Financials

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

• Neinor’s offer is strategically sound but priced below NAV, raising legal and minority resistance risks.
• Castlelake’s 79% commitment secures majority control, but a squeeze-out or delisting still requires a higher bid.
• A revised offer near €26.50 would align interests and improve execution certainty at minimal cost to Neinor.

• Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.
• A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.
• Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.

• As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
• Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY. 
• NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.

• 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it has confirmed its intention to IPO onto the Main Market.
• The Company developed and operates a proprietary online and mobile CFD trading platform, allowing primarily retail clients to trade CFDs across 870+ financial instruments, including currencies, commodities, indices, stocks, cryptocurrencies and exchange traded funds.
• For the year ended 31 December 2024, trading income was $50.1m, adjusted EBITDA of $9.7m and adjusted profit before tax of $7.6m. 

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• AP Liberty (Apollo) is looking to raise US$170m from selling out its stake in Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) .
• This selldown comes on the heels of a previous selldown in September 2024 ; Apollo is conducting a clean-up sale now.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn’t differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.
• Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.
• We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD’s valuation is really attractive. It’s also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.

• The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising > 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung’s won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.
• Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 
• Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.

• According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with good diversification from long-only accounts.
• Looking at the financial metrics of this company, they wrote premiums of $1.33b in 2024 which was a 52.5% increase from 2023. 
• The success of the insurance sector as a whole including the strong performance of Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC US)  last week will only further enhance the optics of this IPO.

• Indutrade AB’s recent quarterly earnings present a nuanced picture of its current operational and financial health.
• The company reported a 5% organic growth in order intake amidst an uncertain market environment.
• This was primarily driven by strong demand in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, the broader process industry, and energy.

Partners Group Private Equity Ltd’s (PEY’s) NAV total return (TR) improved after a weaker period to 11.4% in FY24 in euro terms. It was bolstered by the successful exit of SRS Distribution (sold to Home Depot), three IPOs and solid business traction of holdings such as International Schools Partnerships (ISP) and DiversiTech. PEY’s NAV fell by 6.5% in the first four months of 2025, mostly due to fx and the de-rating of listed holdings (KinderCare Learning Companies in particular). PEY’s board made good progress in its agenda to enhance shareholder value. In FY24, it rolled out a well-structured capital allocation framework, which, on top of regular dividends, allows it to use part of PEY’s free cash flow for buybacks. The board also renegotiated PEY’s fee structure with a favourable change to the base for calculating its management and performance fee. New members joined the board and PEY scaled up its engagement with shareholders.

• A weekly roundup of key option and price metrics for Hong Kong single stocks.
• Gains were broad-based again, though participation was slightly lower than the prior week.
• We discuss the increase in Put open interest which has been trending higher over the past month.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Tata Motors
• US Treasury yields rose 3-5 bps across the curve on Friday, as the surge in oil prices amid the Iran-Israel conflict stoked renewed inflation concerns. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 4 bps to 4.40%.
• Equities retreated, with tech- and travel-related stocks declining, while energy producers and defence stocks rose. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,977, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3% to 19,407.

• Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on HKEX (388 HK), executed over the period from 9 to 13 June.
• Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, for example a self-financing Diagonal Put Spread using weekly options, or a Diagonal Call Spread generating 3.9% upfront yield.
• Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

• WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card. 
• Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
• Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card. 

• This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1) 
• Both Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) appear overbought, but as discussed in a recent insight, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.
• S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed here (ASX200) and here (KOSPI200).

• BAF Viet Nam Agriculture JSC (BAF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
• Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN) stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.

• FnGuide has been able to capitalize on its excellent brand name in the financial industry (especially for research used in equity trading) to profitably expand into the index development business.
• Although the index business accounted for 25% of its sales in 2024, it has been the fastest growing business in the past six years. 
• Valuations are reasonable and it is trading at 27% below four year historical EV/EBITDA basis. We like FnGuide as a long-term investment story. 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Two pair trade opportunities in the Indian financial sector persist, with price ratios exceeding two standard deviations from their historical means.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Hann Holdings, Inc. is looking to raise about US$232mn in its upcoming Philippines IPO. The deal will be run by BDO, CLSA, China Bank, PNB Cap, and Asia United Bank.
• It operates the leading integrated gaming, hospitality, and luxury resort business in Clark, Philippines, with the highest market share (47.3%) in Clark’s land-based casino market.
• It owns and operates two of the only three five-star hotels in Central Luzon: Clark Marriott Hotel and Swissôtel Clark Philippines.

