Energy & Materials Sector

• A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
• The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial & operational strength of Vedanta
• Dividend & delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.

• Kinterra increased its New World Resources (NWC AU) offer to A$0.063, which will be increased to A$0.064 and declared unconditional if Kinterra acquires 30% of voting rights by 11 July.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has five business days to match Kinterra’s offer. While CAML today lowered its FY2025 production guidance, it retains the headroom to return with revised terms.
• Trump’s recent copper tariffs support the case for the ongoing bidding war. Crucially, none of the bidders has declared their offer best and final. 

• Rubber Board undertakes nationwide EUDR sensitization drives  
• Geo-mapping and traceability systems scaled up across states  
•  Low-risk status to come under EU review in 2026

• Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.
• While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.
• Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include – LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN) (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names – Man Industries (India) (MAN IN) (+88%)

• Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd., China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, aiming to build a well-funded global powerhouse as gold prices reach record heights.
• Already listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, Zijin announced Monday that its subsidiary Zijin Gold International Co. Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
• The offering — jointly underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities — will float up to 15% of the unit’s shares, with an overallotment option of an additional 15% of that tranche.

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• China Northern Rare Earth issued a mid-year earnings guidance of ¥900–960 million for H1 FY2025, marking a 1,900%+ YoY increase and reflecting strong volume recovery and operational leverage.
• The company is on track to meet our full-year net profit estimate of ¥2.33 billion and EPS of ¥0.65, assuming a seasonally stronger H2.
• Key risks include ongoing export restrictions, global supply chain diversification efforts, and downstream demand volatility, while long-term plans remain aligned with China’s rare earth consolidation and value-added material strategy.

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.

• The U.S. Department of Defense has committed $550 million to MP Materials through preferred equity, a loan, and offtake guarantees to build a fully domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
• This positions MP as the U.S. government’s strategic partner for critical magnet materials, accelerating its shift from miner to fully integrated magnet producer.
• With a 10-year NdPr price floor, guaranteed offtake, and minimum EBITDA protections, MP now has robust downside protection and earnings predictability through 2035.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)  is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CITIC.
• It is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining,  located outside of China.
• It held interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.

• What you need to know: • Q2 copper production was 15.5Mlbs, vs. our 16.0Mlbs due slightly weaker grade from the fresh tailings, yet ARG maintained guidance.
• • Cash costs for the quarter came in at $1.82/lb, below our estimate of $1.93/lb, led by continued operational excellence.
• • ARG has returned $12.1M of capital to shareholders through H1/25, including $7.6M in Q2.

• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The company has announced the successful completion of the stimulation phase of the Carpentaria-5H (C-5H) testing and evaluation campaign, with the outcomes in-line with the initial specifications.

• Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.
• Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.
• Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.

• What you need to know: • NIM announced it has commenced production of at its Merritt Mill, with 3.1Kt of Talisker’s high-grade ore delivered and processing underway.
• • Nicola expects to ramp-up production to full capacity (200tpd) in Q3.
• • We look forward to Nicola receiving ore from its two other sources in the near term (Blue Lagoon Resources and the 10,000t bulk sample from Dominion Creek).

• SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
• As per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2023 sales, SICC was the second largest manufacturer globally with a market share of 14.8%.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Global upstream oil and gas development spending is expected to decline by about 1.1% to $543 billion, with reductions in all regions except the Middle East
• Major Chinese National Oil companies, US E&P operators, and Russian companies like Gazprom are all cutting their capital spending in response to lower oil prices and increased costs due to tariffs
• Despite strategic shifts towards low carbon projects, there is a significant reduction in investment in these areas, with upstream investment not seeing any benefits

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• Overall bearish market conditions in China
• Mixed trade data underscore tepid demand conditions
• Arbitrage window might open as spread between Chinese and international prices narrows 

• CSC saw peak profitability in 2021, but margins and earnings have since contracted sharply, with EBITDA/ton down to just US$15 in Q1 2025.
• It now targets US$3.1–4.7B capex over 5 years toward green steel, premium products, and ASEAN expansion, though execution risks remain high.
• Despite modest growth and high leverage, CSC trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and over US$1,500 EV/ton—well above regional peers.

• COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
• We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
• Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 

• U.S. Copper Market Gap: 1.3 Mt refined copper supply gap due to limited 0.4 Mt refining capacity against 1.7 Mt demand, despite 1.1 Mt mined ore.
• Impact on Market and Users: 50% tariff may raise prices 15–25%, adding $200–400/vehicle and 3–5% construction costs, while boosting refining investment.
• Way Forward: Expand refining capacity, streamline permitting, and ensure policy stability to process exported ore and cut import reliance by 2030.

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.

• 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d).
• The company reported a net cash position of US$241.9 mm at end-June, significantly above our expected US$210 mm.
• This reflects both the timing of capital expenditures across 2025 and continued strong operating performance.

• Rayzon Solar Ltd (0127839D IN) (RSL)  is looking to raise about US$175m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are SBI, Ambit, IIFL.
• RSL, established in 2017 as M/s Rayzon Green Energies, manufactures and sells Mono PERC, TOPCon, and bifacial solar PV modules for utility, C&I, and residential markets.
• According to the CRISIL Report, RSL is among the top 10 solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturers in India, with an installed capacity of 6.00 GW as of Mar 25.

• DNG announced that it has signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100% of the 1,500tpd permitted processing plant in Ecuador.
• The total consideration for the plant is $25M (including $9.75M for the acquisition and $15.25M in capex).
• The asset will produce 75Koz of gold, or $10M in OCF using our assumptions, representing 2.5x OCF.

• Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
• Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN). 
• Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.

• Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
• June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
• On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• During the week, Trump muscled his Big Beautiful Bill through a divided congress. With that, the bill got passed even right before 4th of July.
• The nearly-900 page bill includes a tax-cut and spending package that is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade.
• Cost-saving to reduce the government debt seems to be completely from the table. The DODGE department seems compared to this bill like a joke.

• Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at elevated levels for heavy grades, lower-than-usual levels for light grades.
• Base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels for heavy grades, and to consider adjusting production levels for light grades.
• Any such moves to maintain or adjust output would coincide with rise in regional production capacity following completion of most plant-maintenance work.

• US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.
• In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.
• US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.

• Asia’s base oils demand could weaken in coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in consumption.
• Signs of more prolonged and widespread drop in regional lube consumption from year-earlier levels would magnify impact of seasonal slowdown.
• Weaker demand in recent months cushions impact of tighter regional supply during that period.

• WTI futures rose 2.3% for the week ending 03/Jul, buoyed by Iran’s standoff with the UN and stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
• The U.S. rig count fell by eight to 539. The oil rig count fell by seven to 425, while gas rigs dropped by one to 108.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 03/Jul compared to 0.93 on 27/Jun. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI inched up by 0.6%.

• Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.
• Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.
• Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.

• Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration, as well as leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside, during a gold price market that has reached new all-time highs.
• The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2025.
• Since our last update, the Company raised more than C$40 million at premiums to fund and expand the 2025 drill program.

• With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
• Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
• The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

• After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.
• The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.
• Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.

• This follows our insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term. 
• Informal miners are disrupting Peruvian copper transport at the Las Bambas (320 kt annual production) and Constancia (110 kt) mines owned by MMG (1208 HK) and Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN). 
• Peru is the third largest copper producing country in the world (2.6 million tons or 10% of global production), and so following these disruptions is critical. 

• Following nearly a year of being in the negative, China’s steel mill margins have finally turned positive, primarily driven by a decline in coking coal prices.
• Iron ore prices have bounced 3% WoW, to 96 USD/ton, due to short-lived positive sentiment. We reiterate a short-term bounce to the 100 USD/ton level.  
• In the medium term, we anticipate iron ore prices declining to $85/ton by early next year, when Rio’s 120 million-ton Simandou project commences.

