Energy & Materials Sector

• After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
• GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR’s indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair & reasonable. It is. 

• The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR’s NST stake.
• The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
• The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 

• Diamondback Energy reported its second-quarter 2025 results, showcasing its consistent focus on enhancing shareholder value through operational efficiencies and strategic asset management.
• The company continues to leverage its expertise in acquiring and optimizing assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, where it has historically demonstrated proficiency in cost reduction and improved execution.
• One of the highlights of the quarter included successful integration of previous acquisitions, notably Endeavor, which was executed smoothly without operational disruptions.

• Grasim’s Birla Opus has rapidly gained market share in India’s decorative paints sector, crossing the 10% organized market threshold in Q1FY26.
• Capacity is set to ~24% of organised industry, reinforcing a scale-led market share push even as incumbents intensify discounting in economy paints.
• With distribution densification, a service layer (PaintCraft), and premium skew, Birla Opus is building operating leverage; monitor execution through festive season and monsoon volatility.

• ONEOK’s financial results for the second quarter of 2025 underscore a mixed but somewhat promising performance, characterized by both strategic accomplishments and challenges in handling market volatility.
• The company reported a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA, marked by a 12% rise from the previous quarter, attributed to efficient synergy capture and a robust supply-demand balance.
• This performance suggests the integration of assets is beginning to yield positive earnings, an important step forward for the company.

• The Williams Companies recently reported robust second-quarter results for 2025, indicating continued strong demand across its extensive asset footprint.
• Positives from the earnings report include the achievement of record summer demand on the Transco pipeline, demonstrating significant operational capacity to manage increased natural gas flow.
• The company placed six major projects into service, showcasing effective project execution, often ahead of schedule and under budget.

• Battery-Sector rotation is heating up in Korea as active ETFs sharply boost LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, signaling renewed sector focus amid ESS growth and easing valuation pressures.
• Watch for supply-demand dislocations during battery-sector ETF rebalances; top-heavy names may see concentrated flows, amplifying trading intensity and driving larger-than-normal price swings.
• The 25% cap reversion could move LG Energy Solution down and SK Innovation up ~5pp, with flows hitting -0.2x/+0.6x DTV, potentially amplified by aggressive sector inflows.

• Revenue increased by 2.8% YoY to JPY9.9bn, driven by higher sales of optical products for laptops and tablets.
• Operating profit rose 8.9% YoY to JPY2.2bn, aided by improved profitability and segment repositioning efforts.
• Recurring profit decreased 23.6% YoY to JPY2.0bn, while net income attributable to owners dropped 56.0% YoY to JPY694mn.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• Currently, we see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 49 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• China’s July lending drop signals weak private sector appetite, while severe weather hampers outdoor construction.  
• Managed money participants trimmed net long futures exposure amid rising prices, signalling profit-taking.
• Bullish momentum has faded as prices dip below key moving averages and MACD signals growing seller control in the market. 

• Carpenter Technology Corporation delivered a strong performance in the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, culminating in the most profitable quarter on record for the company.
• However, this performance needs to be dissected to understand both the strengths and challenges that might influence future investment decisions.
• The company reported $151 million in adjusted operating income for the quarter, reflecting a 21% increase from the same quarter the previous year, and a 10% sequential rise.

• In the second quarter of 2025, Chevron Corporation delivered a robust financial performance, reflecting strategic accomplishments and operational efficiency.
• The company reported earnings of $2.5 billion, equating to $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings amounting to $3.1 billion or $1.77 per share.
• Several notable factors, including special items and foreign currency effects, impacted the earnings.

• • 2Q25 gross production averaged 10,258 boe/d, consistent with prior indications.
• • Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan will begin in early September.
• The well will target the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals.

• DT Midstream, a company focused on the transport and storage of natural gas, reported its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing an active period with several key developments.
• The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range as well as its early outlook for 2026, projecting stability in its financial targets.
• This assertion was supported by strong performance in the quarter, albeit with a slight decrease in adjusted EBITDA by $3 million to $277 million compared to the prior quarter.

• Eastman Chemical Company, navigating through a complex economic landscape, presented a mixed financial performance for the second quarter of 2025.
• The backdrop of the company’s second-quarter result is deeply intertwined with global trade uncertainties, most notably the continued fluctuations and implementations of tariffs and trade regulations.
• These external pressures have brought about both challenges and adaptations within the company’s operational strategies.

