Category

Financials

Daily Brief Financials: Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: Strong Corporate Value Up Plan


Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: Strong Corporate Value Up Plan

By Douglas Kim

  • On 31 January, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) announced a comprehensive corporate value up plan.
  • The three major areas of focus include K-ICS ratio (220%), ROE targets of 11-13%, and total shareholder returns to 50% by 2028. 
  • The company plans to reduce the treasury shares as a percentage of total outstanding shares from 15.9% to 5% by 2028 (10.9% of total outstanding shares over over four years).

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Daily Brief Financials: Ascot Corp, Banco De Sabadell SA, NSE Nifty Bank Index, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, S&P/ASX 200, ZKsync, Resona Holdings, Orient Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260
  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal
  • Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid
  • EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (3 February 2025)
  • EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions
  • EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy –  Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging
  • ZKsync & The Elastic Network Endgame
  • Resona Holdings (8308 JP) – Positive 3QFY24 Results
  • Orient Corp (8585 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update


Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260

By Travis Lundy

  • Ping An Insurance bought into a small Tokyo-based condo developer in 2017 at ¥255/share. In 2020, it reinvested on the dip with SBI at ¥155/share.
  • Ping An and SBI started with zero shares. By 2020 they had 80+% of shares. Now they are selling out to Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)
  • This is a done deal at a slight premium to book value. Daito Trust buys Real Estate Available for Sale and assumes debt. That’s it. Easy peasy done deal. 

Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP) announced a tender offer from Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) at JPY260 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close.
  • Ascot currently does not meet the 25% tradeable share ratio criterion. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges but below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • This is a done deal, as irrevocables represent an 82.78% ownership ratio, well above the minimum acceptance condition (67.86% ownership ratio).  

Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell plans a €500 million share buyback to maintain stock value, reducing the attractiveness of BBVA’s exchange offer and increasing shareholder resistance to the takeover.
  • Regulatory scrutiny intensifies as BBVA-Sabadell would control 39.63% of Catalonian banking credit, raising competition concerns, particularly in SME lending and payment services.
  • The market expects BBVA to raise its offer by 10-20%, but BBVA’s CEO insists there is “no room” for improvement, making shareholder approval uncertain.

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • NSE Nifty Bank Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
  • Putting implied volatility into context with the NSE Nifty Bank Index 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.
  • This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (3 February 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 February.
  • The top 10 stock picks include Orion Holdings, OCI Holdings, Hana Tour Service, Hyundai Motor, KT Corp, Samsung F&M Insurance, Korean Air, Hankook T&T, Young Poong, and NICE Info Service.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 17 to 31 January are up on average 2.6%, outperforming KOSPI which is down 0.1% in the same period. 

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Global option markets present a diverse picture, offering a broad opportunity set.
  • Several markets make for good hedging-candidates after a strong January and amid cheap options.
  • Although several Indian indices show high implied volatility, contextual analysis indicates volatility may be fairly priced relative to their bear trends.

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy –  Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Today, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) reached a new all-time high while implied volatility is near record low levels. The combination makes for a good opportunity to hedge.
  • Volatility assessment trough conventional volatility metrics and one new chart not seen anywhere else.
  • An actionable example of a put option hedge is presented, striking a balance between protection and cost.

ZKsync & The Elastic Network Endgame

By Delphi Digital

  • This consulting report explores ZKsync’s transformation from a Layer 2 scaling solution into the Elastic Network, a groundbreaking ecosystem of interoperable ZK Chains positioned to revolutionize institutional blockchain adoption.
  • With Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $30B and major players like BlackRock embracing blockchain technology, 2024 has marked unprecedented institutional interest in crypto.
  • However, widespread adoption faces two key challenges: blockchain fragmentation and the inability of public networks to meet institutional requirements for privacy and compliance.

Resona Holdings (8308 JP) – Positive 3QFY24 Results

By Victor Galliano

  • Resona’s 3QFY24 results confirm that it is well geared to higher interest rates in Japan, with its high floating rate loan exposure, low LDR and high BoJ cash balance
  • In addition, management is executing effectively to deliver revenue growth well ahead of opex growth, and NPL trends continue to improve, resulting in sharply lower cost of risk
  • Resona’s equity holdings value to market cap ratio is 36%, the highest of the six biggest Japanese banks by market cap; management is actively divesting holdings to free up capital

Orient Corp (8585 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue rose by JPY13.9bn (+8.2% YoY) to JPY182.5bn, driven by core business growth and new subsidiaries.
  • Operating expenses increased JPY15.4bn (+9.7% YoY) to JPY174.0bn, mainly due to higher SG&A and financing expenses.
  • Recurring profit decreased JPY1.6bn (-15.8% YoY) to JPY8.5bn, with net income impacted by income tax adjustments.