• Significant Growth & Untapped Potential: While global crypto ETF AUM has reached $168.3B, this represents a small fraction of the $14.8T global ETF market and the $128T total global AUM, indicating a vast addressable market and substantial room for future expansion. We project the global crypto ETF AUM to potentially exceed $1T in five years, over 6x the current level.
• US Dominance in AUM, Europe in Variety: The US leads globally with $144.3B in crypto ETF AUM (85.7% market share), largely driven by the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Europe, while smaller in AUM ($15.3B), offers a wider array of altcoin ETFs. Canada and Hong Kong have also emerged as important regional hubs.

• Quantitative Spotlight on US Market Dynamics: Daily net flows into spot ETFs show a positive but modest correlation with Bitcoin price changes (0.34) and a very weak correlation for Ethereum (0.13). Coupled with low R-squared values, this indicates that spot ETF flows, while impacting underlying crypto price, are just one of many factors

• Jefferson Cap is offering 10.0mm shares at $15.00-$17.00 equating to a market cap of $972m-$1.1b and will debut on June 26th.
• The company is backed by J.C. Flowers and the majority of this IPO, 9.375mm shares, is secondary with J.C. Flowers offering 7.76mm shares and Canaccede offering 1.6mm.
• Debt buying companies have a vastly different profile than a Chime, CoreWeave or Voyager or Circle which has major, scalable tailwinds.

• Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), executed over the period from 6 to 12 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
• Highlights: Many strategies creatively utilize weekly expiries, sometimes employing options with as little as one or two days to maturity to generate upfront yield or financing.
• Why read: Detailed examples and break-down of complex option strategies provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

• US treasuries climbed yesterday, on the back of soft PPI data as well as a solid auction of 30Y notes.
• The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 4 bps to 3.91%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 6 bps at 4.36%.
• Equities rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

• Sui commands an ~US$11 bn market cap (FDV US$34 bn) barely two years after launch, yet real‑world usage is still embryonic. 
• Claimed throughput of 297 k TPS contrasts with currently observed ~48 TPS (peak 335). 
• A restrictive validator set, modest staking yields, looming token unlocks, and limited developer traction undermine the decentralisation and growth narrative.

• Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM) priced a full-size deal of 32.0mm shares at $27.00 ($1 Above the $24-$26 range) and opened at $43.00 for a gain of 59.2% at first trade.
• The debut is a major win for IPO investors but a disappointment for aftermarket traders as the stock closed nearly six points below the open.
• Chime’s order book finished north of 20-times oversubscribed with the top ten accounts taking 60% of the deal and the top 20 being allocated 85% of the transaction. 

Molten Ventures confirmed the key highlights from its FY25 trading statement published in April, including a positive uptick in portfolio valuations and, in turn, a 4% NAV per share total return in H225 (1.4% in FY25 to end-March 2025), strong cash realisations of c £135m in FY25 (ahead of the original guidance of £100m) and a robust cash balance of £89m at end-March 2025. Molten has collected a further £30m in proceeds so far in FY26 from the exits of Lyst and Freetrade. The company earmarked £30m of its FY25 proceeds for share buybacks amid a continued wide discount to NAV (c 53% at present), of which £24m has been executed to date.

• PRS trades near offer price; market expects completion, but IRR is low unless pullback entry.
• Revised offer or interloper could unlock material upside versus deep NAV discount.
• Scheme route likely adds time, but brings execution certainty—watch for end-June updates.

• Safestore (LSE: SAFE) is a UK-based leading self-storage company with 209 stores across the UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Spain.

Target Healthcare REIT operates in a structurally supported market with a growing elderly population and the need to improve the existing estate, driving demand for modern, high-quality residential facilities. This demographic-backed demand underpins the company’s core proposition of generating long-term, sustainable, income-driven returns. Its focus on asset quality is central to this and strongly enhances the social impact that the company generates. With 100% of the homes EPC rated A or B, they are compliant with minimum energy efficiency standards anticipated to apply from 2030, while effectively all rents are inflation-linked (typically capped and collared between 2% and 4% pa) with a weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT) of 25.8 years. High-quality assets and inflation protection provide good income visibility and resilience.

• There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
• A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
• There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

• We are turning bearish on Hang Lung Properties.   Given China’s economic slowdown, we think luxury spending in China will take longer than expected
• In addition, the property slowdown and housing prices decline will lead to a negative wealth effect, which will further impact luxury consumption
• If RMB is to strengthen, more Chinese will travel to spend overseas.  HLP P/B valuation is almost historical low, but can stay cheap as a “value trap”

• S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
• Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
• We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.

• Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC) priced a full-size deal of 6.67mm shares at $17.00 ($1 above the range) and opened at $23.65 for a gain of 39.1% at first trade.
• The underwriters felt good about this IPO enough that they elected to accelerate the timing of this deal by a single day.
• This insurance company was a pure-play E&S with higher regards given to this niche area by sector-dedicated investors.

• US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.
• The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.
• Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.

• Seazen Group (formerly known as Future Land) is among the most established property developers in China’s Yangtze River Delta region, targeting first-time home buyers and upgraders.
• The company has broad exposure in many Chinese cities, particularly lower-tier ones.
• In addition, it has a portfolio of more than 150 investment properties, including the Wuyue-branded shopping malls.

• The FTC uses acquisition cost, not market value, so Samsung C&T’s existing 5.05% Samsung Elec stake is booked at KRW 400B
• Samsung Life only needs to sell ~5.5% of Samsung Elec, not the full 8.51%, leaving Samsung C&T with a ~KRW 10T buffer before hitting the 50% holdco threshold.
• The holdco risk is overblown—unlikely without rule changes. The Bio spin-off looks like prep for Samsung C&T to buy Samsung Elec stake, driving re-rating upside for C&T and Life.

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
• The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It’s modestly overbought and could go higher.
• News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.

• CPKF’s first quarter net earnings, excluding a one-time charge from repositioning its investment securities portfolio of $8.0 million aftertax, or $1.69 per diluted share, increased $0.8 million, or 29%, to $3.55 million year over year, while 2025’s first quarter diluted EPS rose $0.17, or 29%, to $0.75.
• Including this one-time charge, CPKF reported a net loss of $4.45 million, or a diluted loss per share of $0.94.
• This was better than our estimate, which had called for flat net earnings (off by $0.8 million), as well as flat diluted EPS (off by $0.17).We are increasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2025 by $0.20 from $2.50 to $2.70, representing a 12% gain over 2024’s actual EPS of $2.42.

• There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
• The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
• The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
• Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
• While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.

• As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
• The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
• This insight evaluates possible scenarios for the possible 2-4 weeks, beyond the June 20 date when the index review will become effective.

• COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk.  Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader
• It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR.  This is very significant 
• Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited.  We think it is the perfect beta play for China

• The hold-up is based upon how Chime should be valued — either like a fintech darling or just another financial services company.
• The company’s gross profit tells a solid growth story as Chime ramps into the IPO with a healthy 33% gross profit clip based on Q1 2025 financials vs Q1 2024. 
• According to our sources, the Chime order book is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.

• Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE US) will be the fourth insurance company to go public in the first half of 2025.
• The company is offering 20 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a $1.9b-$2.1b  market cap.
• We anticipate there to be solid interest in this IPO based upon sector tailwinds. The company considers itself an “insurtech” which could create a different investor profile for this deal.

• Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC US) has elected to push pricing ahead by one-day due to the strength of the order book.
• According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with quality conversions from 1-on-1 meetings.
• This IPO is being well-received. Insurance IPOs are not the type of deal that is “flashy” out of the gates but is one that is geared toward buy-and-hold investors.

• We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
• Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
• Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.

• Treasury yields climbed yesterday, led by the front and belly tenors, in line with similar price action in Europe after ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank could pause rate cuts in the summer.
• The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.92% and the yield on the 10Y UST up 4 bps at 4.39%.
• US equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday in a call that lasted c. 1.5 hours. 

• Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
• Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
• We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

• New portfolio ideas include Lutnick’s SPACs CEPO/CEPT with potential multibagger upside and MYX:AX’s merger arb with Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
• Guest pitches highlight potential takeover of Webjet Group, Naturgy’s odd-lot tender offer, and Assura’s bidding war interest.
• Updates cover LWAY’s board overhaul, LQDA’s patent lawsuit denial, RTACU’s unit separation, NZM’s strategic review, OCFT’s document delay, and PAC’s short report on ABL.

• Chime Financial (CHYM US) meets public voting rights eligibility only after the 6-month lock-up expiry, leading to its delayed inclusion in Global-F SmallCap and R1000 in 2026.
• Chime Financial (CHYM US) will be excluded from Global-M for the next 12 months due to the lock-up on undisclosed shareholders, which keeps the free float below the 15% threshold.
• Chime Financial (CHYM US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.