• Enbridge Inc. has reported a robust second quarter for 2025, with record-setting EBITDA primarily driven by its U.S. gas utilities and advantageous rate settlements in their Gas Transmission business.
• The organization is on track to reach the higher end of its EBITDA guidance for the year and expects to meet its Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) per share midpoint.
• The company’s sound financial position, evidenced by a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.7x as of June 30, is buttressed by earnings gains from recent U.S. gas utility acquisitions and sustained high asset utilization.

• ExxonMobil’s recent earnings call provided a nuanced overview of its current performance and future prospects.
• The company reported an outstanding second quarter, achieving its highest production levels since the Exxon and Mobil merger over 25 years ago.
• This production growth is credited to high-return, advantaged assets, with particular emphasis on the company’s operations in Guyana and the Permian Basin.

• What you need to know: • FRG reported premium coal quality results from recently intersected coal seam while driving the decline at the La Estrella Project, Colombia.
• • Analysis confirmed a calorific value of 13,846 BTU/lb, sulphur of 0.82%, low ash/moisture, and a Free Swelling Index of 4.
• • The coal was extracted from the 0.5–1.0m seam encountered during underground decline development.

• With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
• Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
• Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.

• US Group II light-grade export-price premium to vacuum gasoil holds close to lows in Q1 2025.
• Lower base oils margins and drop in outright export prices suggest recent tightness of light-grade supplies is easing.
• Drop in export prices facilitates removal of any such surplus volumes, keeping fundamentals balanced for longer in domestic market.

• Global base oils margins stay more mixed but mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain firm output of the lubricants feedstock.
• Fob Asia light-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise, while heavy-grades stay more rangebound.
• FOB Asia Group II light-grade price-premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 June 2025.

• In Q1 FY2026/2, MORESCO CORPORATION (hereinafter “MORESCO” or “the Company”) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 8,516 mn, up 3.2% YoY, driven by higher sales both in Japan and overseas.
• Although demand in the automotive sector, which accounts for approximately 45% of net sales, remained sluggish due to lower vehicle production in Japan and the U.S., the impact was absorbed overall, as the Company’s all-round strategy proved effective in promoting diversification across regions, products, and applications.
• Operating profit jumped 174.4% YoY to JPY 520 mn, but ordinary profit declined 1.9% YoY to JPY 441 mn, and net profit fell 4.9% YoY to JPY 237 mn, both weighed down by foreign exchange losses. 

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm in narrow range, even if down from highs in Q2 2025.
• Firm premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output of heavy grades even amid signs of rise in surplus supply.
• FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade price discount to CFR UAE prices rises to highest in more than a year.

• CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) , a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
• CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer, and labels itself as a new energy materials company.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• West Africa’s gold belt has long been a hotspot for major discoveries, and Desert Gold Ventures’ SMSZ Project in Mali is shaping up to be something far bigger than just another deposit.
• With only 10% of its gold resources incorporated into its recent Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) and a strong projected IRR supported by a low all-in sustaining cost, the project is already showing the potential to become a multi-million-ounce mining camp.
• CEO Jared Scharf sees this as just the beginning, with a modular processing plant strategy enabling fast scalability, a pipeline of near-term oxide expansion opportunities, and exploration upside across more than 30 gold zones.

• Mineros reported Q2 financial results that came in well ahead of our expectations.
• MSA reported revenue of $182.4M (+37% YoY) vs. our estimate of $148.8M and OCF (after WC) of $59.8M vs. our estimate of $36.5M and $7.1M in Q2/24.
• MSA revised its cost guidance upward due to the higher gold prices and higher costs for the artisanal mining segment (margins maintained).

• Andean reported Q2 financial results that came in well above our expectations.
• The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs.
• Revenue was $73.7M (+6% YoY) vs. our estimate of $64.7M.

• Last week, TMC hosted a Strategy Day geared toward retail investors, during which management unveiled the NORI-D PFS and an Initial Assessment (IA) of NORI (ex-NORI-D) and TOML resources.
• It also provided an opportunity for investors and analysts to meet and interact with senior management, TMC’s board members, offshore and onshore partners Allseas and Korea Zinc, and representatives of sponsoring nations of Nauru and Tonga.
• During the discussions, TMC provided a glimpse into its longer-term strategy of evolving from a polymetallic nodule collector to an integrated metal refiner and processor, as well as recycler, with the aim of recovering and recycling battery and scrap metals and selling recovered metals without the need to continually mine new deposits, highlighting once again the serious environmental and sustainability goals TMC is striving for.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.