• Aurubis AG, a key player in the multimetal production sector, has reported robust performance for the first half of its fiscal year 2024-25, amidst a challenging global market environment.
• The company posted an operating EBT of EUR 229 million, nearly matching the previous year’s figures, and an EBITDA of EUR 341 million.
• A slight increase in return on capital employed to 10.2% was observed, despite an increase in capital employed due to their growth projects.

• As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to reshape the global economy, it’s easy to overlook the physical infrastructure enabling this revolution.
• While chipmakers and hyperscalers dominate headlines, Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI), one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America, is emerging as a key beneficiary of AI’s insatiable energy demands.
• The company’s recent earnings call and market positioning highlight how AI and natural gas form a powerful synergy—making KMI not just a traditional energy play, but a hidden enabler of the digital age.

• Tenaris S.A. delivered its first-quarter financial results for 2025, reflecting both challenges and opportunities.
• The company reported a quarterly sales figure of $2.9 billion, which marked a year-on-year decline of 15% but a sequential increase of 3%.
• This growth was primarily attributed to higher seasonal volumes in Canada and increased onshore sales in the U.S., despite downward pressure from declining average selling prices.

• Wacker Chemie AG’s Q1 2025 results reveal a mixed performance across different segments, reflecting the broader challenges in the market.
• The company reported sales of EUR 1.48 billion, slightly down from the previous year but higher than the preceding quarter due to seasonality.
• Group EBITDA stood at EUR 127 million, down from EUR 172 million year-over-year, mainly attributed to weak demand in solar-grade polysilicon and construction-related polymers, alongside lower utilization rates.

• Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.
• Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.
• Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• For the week ending 27/Jun, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 3.5m barrel decline). Gasoline stockpiles rose more than expected.
• The EIA reported a 55 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 48 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.2% above the five-year average but 5.6% below year-ago levels.
• BlackRock may offload its gas pipeline stake back to Aramco, while JP Morgan cut its 12-month PT on SLB and Goldman Sachs did the same for Halliburton.

• Fuchs SE reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both positive developments and challenges.
• Sales saw a year-over-year growth of 5%, driven by both internal and external factors.
• The internal growth was largely attributed to major volume increases and new contracts with prominent customers.

• Continental, Michelin, Bridgestone pivot to premium with local focus  
• MRF expands in EV, defence, and export markets amid capacity growth  
• Apollo restructures in Europe, bolstering premium bicycle

• Suitors Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra Capital are locked at A$0.062/share bids apiece for copper play New World Resources (NWC AU).
• Kinterra has tapped the Takeovers Panel after NWC failed to terminate the CAML placement “despite the relevant condition for the termination of that agreement having been satisfied“.
• Kinterra’s application has merit. Expect the Panel to make orders preventing the placement. Kinterra currently holds 19.3% of shares out and CAML 12.08%. 

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.
• There are several potential ADDs/DELs for the Index Rebal Event in September 2025 but as yet most are Medium Conviction. There are a couple of large capping flows expected. 

• Mitsui & Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.
• Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets 
• However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.

• Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global’s failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play Coronado (CRN AU)‘s shares trading around an all-time low. 
• Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.
• What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.

• Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
• July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
• Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.

• China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7, while Caixin jumped to 50.4, highlighting a divergence driven by survey scope, timing, and domestic demand strength.
• Taiwan’s 20.15% steel tariffs may slash Chinese exports, triggering domestic oversupply, weaker prices, and reduced iron ore demand amid growing regional trade uncertainty.
• Portside inventories climbed as arrivals rose, outpacing stable port demand and pointing to further stockpile growth.

• Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities.
• The week after we flagged it, the basket bounced, presumably on events in the Middle East, and this week has given back most of those returns.
• The basket has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and is bouncing along the 200-day moving average.

