the current uncertain economic environment and worries over consumer spending, we believe the company’s key non-movie driven top line growth drivers will continue at a measured pace.

• Constituent changes to the S&P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&P500 Equal Weight Index.
• The Select Sector index trackers and S&P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
• The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF will be selling Broadcom (AVGO US) at the same time as the Select Sector and S&P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.

• Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang. 
• The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
• The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders’ backing.

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. 
• In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We see zero index changes based on the latest available data but we estimate there to be US$204mn one-way flows due to capping.

• Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.
• Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.
• We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.

• Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) has proposed seven related-party transactions worth over INR 31,500 crore, just months after its record-breaking IPO.
• Proxy advisors are sharply divided, with concerns around valuation, transparency, and fairness, raising governance red flags for a newly listed company.
• Despite likely approval due to promoter holding, investor trust hinges on how Hyundai communicates and ensures accountability post-IPO.

• Monster Beverage Company’s recent quarterly and full-year earnings provide insight into both the strengths and challenges faced by the company in a dynamic and competitive market.
• The company reported record quarterly net sales of $1.81 billion, reflecting a 4.7% increase over the prior year, or 7.8% on a foreign currency-adjusted basis.
• This growth was fueled by a strong performance in the global energy drink market, with particular strength in regions like EMEA and Asia-Pacific, where growth rates reached double digits.

• Stellantis’ full-year 2024 results present a period of transition and challenge for the company as it navigates a demanding market environment.
• The company emphasized a strong focus on product launches, stakeholder trust, and regional empowerment.
• Notably, Stellantis launched new models in both the U.S. and Europe, such as the Dodge Daytona, Wagoneer S, and Grande Panda, indicating a strategic push to capture consumer interest.

• Even if a company goes private due to listing costs, it is good for investors to shift to a more share price-conscious management in order to maintain the listing.
• Many companies want to take over management rights with the founding family, but find it not easy to continue as a publicly traded company and consider going private.
• New problems lie ahead in the coming years between founding families who chose MBO to inherit the management control of “family business” and MBO funds who have to Exit.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after reviewing the March catalog.
• With the March “The Power of Pretty” theme, Lands’ End has taken the next major step in creating a lifestyle driven catalog which can serve as a guide for multiple categories, offerings and looks for the Lands’ End shopper.
• Focusing on both “The Power” and “The Pretty” of many categories, the March catalog offers multiple complete looks.

• Hormel Foods Corporation recently held its first quarter earnings call for the fiscal year 2025, presenting a mix of promising developments and ongoing challenges.
• The company has demonstrated resilience with a top-line growth of 1% in organic net sales, meeting expectations despite a challenging environment marked by dynamic consumer conditions and supply chain pressures.
• Hormel Foods’ strength lies significantly in its value-added product portfolio, which continued to perform well, providing robust growth driven by brands such as SPAM, Applegate, Jennie-O, and Hormel Black Label Bacon.

• Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
• The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
• Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

• AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
• To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
• Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

• A meeting with CP ALL (CPALL TB) management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store expansion for 2025. 
• The company is moving towards opening larger-sized stores, with more RTE and RTD offerings and some parking and food vendors outside, which will help diversify merchandise offerings..  
• It is unclear what direction Seven & I’s restructuring will take, but looking through that, the company is trading on historically attractive valuations.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
• Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU). 

• Seven & I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
• This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
• But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.

• The TJX Companies, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding expectations in multiple areas.
• With net sales of $16.4 billion, which marks a 5% increase over last year’s adjusted figures, the company demonstrated consistent strength across all divisions.
• The driving factor was a 5% increase in consolidated comparable store sales, which stemmed from increased customer transactions.

• Home Depot’s latest financial results presented a mixed picture, with some encouraging signs of recovery despite a cautious outlook for the coming year.
• Total sales for fiscal 2024 rose 4.5% to $159.5 billion, though comparable sales for the year declined by 1.8%.
• However, fourth-quarter same-store sales showed improvement, rising 0.8%—breaking an eight-quarter streak of declines and exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% drop.

• PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
• The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
• Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.

• Light & Wonder reported a solid performance in their fiscal year, demonstrating growth across multiple segments.
• The company’s strategic focus on sustainable growth has been underscored by their expansion and strengthening of product offerings, resulting in record revenues and profitability.
• The acquisition of Grover Gaming’s charitable gaming business represents a strategic entry into a high-barrier market with favorable competitive advantages.