• Timing: BHP (BHP AU) reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.
• Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.
• Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.

• Varmora Granito Limited (6590052Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Goldman Sachs, JM Financial and SBI Capital.
• Varmora Granito Limited (VGL) is a leading Indian manufacturer and trader of varied types of tiles. As of FY25, its portfolio comprised over 3,500 SKUs.
• VGL generates 78.69% of its revenue from India, selling its products through both B2C and B2B channels. Its domestic revenue is primarily driven by its B2C channel.

• Cameco Corporation’s recent earnings provided a detailed overview of the company’s strong performance in the nuclear energy sector, bolstered by a favorable market environment.
• The corporation maintained its disciplined approach to operations and financial management, demonstrating resilience amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape and growing interest in nuclear energy as a clean energy solution.
• The positives from the earnings call highlighted Cameco’s strategic positioning and robust financial health.

• Jayaswal Neco has transitioned from financial distress to operational momentum, with blast furnace upgrades completed, capacity ramp-up underway, and debt refinancing on the horizon. 
• Removal of ARC stake sale overhang and scope for capacity expansion strengthen the investment case.
• If debt gets refinanced at 50% lower interest rate by Dec-25, it could double company’s PAT leading to potential re-rating

• Revenue increased by 8.3% YoY to JPY17.1bn, while operating profit decreased by 55.6% YoY to JPY385mn.
• The semiconductor production equipment industry faced weak demand, impacting sales; aerospace industry demand remained strong.
• The company revised its FY03/26 earnings forecast downward, expecting revenue of JPY67.2bn and operating profit of JPY2.5bn.

• International Paper’s second quarter 2025 earnings call revealed a transitional period for the company as it continues its strategic journey towards achieving $6 billion in EBITDA by 2027.
• The company is focusing on three core areas: closing the market share gap in North America despite softer markets in the U.S. and EMEA, addressing cost performance issues in its North American mills and EMEA operations, and maintaining its 2025 EBITDA guidance through commercial and cost improvements.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Cenovus Energy, a prominent Canadian oil company, faced several operational challenges and milestones in its second quarter of 2025.
• The company demonstrated resilience and effective crisis management, showcased by their handling of the Caribou Lake wildfire’s impact on operations.
• Despite the wildfire requiring the evacuation of over 2,000 workers and an orderly shutdown of their Christina Lake facility, Cenovus displayed robust operational recovery.

• Revenue decreased by 9.4% YoY, with operating profit down 18.6% YoY, and recurring profit down 18.0% YoY.
• Orders and order backlogs increased by 29.5% YoY, with a slight decline of 1.2% from end-FY03/25.
• Revenue increased by 8.8% YoY, with operating profit up 135.9% YoY due to profitable project inspections.

• Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.
• This year, GPRE announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.
• GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). 

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) listed in March and did not get Fast Entry to global indices since a large part of the IPO was allotted to domestic retail investors.
• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be added to one global index this month and could be added to the other global index in September.
• The stock is trading higher following the better than forecast results announced last week. The index inclusions could take the stock higher in the short-term.

• SICC (688234 CH) , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$260m in its H-share listing.
• In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
• We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

• In the past three months, LG Chem has announced two asset sales worth 1.6 trillion won including dermal filler and water filter businesses. 
• Due to worsening balance sheet and need to raise additional capital, there is an increasing probability of LG Chem selling a partial stake in LGES in the next 6-12 months.
• Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 414,325 won, which is 49% higher than current levels.

• On 11 August, SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS) announced that it will issue exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 125 billion won.
• The exchange price is 114,714 won, which is a 14% premium to the reference stock price calculated based on the market price.
• We are Negative on SKC’s EB issue of 125 billion won which is likely to put a negative sentiment on its share price.

The Metals Company’s (TMC’s) application for an exploitation licence through the US legislative framework provides the potential to accelerate the group’s plans and management now expects commercial operations to commence in Q327. The release of a technical report summary (TRS) of the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the NORI-D block provides further granularity, particularly on the anticipated economics. The capital markets event provided additional context and insights into TMC’s long-term strategic direction and future potential

• Cobra Resources 2.60p £20.63m (COBR.L) The mineral exploration and development Company advancing a Rare Earth Element (REE) discovery at its Boland Project in South Australia announced initial results from re-analysis of historical, uraniumfocused rotary mud drilling from a recently acquired tenement (EL 6742) that covers over 750km square of the prospective Yaninee Palaeochannel system.
• Results indicate the presence of a REE system with characteristics reflective of Boland on the Narlaby Palaeochannel 10-20km to the northeast.
• This significantly increases the scale of the ionic REE system within the Pidinga Formation amenable to lowcost, low disturbance In Situ Recovery. 