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Daily Brief Financials: Mediobanca SpA, Veritas Finance Ltd, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Financial Products Group Co, M&A Capital Partners, NIFTY Index, Strike, ABRDN European Logistics Income and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications
  • Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?
  • Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
  • M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
  • EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems
  • Strike (6196 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
  • Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales


BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Hostile Takeover Attempt: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share bid for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium, but Mediobanca rejected it, citing governance conflicts and strategic misalignment.
  • Shareholder and Dilution Risks: BMPS shareholders face 39.3% dilution, while Delfin and Caltagirone’s post-merger 24% stake raises governance concerns, potentially sidelining smaller investors.
  • The deal faces integration risks, and Mediobanca’s shareholder resistance, with BMPS’s falling stock price erasing the initial premium, making success increasingly uncertain.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise around US$323m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI, HDFC, Jefferies, Kotak and Nuvama.
  • Veritas Finance Limited (VFL) is a retail focused non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India primarily providing loans to micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and self-employed individuals.
  • As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the fastest-growing NBFC in terms of AUM growth during FY22-24, growing at a CAGR of 61.76%.

What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Airtel-Bajaj Finance partnership is a game-changer in the digital financial services sector in India. It combines the strengths of both companies to create a powerful platform.
  • By leveraging Airtel’s extensive distribution network and Bajaj Finance’s financial expertise, this collaboration has the potential to disrupt the market and challenge established players.
  • It follows the successful playbook of other global partnerships and demonstrates how digital platforms and financial institutions can work together to enhance financial accessibility

Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY09/25, revenues increased by 14.6% YoY, while operating and recurring profits decreased by 7.7% and 7.4% respectively.
  • The Leasing Fund Business reported a 26.5% YoY revenue decline, with a segment profit margin of 87.7%, down 1.2pp YoY.
  • The International Real Estate Fund Business achieved a 356.6% YoY revenue increase, with a gross profit margin of 90.6%, up 8.5pp YoY.

M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue in Q1 FY09/25 reached JPY7.3bn, a 131.8% YoY increase, driven by higher average fees per deal.
  • Operating profit and recurring profit both increased by 465.1% YoY to JPY3.3bn, with net income rising 465.7% YoY.
  • The company revised its dividend policy, increasing the payout ratio target to 30%, raising FY09/25 dividends to JPY51.84.

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • NIFTY Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
  • Putting implied volatility into context with NIFTY Index market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.
  • This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.

Strike (6196 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue was JPY3.7bn (-0.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY531mn (-60.5% YoY) and recurring profit at JPY523mn (-61.1% YoY).
  • Strike closed 105 M&A deals (-0.9% YoY), with 288 new contracts (+25.2% YoY) and 1,083 contract backlogs.
  • Cost of revenue increased 40.5% YoY to JPY1.8bn, while SG&A expenses rose 27.2% YoY to JPY1.3bn.

Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • ASLI is undergoing a managed wind-down with a 23% upside to NAV estimates, selling properties above NAV.
  • Recent sales include three assets for €45m, with further large assets in due diligence, supporting NAV estimates.
  • Risks include potential higher disposal costs and management incentives, but a margin of safety exists with current pricing.

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Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Jafco Co Ltd, Krung Thai Bank Pub, Matsui Securities, Entrust Inc, Global Indemnity Group LLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Jafco- Continues to Perform
  • Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages
  • Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • GBLI: Global Indemnity Group reorganizes its business under a new project called Project Manifest. These moves will create a more efficient and lateral structure.


SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. 
  • Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 73.9% YoY to JPY25.4bn, with operating profit rising 149.6% YoY to JPY11.2bn.
  • Capital gains reached JPY10.9bn, with JPY7.6bn from IPO-related share sales and JPY3.4bn from unlisted shares.
  • Total investment executed in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 was JPY30.6bn, with JPY14.5bn for domestic VC investments.