• Lowe’s Companies demonstrated a mixed set of results during its fourth-quarter earnings call.
• Positively, the company reported sales of $18.6 billion and a slight increase in comparable sales of 0.2% for the quarter.
• Over the entire 2024 fiscal year, Lowe’s generated $83.7 billion in sales, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.3% and earnings per share of $11.99.

• I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three news new deals discussed this week: Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), and Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Silk Logistics (SLH AU), ESR Group (1821 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), and Japfa Ltd (JAP SP).

• In Prime Market where 99% of companies already disclose some material in English, it is a step that is expected to expand the number of disclosure materials disclosed in English.
• Companies with 10-20% foreign ownership have followed the TSE’s request to disclose information in English. These companies remain reluctant to disclose information-rich materials in English.
• Companies with over 30% foreign ownership improved more than any other group by foreign ownership in disclosing information-rich materials in English, which is result of responding to overseas investor demand.

• Eicher Motors (EIM IN), through its brand Royal Enfield, is experiencing strong export performance driven by strategic global expansion in the middleweight motorcycle segment. 
• The unit in Thailand, serves as a key manufacturing hub, with a CKD assembly facility supporting both local and Asia-Pacific markets.
• Royal Enfield’s focus on retro design and competitive pricing attracts customers in Europe and Brazil, filling a niche left by premium brands.

• BMW plans to repurchase 10% of its share capital over five years, likely replacing the previous buy-back program to optimize capital efficiency.
• The share buy-back is expected to boost EPS and support stock prices, with a stronger impact on preferred shares due to lower liquidity.
• The Quandt family’s ownership stake could increase to approximately 54.36%, further solidifying their control over BMW.

• Zeon will develop BR and Yokohama will make tires with it
•  Facility to be installed at Zeon’s Tokuyama Plant in Shunan City in Japan
• Trial production scheduled for 2026 and mass production by 2030

• Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN)(BJL) is planning to raise about US$118m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand.
• It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand and is the second largest digital-first omni-channel jewellery brand in India in terms of revenue for FY24, as per RedSeer Report.

• Bama Tea (BT) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• BT mainly grew through franchising. Its broad portfolio boosts market reach. A shift to online sales and stable tea prices may improve gross margins.
• BT needs capital for expansion but faces challenges: a fragmented, slow-growing industry, declining franchise earnings, weak 9M24 tea-leaf sales, supplier/customer concentration, and this being BT’s fourth attempt at going public.

• Coupang’s recent performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 illustrates both advancements and challenges within the company.
• On the positive side, Coupang’s efforts in expanding its logistical and technological capabilities have yielded significant results.
• Over the past 12 months, the company reported nearly a $6 billion increase in net revenues, reflecting a 23% growth in constant currency, after excluding the acquisition of Farfetch and the gains from a fulfillment center fire insurance.

• Ever since Itochu Shoji acquired Familymart, it has tried to leverage the more than 16,000 stores to sell product from its many other interests, including clothing. 
• With Convenience Wear a clear hit, it is now going further, adding new cosmetics and other products for the young.
• It is also bringing in The Bathing Ape’s founder to turn Familymart into a new kind of Conbini-Variety store.

• CAVA Group, a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain, reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
• The company’s revenue increased significantly, driven by a 36.8% rise in CAVA revenue and 21.2% same-restaurant sales growth, primarily attributed to a jump in traffic by 15.6%.
• CAVA’s overall financial health appears solid, with an 18.8% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

• Keurig Dr Pepper’s (KDP) fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings release and subsequent discussion highlighted several key points about the company’s financial health and strategic direction.
• With constant currency net sales growth of approximately 4% and earnings per share (EPS) growth of 8% for the full year, KDP achieved results in line with its long-term performance algorithm despite a challenging operating environment characterized by escalating inflation and supply chain constraints.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• FLWS recently announced that Harry & David has opened a retail storefront in Huntington, New York.
• This is the first opening of a Harry & David store since it permanently shuttered 38 of its 39 stores, which were forced to close during the pandemic.
• This is a test lab for expanding Harry & David back into retail to leverage the strong brand equity that has been built through its large e-commerce business.