• 2Q25 WI production averaged 21,654 boe/d, near the top end of the guidance range (20–22.1 mboe/d).
• Gabon production was particularly strong at 8,563 bbl/d (guidance of 7.8–8.6 mbbl/d), driven by continued flow from the 4H well at Ebouri, which remains ~1,000 bbl/d (gross).
• Despite high H₂S concentrations, chemical treatment has proven effective.

• DNG reported Q2 financial results that were mixed relative to our expectations, missing on production results and beating on financials.
• Q2 revenue was $79.9M compared to our estimate of $78.6M and Q2 OCF (before WC) was $4.2M compared to our estimate of $4.0M.
• Management has updated its annual guidance to reflect ore supply headwinds seen in Q2.

HELLENiQ ENERGY delivered a resilient Q225 performance despite lower oil prices and the planned maintenance at the Elefsina refinery. Group sales fell 25.7% y-o-y to €2,433m, with reported EBITDA down 38.5% to €112m and adjusted EBITDA 4.7% lower at €221m. The relatively modest decline in adjusted EBITDA reflected higher output from the Aspropyrgos and Thessaloniki plants, stronger realised refining margins, improved domestic demand and a record international performance, offsetting the impact of the turnaround and a weaker petrochemicals performance. Adjusted net income was broadly flat at €72m (-1.4% y-o-y), while reported net income turned negative due to a significant decline in crude prices.

• Infinity Natural Resources (INR US)  came to market on January 31st pricing 13.25 million shares at $20.00 and opening at $22.16 for an 11.3% first-trade gain.
• After peaking early in its first week, INR has experienced steady downward pressure. July was particularly brutal, with the stock declining 18%—its worst monthly performance since listing.
• Infinity Natural Resources managed weakness from a broken IPO from its sector, Venture Global (VG). Six months later the sector winds have not calmed down.

• Context: The Champion Iron (CIA AU) vs. Stanmore Resources (SMR AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The trade targets ~12% return to the one-standard-deviation line.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• By restricting the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper pipes/wiring and leaving out ores, concentrates, and cathodes, the Trump administration destroyed the COMEX-LME spread in one fell swoop. 
• COMEX prices have plunged, and the spread now is 150 USD/ton from the highs of almost 3000 USD/ton, with high inventories on the COMEX probably needing to be dumped. 
• Short term copper prices may face pressure, but we see an excellent outlook for the longer term, given the elevated China copper imports, which rose 18% YoY in July. 

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has released its June 2025 quarterly report which provides a progress update on mining, exploration and development activities.
• Revenue of $33.0m was generated from gold sales at Boorara with another $1.52m received as an early release from the Phillips Find JV.

• Following our bullish call on iron ore, Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels, we are now less excited on iron ore and see it drift lower. 
• We expected iron ore to test the lower-end of the long-term band of 95-110 USD/ton (vs current spot of 102 USD/ton).
• While iron ore inventories/stocks at ports drift lower, mill margins have capped out and are not rising any further, leading us to call for a short-term decline in ore prices.

• There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) & Brickworks (BKW AU)‘s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.
• Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it’ll get done.
• For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.

• Axalta Coating Systems reported their Q2 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed picture of performance and challenges in various segments.
• The company’s record adjusted EBITDA of $292 million and adjusted diluted EPS underscore their ability to sustain profitability even in a volatile macroeconomic landscape.
• Notably, adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at over 22%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of hitting or exceeding their 21% target outlined in their A Plan.

• FMC Corporation’s second quarter 2025 results illustrate a mixed picture of operational outcomes and strategic pivots that impact its investment thesis.
• The company reported a slight increase in sales, with a 1% rise from the previous year, driven by a 6% volume growth.
• Despite the topline growth, pricing and foreign exchange created headwinds, each accounting for a 1% decline in revenue.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported a robust second quarter for 2025, demonstrating notable operational efficiencies and solid financial performance.
• The company recorded an adjusted net income of $81 million and an adjusted EBITDAX of $223 million.
• Capital expenditures for drilling and completions were held at $95 million, representing only 43% reinvestment of EBITDAX, which underscores the capital efficiency achieved during this period.