Jafco- Continues to Perform

By Rikki Malik

  • The company has had good 2024 absolute and relative to Topix performance.
  • Will Jafco continue this winning streak into 2025 and beyond?
  • Results for the quarter ending December 2024 are encouraging with exit multiples increasing

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
  • Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
  • Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Net operating revenue was JPY9.0bn, with a YoY increase of 4.5% and a QoQ decrease of 9.8%.
  • SG&A expenses rose to JPY5.4bn, up 6.8% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, with personnel expenses at JPY999mn.
  • Net trading profit reached JPY1.1bn, up 3.6% YoY and down 8.3% QoQ, primarily from FX transactions.

Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 17.9% YoY to JPY7.8bn, driven by growth in rent guarantee services; operating profit rose 11.0% YoY.
  • Total contracts in force reached 475,000 (+4.0% YoY), with Guarantee business contracts increasing 20.7% YoY to 349,000.
  • Solution business revenue declined 14.5% YoY as customers switched to guarantee contracts, reducing contracts in force by 24.7% YoY.

GBLI: Global Indemnity Group reorganizes its business under a new project called Project Manifest. These moves will create a more efficient and lateral structure.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
  • GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
  • The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

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Daily Brief Financials: NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation, SLB Development, Bund Center Investment, Hang Seng Index, Mizuho Leasing, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
  • NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer
  • SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.
  • Bund Center Investment (BTE SP): A Dominant Real Estate Play on the Bund
  • EQD | Tactically Overbought HSI May Start Pulling Back After Lunar New Year
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Jan-2025): SC Capital buys Fukuoka Hilton from Mizuho for $420M
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected
  • SES AI Corp: Secures Commercial Deal for Li-Metal and Li- Ion Batteries for Drones with Data Blanket


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

By Travis Lundy

  • Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)
  • 3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
  • “Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • 3D has announced an unsolicited partial tender offer for NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP) at JPY131,890 per unit, a 10.0% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The minimum number of units to be purchased is 115,279 (7.80% ownership ratio), and the maximum number of units to be purchased is 189,128 (12.80% ownership ratio).
  • The modest premium and an implied P/NAV <1x suggest a lightish offer. 3D will have to rethink terms as shares are trading through terms. 

SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

By David Blennerhassett


Bund Center Investment (BTE SP): A Dominant Real Estate Play on the Bund

By Kilde

  • Bund Center Investment (BCI) is a diversified investment vehicle with two commercial real estate assets: the landmark Westin Bund Center Hotel, and its premium office space, Bund Center Office Tower in Shanghai.
  • BCI operates under two business segments: Hotel Operations and Property Leasing.
  • Despite short-term hurdles, long-term economic growth in China provides a supportive backdrop.

EQD | Tactically Overbought HSI May Start Pulling Back After Lunar New Year

By Nico Rosti

  • In our previous, Jan 11th. insight, we said the HSI INDEX could find support between 18.8K and 17.5K, and rally, and so it did (the bottom was at 18671).
  • Since there the index has been rallying for 3 weeks, >8% returns so far.
  • This insight is focused on tactical strategy: the Hang Seng Index may be readying for a new pullback, starting next week, so we are going to look at resistance levels.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Jan-2025): SC Capital buys Fukuoka Hilton from Mizuho for $420M

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • SC Capital purchased the Fukuoka Hilton in Japan from Mizuho Leasing for $420M in a significant Hotel REIT transaction.
  • GIC has divested its stake in a London office project to Modon, a move that indicates strategic restructuring for the company.
  • Despite a rise in revenue, CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s 2H 2024 payout decreased by 7%, reflecting potential challenges in the market.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected

By Clarence Chu

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. 
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.

SES AI Corp: Secures Commercial Deal for Li-Metal and Li- Ion Batteries for Drones with Data Blanket

By Water Tower Research

  • SES AI inks its first commercial deal for its next- generation Li-Metal and Li-ion batteries with AI drone startup Data Blanket.
  • This is a significant event in SES AI’s history. With this deal, the company has demonstrated that its next-generation batteries, designed using its AI for Science battery materials discovery capabilities, can win commercial deals (and not just pilot projects or development projects) in the drone space.
  • Deal specifics are sparse, but we know that revenue recognition began in December and that the current deal should continue to generate revenue through mid-2025.

