Financials

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Three pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Retirement is a key focus for BlackRock, with half of their assets being retirement related
• Recent policy changes have expanded access to workplace retirement plans in the US
• BlackRock and the Bipartisan Policy Center have co-authored a paper with recommendations to increase access to retirement plans and improve best practices for saving and investing for retirement

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• Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower
• Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large
• Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain

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• Edelweiss has executed well over the past three years led by its pivot towards fee-based model. Its asset management businesses have grown rapidly, contributing significantly to the fee income.
• The credit businesses are still struggling in terms of growth, but they have been pivoted successfully towards the co-lending model and the next couple of years could see significant growth.
• The insurance businesses are also on track to breakeven over the next couple of years in line with the management’s prior guidance.

• The free float is estimated to gradually increase from ~15% up to 30% over six months due to the lock-up expiries of Anchor Investors and pre-IPO Shareholders.
• HDB Financial Services is forecasted to be added to Global All-World in December 2025 following the lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
• HDB Financial Services has a chance of inclusion in Global Standard in February 2026 following the lock-up expiry of pre-IPO shareholders which can increase free float up to 30%.

• Nesco reported a weak Q4FY25 led by weak performance in the exhibition segment (“BEC”). Revenue in the BEC segment was down -25% YoY and -30% QoQ.
• On the other hand, the IT Parks segment performed strong. IT Parks segment’s Q4FY25 revenue grew 2% QoQ and 15%+ YoY, led by improved occupancy and rise in rental rates.
• Typically, the Foods business is linked to the BEC business. However, in Q4FY25, despite weak BEC revenues, the Foods business did well led by the catering business.

• Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) has consistently outperformed expectations throughout FY25 and Q4FY25 was no exception. In particular, the Asset Services sub-segment has been the outlier.
• The Wealth Management and Asset Management segments continued to perform steadily providing resilience to the platform, despite cyclicality. They saw net inflows despite challenging market conditions during 2HFY25. 
• Due to market volatility, certain pockets of the investment bank and institutional equities sub-segments saw somewhat muted performance, however, Nuvama fared much better relative to its peers.

• YORKU units trade at $11, with each unit including common stock backed by a $10/share trust value and one-third of a warrant.
• Yorkville Advisors, tied to Trump-related ventures, sponsors YORKU, with a 25% stake and a $150m IPO size.
• YORKU targets telecom, media, and digital assets sectors, with management linked to Trump Media and potential speculative opportunities.

• Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$248 million outflow, led by STI banks’ S$2.73 billion outflow.
• United Overseas Bank, DBS Group Holdings, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation led share buybacks, totaling S$69.7 million in consideration.
• Q & M Dental Group CEO Ng Chin Siau increased his interest to 55.78%, acquiring 7,041,300 shares via Quan Min Holdings.

• Cantor Equity Partners III (CAEP) added to tracking portfolio, trading at $10.50/share, 5% premium to trust value.
• Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) stock rose 150% on positive phase 2b trial data for atopic dermatitis treatment Rezpeg.
• SmartPay Holdings (SMP:AX) definitive agreement to be acquired by Shift4 Payments at NZ$1.20/share, 7% spread remains.

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4.
• US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
• Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. 

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

• FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
• The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
• The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

• Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
• Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
• September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.

• Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)‘s earnings rebounded solidly by 20.4% YoY in 2H FY25, fueled by higher client accounts and assets, and better HK market turnover.
• BSS has been an underperformer against peers since May, as other brokerage companies rallied on the back of potential entry into the virtual asset dealing business. 
• Ant Financial will be able to transform BSS into a sizeable cross-asset house. The share price’s current implied earnings growth and PER valuations are conservative.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Uco Bank (UCO IN) and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS) and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
• Key Insights: The pair has not mean-reverted.  This Insight discusses the use of a Stop Loss in a statistical pair trading context and why one might be considered at this point.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative strategies, this article demonstrates some of the mechanics of statistical arbitrage and which indicators can be used to decide on exiting a position.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) and HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), OneConnect. 

• Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
• South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
• Melco (200 HK)‘s 11.9% gain on the 26th June – on serious volume – was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.

• Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), behind Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB).
• He also holds stakes in XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB).
• All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls. 

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We see three M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review (one announced later today) and then two more shortly after the rebal event. 
• Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.