• Royal Dutch Shell’s second-quarter 2025 financial results reflect a company grappling with challenging macroeconomic conditions yet demonstrating resilience and strategic focus.
• The external environment painted a complex picture, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating commodity prices, which impacted trade flows and margins.
• Nevertheless, Shell delivered strong operational performance and significant cost reductions, affirming its commitment to strategic objectives set out at the Capital Markets Day (CMD) in March.

• The recent earnings for Vulcan Materials Company reflected mixed results for the second quarter of 2025, providing several insights into the company’s financial performance and operational dynamics.
• On the positive side, Vulcan demonstrated strong financial improvements despite facing significant weatherrelated disruptions.
• The company reported a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with margins expanding by 260 basis points.

• Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. reported its fiscal third-quarter results, demonstrating a mix of positive performance and ongoing challenges.
• The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.09 exceeded their own guidance, despite a decrease from the prior year’s comparable results due to the previous sale of its LNG business.
• This sale significantly impacted sales volumes, contributing to a 4% decline.

• Western Midstream Partners has recently signaled a major strategic shift by agreeing to acquire Aris Water Solutions in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $1.5 billion.
• This announcement follows Western’s strong Q1 2025 performance—highlighted by the successful commissioning of the North Loving plant, net leverage below 3×, and roughly $2.4 billion of liquidity—underscoring its financial resilience amid market volatility.
• Under the proposed terms, Aris shareholders may opt for 0.625 WES common units per share or $25 in cash (capped at $415 million), representing a 23 percent premium to Aris’s closing price on August 5.

• Element Solutions, Inc. presented a mixed set of results in their Q2 2025 financials, characterized by both significant growth in specific segments and persistent challenges in others.
• Key highlights from their conference call can be dissected into various positives and factors of concern surrounding the company’s operations and projected outlook.
• Starting with the positives, Element Solutions demonstrated robust performance in their electronics business, particularly within the assembly and wafer-level packaging products.

• China’s July steel exports hit highest year-to-date level since 1990, and S&P affirms A+ rating despite property and trade challenges. 
• Managed money participants turned net long in futures after prolonged bearishness, adding positions as prices neared the $100/ton mark. 
• Despite a recent death cross, prices remain firm above short-term MA, nearing bullish crossover, with Bollinger Bands signalling resilience and upside potential. 

• Antero Resources recently reported its second-quarter results for 2025, revealing a mix of positive and negative developments that reflect its operational strategies and market dynamics.
• On the positive side, Antero Resources has achieved notable improvements in capital efficiency, managing to increase its production guidance while reducing capital expenditures.
• This improvement is underscored by a 26% decline in maintenance capital requirements from $900 million to $663 million since 2023.

• BASF SE’s second quarter 2025 financial results present a balanced view of challenges and opportunities faced by the company in a complex macroeconomic landscape.
• The company reported EBITDA before special items of approximately EUR 1.8 billion, a decrease from EUR 2 billion in the same quarter the previous year, reflecting the pressures from global economic uncertainties and declining margins in its upstream Chemicals segment.
• Positives from the results include robust performance in the Agricultural Solutions segment, which saw a 21% increase in earnings driven by strong volume growth and improved margins across all regions, particularly North and South America.

• Sales declined 0.6% YoY to JPY63.2bn, while operating profit rose 126.9% YoY to JPY726mn due to higher petroleum sales.
• Revenue rose 2.3% YoY to JPY15.5bn, driven by increased kerosene sales volume and lower SG&A expenses.
• Revenue and profit increased in bike sharing and systems businesses, but operating profit declined in building maintenance due to costs.

• Antero Midstream’s second-quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted several financial and operational developments, reflecting a mix of positive and challenging aspects for the company.
• Antero Midstream, a vital player in the midstream sector, primarily focuses on gathering, compression, and water handling services.
• The investment thesis for Antero Midstream is built on its steady growth in operating cash flow, prudent capital allocation, and strategic positioning in connection to LNG facilities.