• OPEC maintained steady demand forecasts, while the IEA and EIA cut 2025 growth estimates. All agencies see limited near-term catalysts for a meaningful rise in global oil demand.
• OPEC, EIA, and IEA project rising oil supply, driven by non-OPEC producers and near-term OPEC+ overproduction.
• The EIA remains bullish on Henry Hub gas prices, forecasting strong demand and tightening supply through late 2025.

• Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
• Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
• Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.

• Covestro AG, a noted player in the polymers industry, recently disclosed its Q1 2025 financial results, indicating a period of stable sales but highlighted by several challenges impacting its performance.
• The company achieved a revenue of EUR 3.5 billion, nearly unchanged from the previous year, while the EBITDA stood at EUR 137 million, which is notably in the upper range of their guidance.
• However, this reflects a substantial 50% drop yearover-year due to significant costs associated with the company’s ongoing transformation initiatives.

• Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
• Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals & Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
• Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 

• Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production is scheduled to begin in 2Q25, with full ramp-up by 2027.
• Falling unit costs, rising ASPs, and front-loaded CAPEX point to improving free cash flow. Belt and Road alignment enhances access to funding and policy support.

• Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.
• Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.
• Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.

• Revenue and net profit have grown steadily over the past 5 years, but margins remain structurally thin due to its tolling-heavy model.
• Strategic shift underway to expand captive mining, value-added copper products, and ESG compliance—potentially lifting margins and returns through FY30.
• Trading at a steep discount to Zijin (~0.6x P/B vs. 2.3x), the gap reflects real structural differences; not unjustified—but offers upside optionality under copper price normalization and higher captive integration.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth
• Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes
• Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.

• Flagship Minerals Limited (ASX:FLG), formerly Pan Asia Metals Limited (ASX:PAM), is a junior explorer with two projects focusing on gold and copper respectively in Chile.
• Pantanillo is an advanced gold oxide project which has an NI 43-101 based 1.05Moz Au MRE (99.4% Measured and Indicated) which is a Qualified Foreign Estimate under JORC, whilst Rosario represents an earlier-stage copper exploration project.
• Both projects are subject to binding option agreements whereby FLG will make annual option payments and conduct work programmes to progress the projects.

• Linglong Tire’s new plants in Brazil, Kenya and Anhui in China  
• Yongsheng Rubber to take advantage of Morocco’s FTA with West  
• CNTR’s car tire facility to come up at Alexandria in Egypt  

• The mining sector posted another solid month in June with gold breaking its streak of gains but silver and copper performing well.
• This was led by increased geopolitical uncertainty, continued government spending, and potential for lower interest rates.
• Gold was down 2%, silver was up 4%, and copper was up 5% compared to the GDX up 3%, GDXJ up 4%, SILJ up 12%, and COPX up 10%.

• • The management of Chariot Group are considering splitting the company in two entities, one focusing on upstream oil and gas and the other on renewable power, the latter will also house the hydrogen and water assets.
• • Pending further details, we are placing our target price under review.

• During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
• So far, this turned out to be the right call.
• Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
• Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

• Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
• This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
• This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.

• US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.
• Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.
• Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.

• Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
• Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
• Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.

• Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
• Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
• Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.

• Boise Cascade’s recent financial disclosures portray a mixed performance amid prevailing industry and economic challenges.
• The company’s consolidated first-quarter sales reached $1.5 billion, marking a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
• Net income also witnessed a notable drop to $40.3 million or $1.06 per share, down from $104.1 million or $2.61 per share in the same quarter of 2024.

• Civitas Resources recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, reflecting a blend of strategic initiatives and challenges tied to the volatile economic environment.
• The company, led by CEO Chris Doyle, has taken deliberate steps to adjust its capital expenditures, focusing on maintaining financial flexibility amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainties.
• These adjustments include reducing capital expenditures by approximately $150 million compared to 2024, thus emphasizing a strategy of capital discipline and controlled reinvestment rates without sustaining 2024 production levels.

• Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.
• Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.
• Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.