• We introduce our payments scorecard in this report, in which we apply weightings to our metrics of valuation, margins, EBITDA growth estimates and valuation-to-growth to deliver rankings
• We keep PagSeguro and Nexi on the buy list, both of these are in the top three in the scorecard; we add PayPal to the buys, replacing the mega-cap Visa
• We remove our sell rating on Affirm, replacing it with Kakao Pay; Kakao Pay stock has rallied hard on stablecoin speculation, but our concern is that investors under-estimate regulatory risk

• Ajax Resources (AQSE:AJAX) has moved from the Main Market to AQSE. Ajax is pursuing a strategy as a natural resources investment Company, with a focus on Copper, Gold, Zinc, Uranium, and Lead.
• The Company completed its first acquisition on 21 May 2025, the purchase of Puna Metals S.A., holding the mining rights for 12 licences, collectively forming the Eureka Gold and Copper project in the north-west corner of the Province of Jujuy in Argentina.
• Updated 10th June: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announced that its proposed IPO onto the Main Market, which was expected to occur in late June, will be briefly delayed. 

• Updated 10th June: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announced that its proposed IPO onto the Main Market, which was expected to occur in late June, will be briefly delayed.
• A routine thematic compliance inspection commenced earlier this year in the BVI, which was disclosed in the Company’s Registration Document, requires additional time to enable finalisation ahead of the IPO.
• The inspection process is close to completion and the Company anticipates only a short delay to the IPO timetable. 

• FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
• Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
• FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

• FWD Group, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise around US$442m in its HK IPO.
• FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
• We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the IPO pricing.

• FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$442 million at HK$38.00 per share. The shares will be listed on 7 July.
• I previously discussed the IPO in FWD Group IPO: The Investment Case. 
• The IPO price implies a discount to peers’ multiples. A discount is warranted as FWD is smaller than its peers. FWD is fairly valued at the IPO price. 

• Based on HKD 38 offer price per share, FWD has a market capitalization of USD 6.1 billion, assuming the overallotment option is not exercised.
• FWD’s P/FY’24 pro forma BV represents a significant discount to peers’ trading P/FY’24 BV since it has higher-than-peers intangible assets.
• P/EV might be a fairer approach as it excludes intangible assets. On this basis, FWD valuation almost has no discount.

• Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) is looking to raise about US$184m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
• In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• UK government owned Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) for 17 years, impacting taxpayer finances
• RBS’s aggressive expansion and risky acquisitions led to vulnerabilities and exposure to toxic assets
• Government bailed out RBS with £45.5 billion, taking an 84% stake in the bank and preventing a collapse in 2008.

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• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• RLE, a London-listed REIT, is undergoing a three-year liquidation with £122m in commercial property and £7m cash.
• The portfolio’s occupancy is 82%, with a 6.92% net initial yield and a 9% reversionary yield.
• Risks include potential delays in asset sales, cash burn, and dependence on UK real estate market recovery.

• FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise around US$500m in its HK IPO.
• FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
• We looked at the company’s 2018-21 performance in our past notes. In this note, we will talk about the updates since then.

• Metaplanet has raised over $500 million via stock acquisition rights, using proceeds to repay short-term bonds and expand its Bitcoin holdings.
• Evo Fund, the main financier, has exercised 54 million shares and likely profited over $100 million through a share borrowing arrangement and market arbitrage.
• A $5 billion capital injection into its U.S. subsidiary hints at potential U.S listing (?), with an EGM scheduled for September to clarify strategic direction.

• In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals. 
• Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. 
• Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.

• Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
• The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
• Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   

• As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
• If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
• In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.

• Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.
• Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.
• Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.

• After the market close on 25 June, Affinity Equity Partners sold all of its 1.94% stake (9.742 million shares) in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) in a block deal sale.
• It was reported that the sale was made at around 59,475 won to 59,780 won, a 2.0-2.5% discount from the previous day’s closing price of 61,000 won.
• This block deal sale of 1.9% stake in Shinhan could be viewed negatively as Affinity has decided to sell the shares at current levels rather than waiting for further upside.

• Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long UCO Bank (UCO IN) and short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) based on statistical mean reversion, with UCO Bank supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• US Treasury yields declined 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, on account of softer-than-expected consumer confidence data and amid Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks on rate cuts.
• The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.83%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.30%.
• Equities rallied on easing tensions in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

LAMDA Development is the largest mall owner and operator in Greece and is currently developing The Ellinikon, Europe’s biggest urban regeneration project. LAMDA’s core mall portfolio will expand to six developments, plus two existing yacht marinas with a third marina expected to be operational in 2028–29. The cash flows from the core operations support the development of the ambitious Ellinikon project, which aims to become a value-creating ‘city within a city’ by 2037 as LAMDA builds out the two development phases. We value the existing mall and marina operations plus Phase 1 at c €12.30 per share. In addition, investors can take further comfort in the potential value of the post-Phase 1 (PP1) developments, which we have valued at €9.30 per share.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
• Affinity had sold half of its stake earlier in 2024, when the company witnessed a number of selldowns in 1H24.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
• The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
• We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
• I discussed the fundamentals in HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 2 July.
• My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.

• Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
• Track Record & Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
• Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.

• We assess whether recent returns have been extreme and put yesterday’s sharp rally in context.
• The evolution of volatility following past extreme states is examined.
• Rationale for using optionality in this stretched price environment is outlined.

• There are updates on three shares in TMT’s portfolio of globally diversified IT investments of over 50 companies The focus is primarily on AI, Big Data/Cloud, Ecommerce, Edtech, Mobility, FinTech and SaaS (Software-as-a-Service).
• There is a revaluation uplift of 138% ($0.7m) in the fair value of TMT’s holding in its portfolio company Scale, compared to the value as at FY 31 December 2024.
• Scale is a humanity-first GenAI company https://scale.com.

• Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.
• Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.
• The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) and Region (RGN AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Solana is a high-performance blockchain platform that is designed to host decentralized, scalable applications.
• It can process thousands of transactions per second, significantly more than many other blockchains, including Bitcoin or Ethereum (though Ethereum 2.0 aims to improve its scalability).
• This high throughput makes it suitable for applications that require rapid processing, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces, and gaming.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). 
• The proposed IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs25 billion (US$388 million) and a secondary raise of  Rs100 billion (US$1.2 billion) by the parent. 
• The fundamentals are average at best, as HDB does not outperform its NBFC peers on key performance indicators. 

• Four SPACs, CCCM, PCAPU, MBAV, and TACO, are highlighted for their potential asymmetric trade opportunities in the crypto sector.
• Sage Therapeutics announced a sale to Supernus Pharmaceuticals, with shareholders receiving $8.50/share in cash and a CVR.
• Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette progresses with FIRB approval discussions, despite no strict obligation for Cosette to pursue it.

• For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they had net income of $64.2 million, compared to $32.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
• The company is coming at an attractive valuation but our sources say traditional IPO investors “may” be staying on the sidelines for this deal. 
• This company is private equity backed by J.C. Flowers & Co and they will own 68.9% of the voting power following this IPO.

• Turning losses around in 2024 relied on capital market recovery and adjustment of accounting standards. If investment returns fluctuate or premium growth slows down, profits may again come under pressure.
• The excessive goodwill of insurance companies is essentially “overdrawing the current valuation with future expectations”.Whether goodwill can be transformed into actual synergy effects is the key to determining long-term value. 
• The market usually gives lower valuation to companies with high goodwill. FWD relies on debt to provide funding for working capital/acquisition financing. Valuation of FWD should be lower than peers.

• HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
• We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

• Projections in the podcast do not reflect actual performance achieved by guests
• Guest Sean Barrett provides insight on EQT and alternative asset investing
• EQT is a thematic private markets investment manager based in Stockholm with global operations

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• Updated 10th June: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announced that its proposed IPO onto the Main Market, which was expected to occur in late June, will be briefly delayed.
• A routine thematic compliance inspection commenced earlier this year in the BVI, which was disclosed in the Company’s Registration Document, requires additional time to enable finalisation ahead of the IPO.
• The inspection process is close to completion and the Company anticipates only a short delay to the IPO timetable. 

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
• Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Share prices of China Life and Prudential plc have been up by 33% and 40% – 50% YTD, respectively.
• China Life’s agency restructuring is bearing fruit, as evidenced by increasing agency productivity, and is expected to continue driving new business growth and margin expansion.
• Our previous thesis for Prudential plc remains largely intact. Albeit the strong share price performance YTD, valuation upside remains as its new business multiple continues to re-rate.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$15+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying still positive but still below US$500mm/day.
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. PROPERTIES too. Among top sells, INFO TECH again. 10 weeks in a row negative. Tencent bigly sold.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two 
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is a pan-Asia insurer that has filed its PHIP to raise around US$500 million. 
• FWD initially aimed for an NYSE IPO in 2021 to raise US$2-3 billion at a US$13-15 billion valuation. An HKEx listing in 2022 was shelved due to market conditions. 
• This note outlines the investment case. My analysis suggests that the fundamentals are mixed as FWD is rapidly growing its new business, but at the expense of its margin. 

• The first quarter of 2025 has presented a robust performance for StoneCo. The company’s financial health is highlighted by a strong year-over-year gross profit growth of 19%, outpacing the 14% guidance for annual gross profit growth.
• This notable growth is attributed mainly to effective repricing execution and a reduction in average funding spreads, bolstered by a significant 36% increase in adjusted EPS.
• StoneCo has emphasized a disciplined execution strategy, which includes repricing initiatives in response to the evolving yield curve.