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Daily Brief Financials: SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Hang Seng Index, Macrotech Developers, EURO/US DOLLAR, Nikkei 225, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, American International Group, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index
  • IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan
  • EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?
  • Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang
  • Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 20-24): Seasonals Provide Tailwind
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Stalled Rally, Flat Implied Vol
  • American Airlines’ Record-Breaking Revenue Falls Flat: What’s Behind the Stock Slump?
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA


Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRX is going all-in, using data transparency to clean up the Value-Up Index, rebuild trust, and keep it in the spotlight.
  • This sharpens predictability for June’s rebalancing, enhances market transparency, and attracts foreign investors to GICS-based indices like the KOSPI 200.
  • This could transform index dynamics, boosting inflows, liquidity, and global interest, creating a potential alpha opportunity.

IFC’s US$I25 Million Boost To Tire Manufacturing In India, Pakistan

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Greenfield tire production facility to come up in Sindh, Pakistan
  • JK Tyre to get US$100 million sustainability loan for expansion
  • Sustainability-linked loan a first in India’s tire industry

EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?

By John Ley

  • All three markets exhibited larger average returns in the 5 days leading up to Lunar New Years compared to out-of-sample data.
  • The pattern for the period after Lunar New Year does not show the same characteristics as prior to Lunar New Year.
  • The strongest returns were seen in FXI with average returns 10X out-of-sample average returns.

Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Lodha brothers, Abhishek and Abhinandan, are locked in a legal battle over the use of the “Lodha” brand, despite a 2017 family settlement agreement.
  • Macrotech Developer is seeking a perpetual injunction against HoABL to cease the use of the “Lodha” brand in any form and is demanding INR5,000 crore in damages. 
  • The Bombay High Court on January 21 said that it would hear on January 27 the application filed by Abhishek Lodha-promoted Macrotech Developers Ltd 

Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?

By At Any Rate

  • Basis reflects the US dollar scarcity premium, with a more negative basis indicating greater scarcity
  • Positive Euro US dollar basis is primarily driven by short-term tactical cross-border flows, not direct funding dynamics
  • Evolution of relative balance sheet dynamics between the Fed and ECB will be a dominant driver of the Euro US dollar basis going forward

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist

By John Ley

  • Nikkei back at the top of the price range rising 3.85%. Gains may be more limited from here without an assist from the currency.
  • Implied vols softened on the week from a combination of factors includes low realized volatility on the week.
  • Active trade in Put and Call strikes at the edge of the recent trading range.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 20-24): Seasonals Provide Tailwind

By John Ley

  • The lead up to Lunar New Year typically sees stronger than normal returns and last week was no exception with the strong rally continuing for both markets.
  • Price action was more volatile than has been seen lately pushing up short term historic volatility measures with 1M implieds +- 1point.
  • June 6000 Puts in HSCEI seeing continued trading interest at the June 27 expiry.

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Stalled Rally, Flat Implied Vol

By John Ley

  • Kospi200 has stalled out gaining only 50bps on the week after taking the gain on the month to 5.9%.
  • Implied vols have flat-lined with spot grinding out gains and historic vols bracketing implied.
  • We highlight the positive seasonality heading into Lunar New Year.

American Airlines’ Record-Breaking Revenue Falls Flat: What’s Behind the Stock Slump?

By Baptista Research

  • American Airlines has showcased strong performance metrics in recent quarters but is currently grappling with investor concerns over its first-quarter guidance.
  • For Q4 2024, the airline delivered record-breaking revenue of $13.7 billion, contributing to an annual revenue milestone of $54.2 billion.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $0.84, exceeding expectations of $0.66.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia came good in 4Q2024 with a strong finish to the year due to higher loan growth from corporates and consumers, alongside higher CASA growth cementing higher NIMs
  • The bank also saw improving asset quality, with falling loans-at-risk, and although there was an uptick in provisions in 4Q due to Sritex, the outlook for credit costs looks stable.
  • Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book. Valuations remain attractive. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Guotai Junan Securities , Areit (AyalaLand REIT), SLB Development, IREDA, Bank Central Asia, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher
  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.


Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas


PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas


SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

By Sankalp Singh

  • Monthly Options contracts experiencing large IV markups on account of India Budget event. IVs have traded up to 18.0%. YTD vol increase marks a significant shift in the Vol-regime.
  • Gamma offered & Vega bid – Weekly Options contracts relatively out-of-favour while Monthly & Quarterly contracts are being marked up.
  • Skew & Smile characteristics have compressed slightly. Vol term-structure continues to trade with “inverted-V” shape. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Samsung Life Insurance, Mediobanca SpA, Resona Holdings, Goldman Sachs Group, Geo Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Seoul Guarantee IPO: Price Cut, Dividend Focus, But Overhang and Weak Earnings May Hurt
  • Samsung Life Insurance: Implications of Classifying Samsung Electronics as a Long-Term Holding
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview (Significantly Lower IPO Price Range)
  • Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Revisiting Interest Rate Sensitivities
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.
  • Geo Group Inc (GEO) – Friday, Oct 25, 2024


Seoul Guarantee IPO: Price Cut, Dividend Focus, But Overhang and Weak Earnings May Hurt

By Sanghyun Park

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance is sticking to the same playbook, focusing on boosting dividend appeal, with a better price and the 100% secondary sell-down and KDIC stake dump still in place.
  • There’s doubt about market interest, as the performance drop from 2023 to 2024 raises concerns over meeting the 200B KRW minimum dividend promise.
  • Seoul Guarantee is Korea’s only pure-play surety insurer, tied to the domestic economy. The IPO lacks a growth plan to reduce this reliance, which would’ve been a key win.

Samsung Life Insurance: Implications of Classifying Samsung Electronics as a Long-Term Holding

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) is considering on a special measure of classifying its stake in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) as a long-term holding stock of up to 10 years.
  • If Samsung Life Insurance’s stake in Samsung Electronics is classified as a long-term holding, Samsung Life Insurance cannot sell Samsung Electronics stocks for at least 5 years.
  • There is an increasing probability that if Samsung Life Insurance classifies its stake in Samsung Electronics as a long-term holding, the current ownership stake structure involving Samsung Group remains intact.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview (Significantly Lower IPO Price Range)

By Douglas Kim

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp (SGIC) is trying for another attempt at an IPO at much lower IPO price range. The IPO price range is from 26,000 won to 31,800 won.
  • At the high end of the IPO price range, the IPO offering size is 222 billion won. The IPO price range has been lowered by 34% to 39%. 
  • Despite the company’s consistent record of generating positive operating profit, its lack of sales growth and declining operating margins in 2024 remain key concerns.

Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Proposed Deal Details: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share offer for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium per share. Post-merger, BMPS shareholders would own 40% of the combined entity.
  • Strategic Rationale: The merger aims to create a diversified financial powerhouse, achieving €700M in annual synergies and accelerating BMPS’s €2.9B deferred tax asset utilization for shareholder value creation.
  • Challenges and Risks: Insufficient premium, integration complexities, and shareholder dilution concerns cast doubt on deal success, alongside Mediobanca’s superior growth prospects and market positioning.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Revisiting Interest Rate Sensitivities

By Victor Galliano

  • BoJ raised rates to 0.5% at its January policy meeting and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at more rate hikes; BoJ’s new Outlook Report forecasts higher core inflation in 2025
  • We reiterate our core recommendations Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs, their high levels of cash at the BoJ and their modest valuation
  • We also keep our buys on Concordia and Shizuoka, for their leverage to higher interest rates and LDRs below 90%, along with their attractive valuations highlighted by low PEGs

Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Goldman Sachs’ GCI enters partnership with Asia Pacific Land in Japan for data center venture, expanding its reach in Asia.
  • CPPIB and MGRV collaborate on $350M venture in Korean rental housing, aiming to capture opportunities in the real estate market.
  • S&P forecasts rebound in China’s property market, driven by increase in secondary sales, indicating positive growth.

Geo Group Inc (GEO) – Friday, Oct 25, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • The GEO Group is a potential investment opportunity with an asymmetric Trump trade, with a price target of $77 in a 2-year time horizon and a blue sky upside target of $103
  • The company’s market cap is $2.1 billion with an enterprise value of $3.9 billion
  • The thesis is based on the potential increase in funding for ICE monitoring under the next administration, potentially leading to the eventual spin-off of the monitoring business, resulting in GEO’s EBITDA potentially more than doubling from the current $500 million through various growth opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Insignia Financial, Kaspi.KZ , Chiba Bank, Get Nice Financial Group Ltd, UBS Group , Philippine Stock Exchange, Aedas Homes SA, SES AI Corp, Truist Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
  • Kaspi.kz: The Kazakh Super-App – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]
  • Chiba Bank – Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through
  • Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – January 2025
  • Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood
  • SES AI Corp.: AI for Discovery Takes a Step Forward with EV OEM Partners
  • Truist Financial Corporation: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD

By David Blennerhassett


Kaspi.kz: The Kazakh Super-App – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Kaspi is a leading financial technology company in Kazakhstan
  • Offers seamless ecosystem of payments, e-commerce, and financial services
  • CEO and co-founder Mikhail Lamsada transformed Kaspi into a dominant platform

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Chiba Bank – Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY
  • There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.
  • Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote

By Arun George

  • The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer. 
  • The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.   
  • The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).  

Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Scape Australia is investing in student housing by launching a $3.8 billion fund to transform the sector.
  • Indian company CtrlS is expanding their data center portfolio by building a fourth facility in Hyderabad.
  • Despite a Q4 slump, Singapore’s real estate investment increased by 35% in 2024, according to Savills.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – January 2025

By Sameer Taneja


Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake’s stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
  • Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain’s strong housing demand and rising property prices.
  • Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as “equitable price”. Long.

SES AI Corp.: AI for Discovery Takes a Step Forward with EV OEM Partners

By Water Tower Research

  • SES AI’s AI for Science platform should generate revenue with the firm’s EV OEM partners beginning in the 4Q24.
  • SES AI announced development contracts totaling up to $10 million (in non-recurring revenue) with two existing automative OEM partners involving the use of firm’s AI for Science materials discovery platform.
  • The new contracts cover the development of both Li-Metal and Li-ion electrolyte chemistries, which itself constitutes an expansion of the firm’s opportunity set and potential total address market. 

Truist Financial Corporation: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Truist Financial Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings reflect a company navigating both opportunities and challenges in a dynamic financial landscape.
  • The company reported net income available to common shareholders of $1.2 billion, or $0.91 per share, and achieved full-year GAAP net income of $4.5 billion, or $3.36 per share.
  • On an adjusted basis, net income was higher, standing at $5 billion or $3.69 per share.

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Daily Brief Financials: Softbank Group, Bank of Nova Scotia, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Fifth Third Ban, PNC Financial Services Group, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari, Bank Of New York Mellon, First Citizens Bcshs Cl A, M & T Bank Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
  • The Bank of Nova Scotia: International Business Realignment Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth
  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers
  • PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers
  • BBVA: Emerging Markets Exploration To Catalyze Their Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers
  • First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
  • M&T Bank: Geographical Market Expansion Could Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor? – Major Drivers


Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
  • Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
  • Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

The Bank of Nova Scotia: International Business Realignment Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) released its fourth quarter results for 2024, indicating a year of both progress and challenges as the institution implements its new enterprise strategy aimed at sustainable, profitable growth and maximizing shareholder value.
  • The bank’s 2024 results reflect modest earnings growth, consistent with its expectations and guidance shared during its Investor Day.
  • On the positive side, Scotiabank reported progress in increasing primary client numbers, an essential element of its growth strategy.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
  • The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
  • With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
  • The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
  • During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

BBVA: Emerging Markets Exploration To Catalyze Their Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2024, presenting a financial snapshot that highlights both strong performance and areas of concern.
  • The bank achieved a net attributable profit of EUR 2,627 million, marking a 26% increase compared to the same quarter last year, albeit a 6% decline from the previous quarter’s record numbers.
  • A notable achievement in this quarter was the tangible book value per share plus dividends, which rose by 16% year-over-year, showcasing BBVA’s capacity for generating shareholder value despite currency depreciation challenges, especially from the Mexican peso.

Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bank of New York Mellon’s (BNY) recent financial performance demonstrates notable achievements while also revealing areas that require attention.
  • In 2024, the company reported record-breaking revenue and net income, with revenue reaching $18.6 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, and net income climbing to $4.3 billion.
  • These figures correspond to a strong return on tangible common equity of 23%.

First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • First Citizens BancShares recently released its third-quarter 2024 earnings, highlighting both positive developments and challenges.
  • The adjusted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $45.87, supported by a resilient net interest margin despite declining accretion income.
  • Positively, the company reported stability and modest growth in its deposit base, especially within the commercial segment linked to the innovation economy.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

M&T Bank: Geographical Market Expansion Could Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • M&T Bank Corp.’s latest financial performance offers a multifaceted perspective on its current standing and future trajectory.
  • Examining both positive and negative aspects of the company’s results reveals a complex financial landscape.
  • On the positive side, M&T Bank demonstrated a steady performance over the fourth quarter and the full year 2024.

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