For the second quarter in succession, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has announced record revenue, adjusted earnings and operational cash flows, posting adjusted net EPS that was 7.7% better than our forecast and above the top of analysts’ expectations (source: LSEG Data & Analytics, 7 August). The main reasons for the outperformance were a 12.8% positive variance in silver production coupled with a 5.0% positive variance in gold sales, which were 7.6% (or 7,005oz) above production for the quarter. Together, these drove a US$38.6m (8.3%) positive variance in revenue, only partially offset by a US$12.1m negative variance in costs, resulting in a US$20.4m positive variance in earnings and a 4.5c positive variance in adjusted net EPS. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 2.1c/share (0.9%). At current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 84.0% from that shown below to US$2.65/share.

• Albemarle Corporation’s Q2 2025 financial results present a complex picture of both opportunities and challenges.
• The company reported net sales of $1.3 billion, which, while down year-over-year due to lower lithium market pricing, were bolstered by strong volume growth, particularly in energy storage and specialties.
• Adjusted EBITDA came in at $336 million, demonstrating year-over-year improvements in cost and productivity, despite the pricing pressure.

• NewMarket Corporation’s financial performance in the second quarter of 2025 highlights several key areas of stability and challenge within its business operations.
• During this period, the company reported a slight decline in net income, with $111 million or $11.84 per share compared to $112 million or $11.63 per share in the same quarter of 2024.
• Despite this quarterly decline, NewMarket achieved a record net income for the first half of 2025, reaching $237 million or $25.11 per share, up from $219 million or $22.87 per share in the first half of 2024.

• Alamos Gold Inc.’s recent earnings conveyed key operational updates for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing positive production results, strategic initiatives, and revisions to cost guidance.
• The company reported total gold production of 137,000 ounces, reflecting a 10% increase from the first quarter and aligning with quarterly guidance.
• This improvement was primarily driven by enhanced performances across all three of Alamos Gold’s mining operations.

• Revenue increased 41.0% YoY to JPY27.1bn, driven by growth in domestic and overseas agrochemical sales and technical fees.
• Gross profit rose 80.4% YoY to JPY9.5bn, with a gross profit margin of 35.1%, and operating profit reached JPY3.5bn.
• The company revised its FY03/26 forecast, expecting revenue of JPY109.0bn, with a 112.2% YoY increase in net income.

• The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
• There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It’s a big deal. 

• Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
• The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
• Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

• Liontown Resources (LTR AU)  is looking to raise around US$173m from a primary placement.
• The deal is a large one, representing 23.3 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 13.0% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Back on the 2 June 2025, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) and 42.92%-held Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would merge.
• TopCo, a new ASX-listed company, will acquire all of the shares in SOL and BKW via the issuance of TopCo shares: 1:1 for SOL and 0.82:1 for BKW.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with Scheme Meetings on the 10th September, and expected implementation on or before the 23 September. The IE Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Bharti Airtel
• UST yields ended mixed yesterday, with the curve twisting steeper, following a soft auction for 10Y notes that tailed by 1 bp.
• The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 3.71%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.23%. Equities rebounded from Tuesday’s dip, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

• Consolidated revenue decreased by 6.1% YoY, with operating profit down 41.0% and a net loss of JPY115mn.
• Domestic revenue declined due to lower contract manufacturing volumes, while Indonesian operations saw increased sales and profits.
• Revenue for special alloy powder rose, but overall sales and operating profit fell due to higher raw material costs.

• Revenue decreased 6.3% YoY to JPY13.1bn, with declines in Specialty Steel, Wire Products, and Induction Heating segments.
• Operating profit fell 55.8% YoY to JPY174mn, impacted by JPY133mn expenses for Dohken Co., Ltd. share acquisition.
• Recurring profit and net income attributable to owners dropped 55.7% and 57.2% YoY, respectively, due to lower operating profit.

• 2Q25 production averaged ~11,065 bbl/d, negatively affected by unplanned facilities-related downtime at the Ceiba field, as reported by Kosmos earlier this week.
• WI production in EG fell to 3,136 bbl/d (vs. 3,661 bbl/d in 1Q25).
• Remedial work is underway, with production expected to recover in 4Q25.

• Revenue for 1H FY12/25 was JPY126.4bn, achieving 95.0% of the forecast, with a 4.4% YoY increase.
• Operating profit for 1H FY12/25 rose 5.4% YoY to JPY7.6bn, achieving 104.7% of the forecast.
• The company forecasts FY12/25 revenue of JPY268.0bn, with a 9.1% YoY increase, driven by ink volume growth.